Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Afrank]

So let me get this straight: "someone" at Astana (rival team) said that AC (rival) has peaked to early while this "someone" in Astana at the same time says that their boy is peaking in the correct time, while a main rival is not?

Oh. No.

The discussion was on the rumor that Contador may have peaked to early that was going around. I remembered someone from Astana (couldn't place the exact name, but was correct it was Slongo) had said basically that before the Tour.

I didn't say I believed that, in fact I think Contador is in good form and timed his peak fine. I was just putting out that perhaps this is where these rumors of Contador peaking too early originated from (I even said that).

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

We can ignore the two earliest 2 results if you want

Just use your useless statistics to cheer yourself up. A shark doesnt need statistics, the shark just attacks!... and you know, a shark can't really read, so it would make it hard for him anyways

 

[LaFlorecita]

I SO hope that you are right...

Porte, Nibali and Valverde will hopefully be able to give AC a race for his money

The irony...... It's unbearable

 

[ggusta]

I SO hope that you are right...

Porte, Nibali and Valverde will hopefully be able to give AC a race for his money

I know, the last 7 years or so with him has been SUCH a colossal bore! Can't wait until someone truly exciting to watch comes along! especially the last couple of years as he has slid into senility, that 2012 Vuelta, seriously dude, pack it the heck in. Can't stand it when these guys stay around too long.

 

[Miburo]

Lolzzz it was funny when Nibali attacked on the final stage, got a minute on Contador, then Contador closed the gap and dropped him

You forgot to add that Nibali had teammates with him. Contador was all alone

 

[mrhender]

You forgot to add that Nibali had teammates with him. Contador was all alone

The thing is It's an entirely different situation now..
Much more at stake, and we know thart wearing yellow for some riders means an extra pair of "wings" (Voeckler for example)

I applaud LaFlorecita for bringing some statistics (was thinking of dooing the same) But in this particular instance I don't think it's very conclusive.. (but of course should be included in the arithmetic..)

My initial take on it, was that I where worried on AC's behalf..
When the show goes down, both will rise the the occasion especially since Nibali has many of the same personal/tactical skills that AC possesses...

The difference between the two is ability..
AC is IMO certainly stronger than Nibs, when the gooing gets "steep"
Nibs however has the opportunity of his life and will ride an extra 10% just on this..
Final result will probably be epic and within a minute/or half..
My prediction is AC, but since he's the one I'am cheering on it's neither conclusive

 

[Rollthedice]

Lolzzz it was funny when Nibali attacked on the final stage, got a minute on Contador, then Contador closed the gap and dropped him

I'm curious if he can replicate that when it truly matters.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I'm curious if he can replicate that when it truly matters.

So am I actually, I'm anxious to see if he can replicate it it might be his last chance to win the Tour

 

[Publicus]

I'm curious if he can replicate that when it truly matters.

So it didn't truly matter then because Nibali was dropped? Or because he wasn't at his peak form?

 

[Rollthedice]

So it didn't truly matter then because Nibali was dropped? Or because he wasn't at his peak form?

Because it was Dauphine and not Le Tour, because Nibali was still far from peak, doing a training stage race, he was dead when Contador passed him. That being said there are so many hard mountain stages this year that anything can happen. Also the underdawg Richie and Talansky will be interesting to follow.

 

[Dannie Underhill]

Speaking of statistics... Earlier during the world cup some bookmaker figured out that you are more likely to be bitten by Suárez than by a shark.

 

[Publicus]

Because it was Dauphine and not Le Tour, because Nibali was still far from peak, doing a training stage race, he was dead when Contador passed him. That being said there are so many hard mountain stages this year that anything can happen. Also the underdawg Richie and Talansky will be interesting to follow.

lol. ok. that's what I thought you meant. I don't think Nibali's top level is comparable with Contador's. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but if Nibali can't drop Wiggins, he's going to have a hard time with Contador. A real hard time.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

lol. ok. that's what I thought you meant. I don't think Nibali's top level is comparable with Contador's. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but if Nibali can't drop Wiggins, he's going to have a hard time with Contador. I real hard time.

He will ahve birdsong and Kangert/Scarponi with him almost all the way to the finishing line. He doesn't have to follow AC all the way. Just loose 10 sec here, and perhaps 20 sec there. And go for an opportunistic attack on stage 16 and we are set for a blast of a final tt

 

[Netserk]

He will ahve birdsong and Kangert/Scarponi with him almost all the way to the finishing line. He doesn't have to follow AC all the way. Just loose 10 sec here, and perhaps 20 sec there. And go for an opportunistic attack on stage 16 and we are set for a blast of a final tt

Then he'll have to be really slow

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Then he'll have to be really slow

Kangert were stronger than Birdsong on stage 2 in the dauphine. The last rider not to join the front group when Froome wnet balistic. If he has improved in the same manner as most Astana riders have to their gts he should be up there for a loong time. Scarponi will be there for sure, because he is Scarponi

 

[Publicus]

He will ahve birdsong and Kangert/Scarponi with him almost all the way to the finishing line. He doesn't have to follow AC all the way. Just loose 10 sec here, and perhaps 20 sec there. And go for an opportunistic attack on stage 16 and we are set for a blast of a final tt

In some ways I do hope it comes down to the final ITT. Nothing like a dramatic finish. I expect Nibali to use every bit of cunning and guile in his arsenal and Contador to do the same. Should make for some interesting racing.

