Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Miburo]

To be fair betting Contador before this stage was probably an absolute steal. Guess the odds are now something like 1.25?

I don't think it was that big of a steal. If Contador had a better team he prob would have won this. I don't think gilbert would have survive that 14% climb if the pace was really high.

 

[SeriousSam]

To be fair betting Contador before this stage was probably an absolute steal. Guess the odds are now something like 1.25?

Sure, but the best would have been moments after the crash.Here's the history of the odds (decimal odds = 1/implied probability)

It's really just hindsight though. If someone had the ability to know such things before they happen, not afterwards, there's no excuse not to be very rich.

 

[Carols]

Friday’s 147km stage is the last chance for the sprinters to strut their stuff before the mountains and Milan. Contador is already thinking about Saturday’s time trial and revealed he will test his modified time trial position in his hotel in Vicenza. He is ready to sacrifice a few watts to ride the 59.4km in a more comfortable position that takes the strain off his damaged left shoulder.

“I still have to look at the time trial course in detail. It’s a big day and I think Richie has big ambitions, as does Uran. So do others and so do Astana,” he said

“In my case, tonight Faustino my mechanic will bring my [time trial] bike up to my room so we can check the the position to see if it’s comfortable. If it isn't the best, I could start with a position that isn’t the most aero position for me. It could mean I lose 10 or 15 watts but it is what it is and I still hope to do a good time trial. We'll see how well on Saturday.”

Hummm, either he doesn't trust the shoulder yet or he is trying to give the competition a false sense of security. Then when he hammers them they are even more demoralized.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-upbeat-after-taking-more-time-from-aru-at-the-giro-ditalia

 

[LaFlorecita]

"I still have to look at the time trial course in detail."

But he did a recon

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, but you still need to ride it on the day to get the right feel of it.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

"I still have to look at the time trial course in detail."

But he did a recon

Which he filmed most likely during the recon so he wants to look at it again.

You think contador is a genius who remembers every corner of the ITT?

 

[Publicus]

Friday’s 147km stage is the last chance for the sprinters to strut their stuff before the mountains and Milan. Contador is already thinking about Saturday’s time trial and revealed he will test his modified time trial position in his hotel in Vicenza. He is ready to sacrifice a few watts to ride the 59.4km in a more comfortable position that takes the strain off his damaged left shoulder.

“I still have to look at the time trial course in detail. It’s a big day and I think Richie has big ambitions, as does Uran. So do others and so do Astana,” he said

“In my case, tonight Faustino my mechanic will bring my [time trial] bike up to my room so we can check the the position to see if it’s comfortable. If it isn't the best, I could start with a position that isn’t the most aero position for me. It could mean I lose 10 or 15 watts but it is what it is and I still hope to do a good time trial. We'll see how well on Saturday.”

Hummm, either he doesn't trust the shoulder yet or he is trying to give the competition a false sense of security. Then when he hammers them they are even more demoralized.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-upbeat-after-taking-more-time-from-aru-at-the-giro-ditalia

I think he's just putting out false information ahead of the time trial. Judging by his actions today on the podium, the shoulder feels better than it did on the rest day.

 

[richwagmn]

Re:

It was a Grand Day to be an Alberto fan, he made all except PhilGill look like donkeys . And he opened the champagne, so his shoulder is doing better.

I really enjoy watching Contador putting pressure on Aru right now. Sure it's only seconds, but it has to be getting Aru right now (mentally as much physically). Same with Porte.

it's so enjoyable to see a racer who's riding on instinct and not just slavishly watching his power meter.

Contador is looking stronger each day. Aru seems to be fading a bit though I think expectations were too high for such a young rider (he'll be back). Who knows what's going with Porte? In past GTs, he's always had one really bad day. I don't think we've seen that day yet.

 

[ggusta]

Friday’s 147km stage is the last chance for the sprinters to strut their stuff before the mountains and Milan. Contador is already thinking about Saturday’s time trial and revealed he will test his modified time trial position in his hotel in Vicenza. He is ready to sacrifice a few watts to ride the 59.4km in a more comfortable position that takes the strain off his damaged left shoulder.

“I still have to look at the time trial course in detail. It’s a big day and I think Richie has big ambitions, as does Uran. So do others and so do Astana,” he said

“In my case, tonight Faustino my mechanic will bring my [time trial] bike up to my room so we can check the the position to see if it’s comfortable. If it isn't the best, I could start with a position that isn’t the most aero position for me. It could mean I lose 10 or 15 watts but it is what it is and I still hope to do a good time trial. We'll see how well on Saturday.”

Hummm, either he doesn't trust the shoulder yet or he is trying to give the competition a false sense of security. Then when he hammers them they are even more demoralized.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-upbeat-after-taking-more-time-from-aru-at-the-giro-ditalia

I think he's just putting out false information ahead of the time trial. Judging by his actions today on the podium, the shoulder feels better than it did on the rest day.

Politicians and political 'Spin Doctors' could learn from him. The only thing his competitors need to know: if it's a GT and he's in it, they're probably not going to win. Which can be a hard enough concept to deal with.

 

[sienna]

Re:

It was a Grand Day to be an Alberto fan, he made all except PhilGill look like donkeys . And he opened the champagne, so his shoulder is doing better.

He'll win this going away but definitely won't win Le Tour.

 

[ferryman]

Re: Re:

It was a Grand Day to be an Alberto fan, he made all except PhilGill look like donkeys . And he opened the champagne, so his shoulder is doing better.

