Alberto Contador suspended until August 2012 (loses all results July 2010 - Jan 2012)

[sniper]

I think the main problem with phthalate-based blood doping tests is that you have to have two things with such a test: sensitivity and selectivity.

While there is now a considerable amount of evidence that there are testing methods that are highly sensitive to phthalates, the selectivity is somewhat harder. So, if someone transfuses using bags with phthalates, we are pretty sure that we are going to detect it (high sensitivity). At the same time, if we have a positive test, we can't be sure whether the source was really a blood bag or some other source containing phthalates (unknown selectivity).

As I'm not aware of base rates or prior probabilities, any guess towards the probability of blood doping, given Contador's positive plasticizer test, is merely a wild one. For all I know, he could have gotten a positive plasticizer test by sucking to much on a rubber band (plasticizers are used during rubber fabrication) or breathing in too much of that new-car smell (caused by evaporating plasticizers).

yep. positive plasticizer test on a restday prior to the tour's final stages.
just a coincidence

to be sure, it wasn't a wild guess, it was a scientifically supported guess.
or a-big-lot-of-common-sense-guess, if you will.
not a wild guess.

 

[airstream]

sorry, is anything known about why plasticizers test was swept under the carpet? as far as i remember, when the info about it came to light (september 2010), WADA planned to make it valid during 2011, but still no changes.

 

[LaFlorecita]

yep. positive plasticizer test on a restday prior to the tour's final stages.
just a coincidence

to be sure, it wasn't a wild guess, it was a scientifically supported guess.
or a-big-lot-of-common-sense-guess, if you will.
not a wild guess.

Whatever you want...

 

[sniper]

Whatever you want...

wasn't talking to you

 

[Nilsson]

sorry, is anything known about why plasticizers test was swept under the carpet? as far as i remember, when the info about it came to light (september 2010), WADA planned to make it valid during 2011, but still no changes.

Because it's not official evidence. The test isn't validated (and will never be as well). In the Contador case it also seems to be that they had to correct the initial outcome...

 

[Merckx index]

I think the main problem with phthalate-based blood doping tests is that you have to have two things with such a test: sensitivity and selectivity.

While there is now a considerable amount of evidence that there are testing methods that are highly sensitive to phthalates, the selectivity is somewhat harder. So, if someone transfuses using bags with phthalates, we are pretty sure that we are going to detect it (high sensitivity). At the same time, if we have a positive test, we can't be sure whether the source was really a blood bag or some other source containing phthalates (unknown selectivity).

As I'm not aware of base rates or prior probabilities, any guess towards the probability of blood doping, given Contador's positive plasticizer test, is merely a wild one. For all I know, he could have gotten a positive plasticizer test by sucking to much on a rubber band (plasticizers are used during rubber fabrication) or breathing in too much of that new-car smell (caused by evaporating plasticizers).

There are literally dozens of studies of DEHP, some of them involving thousands of individuals (and some of which were linked in this forum last year) that show that the levels achieved following transfusion are quite rare, found in less than 1% of the population. Some of these studies have included subjects known to be exposed daily to unusually high levels of phthalates in various types of industries, and even in these cases levels approaching those of transfusion are uncommon. It is quite clear that transfusion results in far higher levels than sporadic breathing or skin contact.

Legally, it's understandable that high levels of DEHP metabolites could not be used to prove blood doping. But that doesn't mean that the evidence for transfusion isn't very high. Legally, the 6-8 samples with EPO in them can't be used to sanction Armstrong, either. But scientifically, the evidence that he used that drug (long since corroborated by other types of evidence, of course) is very strong.

 

[LaFlorecita]

wasn't talking to you

Doesn't matter this is a forum. I can reply to whoever I want, whenever I want.

 

[sniper]

i know, that's why I was taking the effort to bring you the news that I wasn't talking to you.

 

[ronsqeh]

Doesn't matter this is a forum. I can reply to whoever I want, whenever I want.

you're a lowlife w.hore. keep defending that cheater cheatador you f.ucking piece of s.hit

 

[GJB123]

I stopped reading when they speak of very high levels of CB in his body.