 

[arvc40]

I expect Contador to rip the field to bitz.

 

[Rollthedice]

lol. ok. that's what I thought you meant. I don't think Nibali's top level is comparable with Contador's. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but if Nibali can't drop Wiggins, he's going to have a hard time with Contador. A real hard time.

With Wiggins it was a long time ago, Sir Brad riding the strongest train since USPS. Last year a little rain earlier in Giro made it impossible for us to see who drops who on Tre Cime di Lavaredo. Anyway since Wiggins will likely not ride soon a GT against Nibali it doesn't matter. Regarding Contador I'm sure there's no problem for him to drop Nibali but he will have a hard time puting minutes in him. That is if indeed Nibali is as strong as Giro 2013 and Contador has his winning form back.

 

[UpTheRoad]

I expect Contador to rip the field to bitz.

He can't be the first to try every stage. I think he should let Porte, Talansky, Valverde (he might be waiting a while on that one) and others have the first try on some stages. Even the second try if the others are feeling aggressive.

It would help Contador's cause if the others weakened Astana's helpers and Nibali a bit before he attacks. They know he's going, so they might just wait it out until he has had enough.

What would not help enough is if Sky got its train going trying to wear out Astana with the hard tempo riding. Astana should have to do *some* of that grind. It might drive away the Astana helpers, but it might not work until too little road is left to make up enough time.

Saxo should not hit the front until Nibali is a bit isolated. That means no Roche or Rogers driving the group until a few others have taken their turns and dropped a few Astana riders.

 

[Red Rick]

lol. ok. that's what I thought you meant. I don't think Nibali's top level is comparable with Contador's. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but if Nibali can't drop Wiggins, he's going to have a hard time with Contador. A real hard time.

This is bull****. Nibali is a way better rider than two years ago

 

[maxmartin]

He can't be the first to try every stage. I think he should let Porte, Talansky, Valverde (he might be waiting a while on that one) and others have the first try on some stages. Even the second try if the others are feeling aggressive.

It would help Contador's cause if the others weakened Astana's helpers and Nibali a bit before he attacks. They know he's going, so they might just wait it out until he has had enough.

What would not help enough is if Sky got its train going trying to wear out Astana with the hard tempo riding. Astana should have to do *some* of that grind. It might drive away the Astana helpers, but it might not work until too little road is left to make up enough time.

Saxo should not hit the front until Nibali is a bit isolated. That means no Roche or Rogers driving the group until a few others have taken their turns and dropped a few Astana riders.

Nah, see it is more likely Porte, Talansky, Valverde will ride against AC, without AC they have more chances to stand on the podium and they are ahead of him in GC anyway. lol

 

[dduff442]

The thing is that Astana have two riders at the top of the GC. I don't see why they need to drive anything when Fuglsang can instead attack.

 

[maxmartin]

The thing is that Astana have two riders at the top of the GC. I don't see why they need to drive anything when Fuglsang can instead attack.

because the real boss would be very unhappy

 

[dduff442]

I don't know about that. Obviously it's a team sport and Nibali's way ahead of Fuglsang in terms of talent. If the DS's instructions are for Fuglsang to attack I don't see why both he and Nibali shouldn't be perfectly happy about that.

For a 2nd GC candidate to attack like that is a defensive move. It get's Nibali someone up the road and forces the other teams to drive the pace. And Astana still have Kangert, Scarponi, Westra etc. in reserve.

 

[maxmartin]

I don't know about that. Obviously it's a team sport and Nibali's way ahead of Fuglsang in terms of talent. If the DS's instructions are for Fuglsang to attack I don't see why both he and Nibali shouldn't be perfectly happy about that.

For a 2nd GC candidate to attack like that is a defensive move. It get's Nibali someone up the road and forces the other teams to drive the pace. And Astana still have Kangert, Scarponi, Westra etc. in reserve.

i don't know if nibbles is way ahead of Fulgsang, so far I am very impressive with birdsong. Even on the cobbles, Nibbles is hanging his dear life onto F's wheel. I think Astana wants play if defensively at this point, if AC attacks F and VN will chase, if VN falters maybe F can fill his shoes. Why at this early stage to throw away your second best GC position?