Only one month to go before the season ends which means that the probably most exciting part of the season starts. Thats because a) the fight for the crystal globes starts and especially the overall world cups are still very open and b) this is the time of the season in which the dominators of the first half start to get tired so there are usually more skiers who can win races.
After a parallel event in Stockholm next Tuesday the men have 2 downhills, 3 super g's, 5 (!!!) giant slaloms, and 2 slaloms left while the ladies have only 1 downhill, 3 super g's, 2 giant slaloms, 2 slaloms and 2 super combines left.
Here is my attempt to predict the rest of the season:
MEN:
overall:
Although Kristoffersen is only less than 100 points behind Hirscher I think he is the very obvious underdog. Thats mainly because the remaining races clearly favor Hirscher. The Austrian is probably in the better gs shape and he can make points in super-g's so he has 8 (or rather 7 because I doubt that he will go to Kvitfjell) races which favor him, while Kristofferson has only 2 slaloms left and is almost 100 points behind. Nevertheless Hirscher was pretty bad in Japan, and if he doesnt find his shape again and Kristoffersen skis on like he has done in the rest of the season this could become very close.
downhill:
This could be very interesting. With Fill, Jansrud, Theaux, Paris and Fayed there are probably 5 athletes who will compete for the win in this discipline. Fill has a good advantage of 69 points on Theaux and 73 on Jansrud but especially the Norwegian is usually very strong in Kvitfjell, and the slope in St.Moritz should be good for him too. Fill is still my favorite because of his advantage but I give Jansrud almost equal chances.
super-g:
This discipline is even more interesting, especially because the leader is still Svindal and his advantage of 120 points could be enough to win this competition without competing in the last 4 events. What makes this discipline even more interesting is the fact that more than 15 athletes are within 100 points to the currently 2nd Andrew Weibrecht. Another interesting factor in this discipline might be Marcel Hirscher. He is currently on 8th place and has only 46 points disadvantage to Weibrecht. Moreover the super g in hinterstoder fits him perfectly (to be honest, IMO he is the favorite there) and he usually also is very good in the last super g of the season and if he wins next weekend I can imagine that he will also go to Kvitjell. Nevertheless the favorite is in my opinion Svindal because making 110 points in 3 races isnt even that easy. Besides Svindal I also give Weibrecht and Kilde a good chance.
giant slalom:
Hirscher is obviously the big favorite with over 100 points advantage, but with 5 races to go this is actually still very open as well. Muffat jeandet, Faivre, Kristoffersen, Pinturault and Neureuther are all within 80 points so they all have a chance. I can't really say who of them has the biggest chance to beat Hirscher but its definitely possible that one of them does.
slalom:
Kristoffersen
LADIES:
overall:
Believe it or not but Gut is my favorite. I think the two super combines and the giant slaloms favor her and 2 of the 3 super g' are on slopes which should fit her too. Moreover there is only one downhill left, which is (as well as the third super-g) on a slope on which Gut is usually good too. I know that Vonn has a great shape but I have the feeling that she doesnt have the best nerves this year. I know she has been in this situation very often while its Gut's first chance to win the overall world cup, which might be an advantage for Vonn, but I have the feeling that the fact that she just isnt as dominant as she was before Garmisch might be a bad sign for her.
downhill:
Vonn
Super g:
Vonn has an advantage of about 60 points on Gut, everyone else is too far behind. This could be interesting because, as I wrote it above, the next two Super-g's should fit Gut better than Vonn. On the other hand Vonn still has a monster shape in which she actually is the favorite on every slope of the world, so it will be extremely difficult to beat the American.
giant slalom:
I honestly hope that Brem can win this because she just deserves to win this competition after being in the top ten of every single gs since about 2 years. (Moreover she is the only female Austrian hope to win a globe so ofc I root for her
). However IMO the favorite is Rebensburg, because her shape gets better and better and with less than 40 points of disadvantage and 2 races to go that means that if she wins both races Brem can do whatever she wants, but the giant slalom globe will go to Germany.
Slalom:
Hansdotter is the big favorite with a 99 points advantage but if she skis out (which is always possible in a slalom) Zuzulova and Strachova are back in business. Moreover it could be crucial that the advantage is 99 points and not 101 because it means that that if Hansdotter gets 4th two times and Zuzulova wins both remaining slaloms she also wins the slalom globe by 1 point. Just to remind you, in 2014 Hirscher lost the giant slalom world cup to Ligety although he was 100 points in front, with only 2 races to go, so it isnt over yet.