 

[LaFlorecita]

What about this for a story:

Butcher threatens action after cyclist Contador's claim of contaminated meat

Pathetic bulls.hit.

 

[El Pistolero]

And Kolobnev gets off the hook

 

[Andynonomous]

Don't know if this has been posted.

Mystery witness knows some damning revelations ?

 

[sniper]

Don't know if this has been posted.

Mystery witness knows some damning revelations ?

yes it was, a couple of threads down, thread titled el enigmatico senor X

 

[sniper]

Don't know if this has been posted.

Mystery witness knows some damning revelations ?

yes it was. a couple of threads down, a thread enigmatically titled "el enigma del senor X".

 

[sniper]

I stopped reading when they speak of very high levels of CB in his body.

Didn't somebody in another thread say something you should be terribly upset about?

I have always thought the Humo article was correct. WADA's case essentially mirrored it. I would not be surprised if the source was also a witness

You cried a river when I said the same thing. And now you remain silent? The courageous GBJ.

 

[Walkman]

Pathetic bulls.hit.

Uhm...why might I ask?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Uhm...why might I ask?

Don't even get me started.

 

[Walkman]

Don't even get me started.

Please, go ahead. I am interested in what you have to say.

 

[GJB123]

Didn't somebody in another thread say something you should be terribly upset about?



You cried a river when I said the same thing. And now you remain silent? The courageous GBJ.

Okay, I'll take the bait (besides it is GJB and not GBJ, but knowing your reading skills that s no surprise).

From the CAS-vesrict it seems highly unlikely that it is someone that has something to say similar to what an Astana-employee allegedly said to Humo. So no need to get your knickers in a twist. I know you are desperately trying ti find corroboration for the transfusion theory and wash;t going to point it out, since it would make you look even more stupid than usual, but here still is no clear evidence that he CB came form a contaminated blood transfusion. Quite the contrary really. Don't take my word for it, just read the CAS-verdict and read the contributions by people like MI, python and Nilsson. Oh wait, the CAS-verdict was sold to AC who went training in Israel to get a 2-year ban but with the consolation that the CB came from food supplements.

You are pathetic indeed. Happy now?

Regards
GJ

PS just in case you were wondering. Some of us actually do have a life next to the cycling news forum so I am not going to react to each and very brain fart you post here.

 

[hrotha]

Pathetic bulls.hit.

What's pathetic is that Contador could make up a fairy tale or alternatively make a baseless wild guess about the origin of the clen, without thinking of the consequences for anyone but himself. What if his customers had decided his shop wasn't safe because of the bad publicity Contador randomly decided to put on him?

 

[Red Rick]

Pathetic bulls.hit.

Are you talking to yourself, cause this is very logical. The guy was accused of something which couldn't be proved, he has to make up for the negative publicity.

Besides, i think you need to get some fresh air

 

[hrotha]

Despite what I said in my previous post, I don't think he has much of a case, considering he's on record saying this hasn't affected his sales, and I do suspect he's looking for some extra publicity. But I don't think sueing is a preposterous idea either.

 

[Porphyry]

Despite what I said in my previous post, I don't think he has much of a case, considering he's on record saying this hasn't affected his sales, and I do suspect he's looking for some extra publicity. But I don't think sueing is a preposterous idea either.

On the other hand, one thing that the case has brought to light is that there's clenbuterol in the world meat supply. WADA, various national anti-doping agencies and the London Olympics have issued warnings to athletes to be careful eating meat. Warnings have included the EU.

Also, the butcher said that people were coming to his shop to buy the beef so that they could be "strong at home." Dunno about suing.

 

[Porphyry]

You say WADA have included the EU in their warnings but really WADA only recognizes places like China and Mexico with a clenbuterol problem. Thats how the four Mexican football players were cleared last year when they tested positive for it.

They dont recognize the EU with a clenbuterol problem and i think any future positive tests in the EU with this substance will be treated as an offence.

Didn't specify that WADA warned about EU, but rather listed some sources of warnings and some targets. There are various examples. Warnings have been issued for caution in eating meat in EU as well as China and Mexico.

FYI, today from Australia's ASADA: http://asada.govspace.gov.au/2012/03/01/contaminated-meat/