Andreas Kloden's Final Bid For Another Coveted Top 10 Tour Finish, 'Official' Thread

[Libertine Seguros]

Kloden totally has a chance to WIN!! Not just top 10.

If he was the team leader, he would kick ***.

Last year the whole team held him back. He has always been 2nd on the "team".

Give him freedom and he can do it.

Top 10 would be easy. Go for the win.

Klöden was designated leader at the 2008 Giro. He wasn't in form, and struggled. Leipheimer did too. When it came to the Vuelta, yes Contador was then the leader, but it was Leipheimer who was the 2nd in command.

While its entirely probable Kloden would have cracked regardless if Schleck & Co. attacked. The fact remains is that Contador attack put Kloden in trouble and dragged Schleck and Co. along for the ride.
The GC as it stood after stage 16:
General classification after stage 16
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 67:33:15
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:01:37
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:01:46
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:02:17
5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:26
6 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:02:51
7 Christophe Le Mevel (Fra) Française des Jeux 0:03:09
8 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:03:25

The GC as it stood after Contadors attack stage 17:
General classification after stage 17
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 72:27:09
2 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:26
3 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:03:25
4 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:03:55
5 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:04:44

The only effective change in the GC is Alberto Contador successfully put > 2:30 in his teammates. Barring bonuses (which FS gained) AS & FS are at the same time gaps.

Say what you will those are the facts Jack!

There were no bonuses, which is why Andy and Fränk are at the same time gaps. The whole purpose of the exercise was getting Wiggins out of the picture; he'd been allowed to stay in too long for comfort thanks to the Astana soft-pedalling and the lack of aggression/appalling route in the Pyrenees. All of a sudden he was within 2 minutes halfway through week 3 with a 40km ITT left to come and with nobody sure how well he would climb since he hadn't REALLY been tested in the race yet. Do you want to leave a TT threat like Wiggins that close? What if you crash, or have a mechanical, in the TT? Armstrong, like Nibali, stayed with Wiggins when the first accelerations started; Alberto, Klödi and the Schlecks went ahead. Wiggins was the threat to Armstrong at the time, until the Schlecks got far enough up the road; by which point he had (completely correctly) sat on Wiggins' wheel, and could put time into him. At that point it was the Schlecks riding together (once they got to the top of the Colombière, Contador took no turns) vs. Klöden vs. Armstrong vs. Nibali vs. Wiggins all riding solo. No wonder Klöden lost time - his descending isn't on a par with Nibali and Armstrong had been able to sit on someone's wheel all the way up the Romme.

I guess Klöden still might be capable of a top10 finish in the Tour. Of course, last year's Tour has not exactly been a display of power by him, but if Chris Horner was able to get a top10-placing last year, Klöden should be able to do the same this year. He still is the better ITT-rider and he is a smart and constant climber. If all goes well and he maybe gets in a breakaway on a medium-hard stage gaining 1 or 2 minutes on the favorites, he'll be able to finish on places 6-10. If not, he might not improve his position from the last Tour.

Maybe he should concentrate on winning a stage, though. He is/was a decent sprinter for a GC-guy and has been close to winning a stage serveral times. A GT stage-win would definately be a nice ornament for his career.

Klöden can still top 10, for sure. But anything more would be putting pressure on him that he doesn't need or want. He will definitely be a threat of a top 10 place, but a podium? Not happening for my money.

 

[patrick767]

There were no bonuses, which is why Andy and Fränk are at the same time gaps. The whole purpose of the exercise was getting Wiggins out of the picture; he'd been allowed to stay in too long for comfort thanks to the Astana soft-pedalling and the lack of aggression/appalling route in the Pyrenees. All of a sudden he was within 2 minutes halfway through week 3 with a 40km ITT left to come and with nobody sure how well he would climb since he hadn't REALLY been tested in the race yet. Do you want to leave a TT threat like Wiggins that close? What if you crash, or have a mechanical, in the TT? Armstrong, like Nibali, stayed with Wiggins when the first accelerations started; Alberto, Klödi and the Schlecks went ahead. Wiggins was the threat to Armstrong at the time, until the Schlecks got far enough up the road; by which point he had (completely correctly) sat on Wiggins' wheel, and could put time into him. At that point it was the Schlecks riding together (once they got to the top of the Colombière, Contador took no turns) vs. Klöden vs. Armstrong vs. Nibali vs. Wiggins all riding solo. No wonder Klöden lost time - his descending isn't on a par with Nibali and Armstrong had been able to sit on someone's wheel all the way up the Romme.

