Kwibus said:
Of the big 4 I only really doubt Alberto's form for the Tour. I'm afraid he won't be at his best tbh.
I really hope he proofs me wrong of course.
I think part of that reticence has more to do with what happened at the TdF in 2011 (which was more due to him going all-out during one of the most difficult Giros of all time, by many accounts) and 2013, which was a terrible year for Alberto due to circumstances (I'm afraid) we will not know until he retires and writes a book.
All in all, seeing what he did to Chris in Spain last year, Alberto is in very good shape. NOW, IMO, his chances are dependent on him getting out of the first week unscathed, preferably with a time difference to the other three. If he gets a minute on everyone else prior to the first mountain stage, he's nailing that sucker to the ground and will not let go.
I don't think his TdF is going to be won "going 2009 Verbier" on every mountain finish. I think his potential win will be based on taking time here and there, letting the race dictate how much time he is going to put on someone else.
I highly suspect Alberto is going to take more time from the others going downhill than uphill. His attacks at the Giro and the Route du Sud lead me to believe he has been training hard at it. At one point, at the RdS, during the last mountain stage, he was putting 1 second per tight turn on Quintana.