ClassicomanoLuigi said:
This other paper, specifically testing
trained cyclists who have asthma, says that the research by Berge,s
et al. was important in establishing the 1000ng/ml WADA salbutamol limit:
https://respiratory-research.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12931-015-0315-2
and they note about the specific gravity ...
"urine density correction of urine salbutamol concentration must be considered to minimize the effect of this biological condition on the anti-doping judgment criteria [19]. While this correction was not applied to urine salbutamol concentration proposed in the article by Berges et al. [11] that was used to define the actual upper threshold in the WADA prohibition list, we considered this potent bias and we corrected the urine salbutamol concentration for urine density"
... and the authors go on to conclude that the 1000ng/ml limit for salbutamol is
too generous and propose
reducing the limit to 500ng/ml instead. So, they don't believe that asthmatic cyclists on a normal therapeutic regimen would reach 1000+ ng/ml accidentally.
Either way, Froome will have big trouble in replicating a 2000ng/ml result, in an in-vivo lab test starting with a believable therapeutic dose
Thanks for this link.* It’s important to emphasize that because of the 800 ug/12 hour rule, 800 ug is effectively the largest allowed dose, though 1600/24 hr is allowed. This is because if you take 800 ug, you can’t take any more for 12 hours, and by this time, most of the original dose has been excreted. So maximum urine levels should basically be what is possible after a single 800 ug dose. This is why they find that 500 ug/ml is probably sufficient as a limit, and it’s why I pointed out in my long post above that Froome’s previous test results might be critical. Though he was always below the 1000 ng/ml limit, if he was > 500 very often, he likely was taking more than the allowed. It’s the same point I made with Petacchi, who has admitted (because he doesn’t see the problem) that his levels even before he triggered the positive were sometimes > 500. I’ve seen another study where they recommended an even lower limit, of about 250.
*The authors seemed to have messed up Fig. 3, though. On the figure itself, the dark and light bars are identified as rest and exercise, respectively. But in the legend to the figure, they're said to indicate before and after correction for SG, with a and b of the figure corresponding to rest and exercise, respectively. It seems that the legend is correct, though this is at odds with the use of the color bars in Fig. 2. Don't know how this glaring error got past the peer reviewers. Note that exercise increases the peak urine values relative to rest, as you'd expect due to increased metabolic rate in general. So it is important to run tests like this that apply to athletes on exercising, and one could argue that the rate will increase even more in elite racers. Still, as I note below, Froome and any other rider with a large number of tests in effect provides his own baseline, sort of like a passport.
Oude Geuze said:
A couple of thoughts, blood transfusion theory seems unlikely. Half life is 4hours, peak plasma concentration 2 hours and no one would do a transfusion in the morning before a race. Also, as has been pointed out, the dosages would have to be extreme as you take plasma concentration divided by 10 (unless it’s pure hematocrit in which case much lower still), the you need to distribute the reminder to extra vascular space diluting again by a factor 4-5. So it’s a problem if it contained trace amounts of illegal substance, but would never substantially increase concentration in this case.
Yes, this is an excellent summary of the situation. It later occurred to me that I should have mentioned the fact that if Froome did transfuse, there would certainly be more than one half-life between then and when was tested. I don’t think he would do it immediately before the stage began; probably the preceding evening would be preferred, in which case most of the drug would be gone by testing.
Froome probably uses a nebulizer, in the ER 2.5mg is a basic dose for COPD patients, 5mg also common and sometimes 7.5mg. This is usually given 4-6 times daily, but this is during critical illness in a patient with high tolerance for the drug. I don’t have any personal experience with elite athletes, but it’s reasonable to think they want large doses, as normal regimen would be designed to control symptoms in an average person. An average person wouldn’t experience the difference between a forced expiratory rate of 0.8 and 0.9/second, but an elite athlete certainly would. Also, breathing heavily would be causing irritation and exacerbation, dry air and allergens would as well. So say your body is adapted somewhat to beta2 agonists from long term use, you are doing a 3 week your, allergens/exertion/dryness/illness flares up your asthma and you might be puffing the inhaler a lot more than usual in order to be symptom free. Also taken into account the various ways in which a urine sample may yield different concentrations of solute based on a wide variety of physiological factors, and freak/anomalous readings might occur.
More good points, particularly the issue of tolerance, and the fact that small differences in breathing are critical for an elite athlete. Again it raises the question, why not apply for a TUE? I find it very interesting that Froome hasn’t said, “this never would have been an issue if I had a TUE, which I easily could have qualified for.” Why not? As I said before, I think because he couldn’t qualify. In fact, I'm still waiting for evidence that he actually used an inhaler before 2011. The earliest reference I see is in the Kimmage interview in 2014, when he mentions using it in the Dauphine, but says he never mentioned it in his book because he didn't think it was a big deal. OK, maybe, but if he's had asthma since childhood, surely it wouldn't be that difficult to confirm?
I don’t agree with the bolded, though. While there might be considerable variation, I don’t buy that on one single stage this variation is more than double—probably four times what should be typical—the level on any other stage. Again, he should have been tested nearly twenty times in the Vuelta; for that matter, I guess he’s been tested dozens of times in his career, considering how many days he’s worn the MJ. While that does increase the probability of an unusually high value by chance, it also means there will be more somewhat high values. E.g., if, say, 500 ng/ml was his average value, a 2000 ng/ml value might possibly occur as a result of a statistical fluke, but almost certainly in that case there would be one or more other values > 1000 ng/ml. As you increase the number of samples, you increase the probable size of the largest outlier, but you also increase the probable size of the second largest, third largest, etc. A normal curve spreads out.
In fact, though, I doubt that a 2000 ng/ml value could result from a fluke, even over, say, one hundred tests. The standard deviations obtained from testing pools of subjects indicates that individual variation would not result in such a high value except in exceptionally rare circumstances (e.g., in that link I discussed above, the SD of the exercise values corresponds to a level of > 1000 ng/ml occurring only about once in 20,000 individuals). I doubt that the variation within an individual is going to be any greater. Yes, lab conditions avoid some of the factors found on the road, but unless one can specify what these other factors might be, I think it’s mostly hand waving. Dehydration is probably the most important factor, it can have a major effect on values, but as we've discussed, that does not seem to have been an issue with Froome's reading. Note that in that study above, where subjects were encouraged to drink freely--just as riders in a race would attempt to do--their urine SG values were normal in the middle of the exercise session, and actually below normal half an hour after the end of it.
Another way of putting this is to say that the most relevant study bearing on Froome is Froome himself. We presumably have dozens of samples that he gave following performance on the road under all kinds of conditions. Whatever peculiarities may have resulted from either these road conditions, or because of Froome himself, they're all accounted for in his samples. Taken together, they constitute sort of a passport, with an individualized baseline, a point I think Ross Tucker made in his SoS comments on Froome's test. Yet despite all this, one sample has a level more than twice that of any other. This would certainly be a red flag in any passport test, and it should be here, too, regardless of what any lab test of other individuals says.