Makes sense to me. Plus I look at the race as a whole and have a very hard time criticizing the tactics of an Astana team that put their riders in first and third place overall in the TdF. No matter how good individual riders are, it takes a team effort and the results speak for themselves.

I wish Kloden luck this year. I think top ten is doable, but unfortunately I think he's also past his prime and top 5 is unlikely.

 

[Anonymous]

+

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[Hugh Januss]

Kloden totally has a chance to WIN!! Not just top 10.

If he was the team leader, he would kick ***.

Last year the whole team held him back. He has always been 2nd on the "team".

Give him freedom and he can do it.

Top 10 would be easy. Go for the win.

I don't believe Kloden equates being team leader with freedom as much as he equates it with pressure. He seems to always do his best rides when he is #2 on the team.

 

[Eric8-A]

He'll place higher than Wiggo

 

[xmoonx]

The whole purpose of the exercise was getting Wiggins out of the picture; he'd been allowed to stay in too long for comfort thanks to the Astana soft-pedalling and the lack of aggression/appalling route in the Pyrenees. All of a sudden he was within 2 minutes halfway through week 3 with a 40km ITT left to come and with nobody sure how well he would climb since he hadn't REALLY been tested in the race yet. Do you want to leave a TT threat like Wiggins that close?.

Agreed that Wiggo was a dark horse esp. w the 40k TT coming. Still i don't think going "mano a mano" with the Schlekettes ( a known entity ) was wise or a better option especially w Ventoux still to come. Frankly if you have the yellow and someone wants it they're going to have to come and get it (attack). The onus is on them, hence the term "defend the yellow".
Regardless watching the video the slightest Schleck attack ( a likely scenario) would have dropped Kloden, he was dead in the water. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i291M_Q8Mqc&feature=related

 

[gregrowlerson]

I am pretty happy with Klodi's finish to the recent stage race in Portugal (sorry, initially thought it was in Spain). 5th in the ITT and 5th overall is a very solid result. Also, 30 seconds behind over 17 kms is quite a lot, but Tony Martin is an excellent TT and also not a GC contender, at least for this year.

Good to see Andreas' team mate doing a good ride too. I feel that the TTT is critical at the TDF this year. It would be nice to see some teams get a minute on the Schlecks to make things a little more interesting.

The TTT may be so important to Kloden that we may be able to say after it whether his aim is a top 10, top 5 or dare I say it, a podium.

I find it strange when others say that Kloden does not feel comfortable as a team leader. Unless they are referring to smaller races (which over the years I haven't taken a lot of notice of) than the TDF. He has gotten to lead a team at the TDF just the ONE time; in 2006, and there was little time to mentally prepare for that challenge. He'd also had a limited preparation because he hurt his collarbone badly in March. Yet - after struggling a little in the Pyrenees - he rode really well in the Alps (even when he was having a bad day he still fought hard up the Ju-Plaix, admittedly with some great help from his team). The way that he rode up the Alp du'ez one could say that he appeared very comfortable in the pressure situation of leading a team and going for the yellow jersey. And then he backed it all up with an outstanding final ITT, smashing the rest of the GC riders and getting a spot on the podium. Then in '07 it could be argued that he got to be equal team leader with Vino, but unfortunately he crashed and hurt his tailbone. We'll never know if he could have won that Tour or not, but to be looking at a top 5 finish late in the race when he was team was kicked out was very impressive.

Then again, perhaps if Kloden really felt comfortable with leading a team then he could have gone to a smaller team on numerous occasions.

I do not necessarily think that Andreas should be given clear leadership this year though. It will depend a lot on form in June (though we can't just go off this, refer to Jani last year), and then with how the first week in France goes. Radioshack should go into the TDF with an open mind, and that as many as 4 guys could be their best GC rider. This will probably be narrowed down to 2 even before the high mountains, with stages 4 and 8 sure to sort a few of the riders out.

From what I have read about the '08 Giro, Kloden went in as one of the favourites (maybe even the favourite after is win in the Tour of Rommendie) and was well placed half way through after an excellent 3rd placing in the hilly 10th stage ITT (a Kloden specialty). Out of the GC contenders he was now only 2nd to team mate Contador. But then he got sick, lost a little time on stage 14, then blew up completely on the horrendous stage 15 and lost 5 minutes and his chances. He still rode until nearly the end of the three weeks in an effort to help Alberto win the race.