He'll win this going away but definitely won't win Le Tour.

If he wins this going away, which he looks like he could do after a couple of big efforts on Sat/Sun, I would be very very worried if I was racing against him in July. Or indeed August/September

 

[The Hitch]

Meaningless bit of maths done by me for no reason, looked at all itts Berto has done in gts since 2007

Since 2007 Contador has finished in an mean average of 6.5th place in itts. His median is 4, and his mode is 2.

 

[Weapons of @ss Destruction]

Re: Re:

Who knows what's going with Porte? In past GTs, he's always had one really bad day. I don't think we've seen that day yet.

I know what's going on with Porte. He mentally imploded when the going got tough, and panicked himself into poor decision-making. Maybe he hasn't had his customary poor physical day yet, but he's more than made up for it with his day of mental ineptitude.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Meaningless bit of maths done by me for no reason, looked at all itts Berto has done in gts since 2007

Since 2007 Contador has finished in an mean average of 6.5th place in itts. His median is 4, and his mode is 2.

Actually that's a nice thing to know. Seems like recently more have been talking about how bad he is in a tt. Perhaps his mode will be further solidified....

 

[Jelantik]

Re:

I think he'll be tempted to ensure that he has net time gain on everyone that originates from strength, as opposed to the TTT and especially penalties. I'm hoping Porte has a stinker in the TT and then cracks so that he doesn't have to invest a lot of energy to accomplish this

I agreed. I don't think he is thinking about saving energy for the tour yet. Once he established his hierarchy among the GC contender by showing who's the strongest (especially against Porte), then he can start measuring his effort for the rest of the race. Because he knows, no one is going to question his Giro achievement if he demonstrates his pedal to the metal to smoke other GC, particularly Porte.

On the other hand, Porte hasn't been in his bad day yet, just having a bad luck. Today looks like everyone struggles except Contador. Who knows, maybe stage 15, the gauntlet finally drops. Certainly curious to see Aru struggling back to back stage in the rain. Wondering how he is going to bounce back on stage 15 if it's raining again. Should be interesting, if it's just he is not eating enough today or he starts feeling fatique (maybe he should crash in Porte's caravan). Uran seems to be better today. Saturday, we will finally got a confirmation if all the talk about Porte and Uran will take lots of time to Contador/Aru in ITT will materialize. *thank God*

 

[Jelantik]

contador earned a new nick name: "anaconda" ... Seems perfect to describe him now.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/05/news/one-more-squeeze-contador-tightening-grip-on-pink-jersey_371118

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Who knows what's going with Porte? In past GTs, he's always had one really bad day. I don't think we've seen that day yet.

I know what's going on with Porte. He mentally imploded when the going got tough, and panicked himself into poor decision-making. Maybe he hasn't had his customary poor physical day yet, but he's more than made up for it with his day of mental ineptitude.

Mental implosion equals a six second loss ? So Aru must have given up altogether ?

 

[Singer01]

if contador has a lead of less than 2 minutes after ITT, do we think he just follows wheels for rest of tour, or puts his foot down and puts it all out of discussion?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

To be fair betting Contador before this stage was probably an absolute steal. Guess the odds are now something like 1.25?

Sure, but the best would have been moments after the crash.Here's the history of the odds (decimal odds = 1/implied probability)

It's really just hindsight though. If someone had the ability to know such things before they happen, not afterwards, there's no excuse not to be very rich.

I put some money on him @ 4.50 when all this hysteria with his shoulder was going on

 

[Weapons of @ss Destruction]

Re: Re:

Mental implosion equals a six second loss ? So Aru must have given up altogether ?

We're talking about different stages.

 

[No_Balls]

Re:

if contador has a lead of less than 2 minutes after ITT, do we think he just follows wheels for rest of tour, or puts his foot down and puts it all out of discussion?

He will definitively go for a stage win or probably two: Madonna and Aprica for obvious reasons, he is after a stage victory and at Madonna he will unleash himself in honour of his hero Pantani. Then we have Mortirolo where he have his own name printed so needs to boss there. Besides its a stage every one wants to win.

And then we have Sestrieres...

 

[Kwibus]

Alberto is looking really good. I would be surprised if Porte or Uran would be faster then Alberto in the TT.

Actually I think Alberto has a serious shot of winning the TT. Besides Porte and Uran are there any other good TT specialists in this Giro?
Clement? Cant see him beating Contador and yesterday he crashed hard.
Ludvigson? No way!

Who do I miss?

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Alberto is looking really good. I would be surprised if Porte or Uran would be faster then Alberto in the TT.

Actually I think Laberto has a serious shot of winning the TT. Besides Porte and Uran are there any other good TT specialists in this Giro?

There was Kung (although he's a bit of uncharted territory in such a TT, I believe), but he DNFed yesterday

I concur with you that Contador has a legit shot at winning it, he's looking excellent.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yeah Küng was my bet for the ITT if the TT was 20km shorter, I think Alberto would win, but I have no idea how well he'll cope with 60km though. He should still be top 5 though.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Alberto is looking really good. I would be surprised if Porte or Uran would be faster then Alberto in the TT.

Actually I think Alberto has a serious shot of winning the TT. Besides Porte and Uran are there any other good TT specialists in this Giro?
Clement? Cant see him beating Contador and yesterday he crashed hard.
Ludvigson? No way!

Who do I miss?

Cataldo, Zakarin, Kiryienka
The field is looking a bit weak I must admit