I know it sounds dreadful, but actually, Im quite pleased that there is a reason for AC not looking so happy or riding so well. I know a crash sets him back, but he is not going to lose all form from it, just needs recovery time.
As for this race, yes, I'd love to see him win; I want to see him win all the time and rampaging all over Italy crushing Sky domestiques would make my weekend. But I'd trade every race between now and the Giro for him to win that well and have enough in the tank for the Tour. And I'd trade most of the non GT races he's ever won for him to win the double (with perhaps last years epic TA stage 5 kept, because I love that stage.) It's not that I don't rate them, but I want him to crown his stellar career with something which makes his supremacy unquestionable to even the most redoubted naysayer.
You have to take risks and be prepared to lay it on the line to do something amazing, and he's going for that. I'm with ilovecycling.