After a parallel event in Stockholm next Tuesday the men have 2 downhills, 3 super g's, 5 (!!!) giant slaloms, and 2 slaloms left while the ladies have only 1 downhill, 3 super g's, 2 giant slaloms, 2 slaloms and 2 super combines left.
Here is my attempt to predict the rest of the season:
MEN:
overall:
Although Kristoffersen is only less than 100 points behind Hirscher I think he is the very obvious underdog. Thats mainly because the remaining races clearly favor Hirscher. The Austrian is probably in the better gs shape and he can make points in super-g's so he has 8 (or rather 7 because I doubt that he will go to Kvitfjell) races which favor him, while Kristofferson has only 2 slaloms left and is almost 100 points behind. Nevertheless Hirscher was pretty bad in Japan, and if he doesnt find his shape again and Kristoffersen skis on like he has done in the rest of the season this could become very close.
downhill:
This could be very interesting. With Fill, Jansrud, Theaux, Paris and Fayed there are probably 5 athletes who will compete for the win in this discipline. Fill has a good advantage of 69 points on Theaux and 73 on Jansrud but especially the Norwegian is usually very strong in Kvitfjell, and the slope in St.Moritz should be good for him too. Fill is still my favorite because of his advantage but I give Jansrud almost equal chances.
super-g:
This discipline is even more interesting, especially because the leader is still Svindal and his advantage of 120 points could be enough to win this competition without competing in the last 4 events. What makes this discipline even more interesting is the fact that more than 15 athletes are within 100 points to the currently 2nd Andrew Weibrecht. Another interesting factor in this discipline might be Marcel Hirscher. He is currently on 8th place and has only 46 points disadvantage to Weibrecht. Moreover the super g in hinterstoder fits him perfectly (to be honest, IMO he is the favorite there) and he usually also is very good in the last super g of the season and if he wins next weekend I can imagine that he will also go to Kvitjell. Nevertheless the favorite is in my opinion Svindal because making 110 points in 3 races isnt even that easy. Besides Svindal I also give Weibrecht and Kilde a good chance.
giant slalom:
Hirscher is obviously the big favorite with over 100 points advantage, but with 5 races to go this is actually still very open as well. Muffat jeandet, Faivre, Kristoffersen, Pinturault and Neureuther are all within 80 points so they all have a chance. I can't really say who of them has the biggest chance to beat Hirscher but its definitely possible that one of them does.
slalom:
Kristoffersen
LADIES:
overall:
Believe it or not but Gut is my favorite. I think the two super combines and the giant slaloms favor her and 2 of the 3 super g' are on slopes which should fit her too. Moreover there is only one downhill left, which is (as well as the third super-g) on a slope on which Gut is usually good too. I know that Vonn has a great shape but I have the feeling that she doesnt have the best nerves this year. I know she has been in this situation very often while its Gut's first chance to win the overall world cup, which might be an advantage for Vonn, but I have the feeling that the fact that she just isnt as dominant as she was before Garmisch might be a bad sign for her.
downhill:
Vonn
Super g:
Vonn has an advantage of about 60 points on Gut, everyone else is too far behind. This could be interesting because, as I wrote it above, the next two Super-g's should fit Gut better than Vonn. On the other hand Vonn still has a monster shape in which she actually is the favorite on every slope of the world, so it will be extremely difficult to beat the American.
giant slalom:
I honestly hope that Brem can win this because she just deserves to win this competition after being in the top ten of every single gs since about 2 years. (Moreover she is the only female Austrian hope to win a globe so ofc I root for her
). However IMO the favorite is Rebensburg, because her shape gets better and better and with less than 40 points of disadvantage and 2 races to go that means that if she wins both races Brem can do whatever she wants, but the giant slalom globe will go to Germany. Slalom:
Hansdotter is the big favorite with a 99 points advantage but if she skis out (which is always possible in a slalom) Zuzulova and Strachova are back in business. Moreover it could be crucial that the advantage is 99 points and not 101 because it means that that if Hansdotter gets 4th two times and Zuzulova wins both remaining slaloms she also wins the slalom globe by 1 point. Just to remind you, in 2014 Hirscher lost the giant slalom world cup to Ligety although he was 100 points in front, with only 2 races to go, so it isnt over yet.
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram