I don't know. You summed it up pretty neatly. Unfortunately we don't have any indication of how he was on the eve of the Tour start, while in 2014 he dropped everyone in Gerardmer. I don't think his level was far off 2014 in the Dauphine. That Dauphine had weak competition, apart from Froome, nd I think that if Col du Beal had been steeper, he'd been dropped as well. The rest of the competition was also better and closer in 2016. I think the major difference compared to 2014 is the kind of injury he has. Bone injury is obviously more nasty, but if it's a lot clearer if you're back to riding at the right moment. Also, due to the crash, he probably went out the Tour at a lower form than in 2014.
Otoh, I think the being able to ride the Vuelta a Burgos is a major advantage though.
Don't think he'll go faster than Farrapona or Ancares, do think he'll go faster than Covadonga