I am not sure what happened to Kloden in that years Vuelta when he just had very poor form and finished 20th.

Yes Klodi was dead in the water on that Queen stage in '09.

I am surprised at how much criticism that Tour route gets. For me, it was the lack of ITT kms (again!) that was more of a disappointment. There were plenty of mountains in that Tour (so okay, still not comparing with the Giro of course). The 'problem' was that one team was so strong in Astana, and that a lot of the race was spent with them already in control (so no great need to attack, especially as so many of their riders were well placed after the TTT) and the other teams were often too scared (or incapable) to attack. Granted, the Pyrenees were not too tough, but remember that the 2009 Tour route had the mighty Ventoux as an extra high mountains stage that year. Also, the climb to Arcallis was made boring by the strong head wind that hit the climbers. It was too hard and risky to attack from a long way out. You can see that even when Contador was dancing out ahead, he was not looking as great as usual. And Kloden spent a brief period of time on the front halfway up and then was the only GC guy to lose time (there was Contador, then the pack, then Kloden), emphasising how tough the wind was. I have read somewhere that Ullrich's time on this climb in '97 was about a few minutes faster than Contador's. It is/was a decent MTF, and with reasonable conditions there would have been a much better spectacle - like we saw up Verbier. The stage of the 2 "Bernies" was a decent layout, but there was too much of an interest in looking after team mates. From memory, Evans was the only GC guy that lost time that day. And then the Queen stage was a ripper with 5 major cols. And perhaps the racing up Venteoux would have been better if placed in the middle of the race, and we might not have had the Andy-Alberto surging, slowing down thing the whole way up.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Because you are such a big Klöden-fan, I send you this special "ö" from my German keyboard.

Handle it like a delicate plant.

 

[Nikoloz]

I want to see him in yellow for few days
and stage win too

)-:

 

[ansimi]

I want to see him in yellow for few days
and stage win too

)-:

Agreed. Either of those would be more interesting than a top ten finish.

 

[flicker]

Andreas Kloeden.The MIGHTY Mighty, Andreas!

 

[Boeing]

Kloden will ride for Horner, Levi or Brajkovic

 

[gregrowlerson]

I want to see him in yellow for few days
and stage win too

)-:

Any more discussion about Kloden spending time in yellow and Klodi Fanboy's keyboard will be in very grave danger.....

How about a future movie titled; "A Few Good Men And Their Magic Dope - The Story Of Andreas Kloden's Miraculous Victory In The 2011 Tour De France."

On a slightly more serious note, I don't think that Kloden will win a stage, because the only way for him to do so is to probably 'play the game' and lose 30 minutes in the Pyrenees, and then be allowed to get into breakaways which are even allowed to survive. Or if he was no threat to a top 10 finish then he could possibly win stage 17 if on a good day - because an attack on the final short climb might not be challenged by the big guns who would be waiting for stage 18. Then again, if Andreas "descends like a grandmother" again then he wouldn't win that either.

Last years stage to Mende was probably Klodi's last chance to get a deserving tour stage victory.

As for that yellow jersey - perhaps an excellent TTT from the Shack and then Kloden lets loose up Super-Besse with team Leopard confident enough to just let him go (and of course everyone else is just mesmerised by the pair of leopards and thus do nothing). A reverse of LA's no gifts policy!

And that could result in his stage win too.

 

[gregrowlerson]

This thread is about to become one of those so called Sticky ones.

My prediction (without any bias) for the 2011 TDF is as follows:

Stage 1: Vino explodes out of the pack to take the stage on the short uphill finish and with it the coveted yellow jersey.

Stage 2: Radioshack excel over the 23 km course, gaining valuable time on many of their GC rivals. Liquigas lose a minute. Leopard lose ninety seconds (will assume that they have crashes/punctures). And BMC? Safe to assume that the unlucky Cadel will lose time again. Let's say ninety seconds too. Rabbobank surprise by losing just under a minute.

Stage 3: Snooze.

Stage 4: Exciting finish on 2km steep climb. Vino again maybe (it's not a coincidence that I'm a fan)? Kloden makes claim to lead the Shack with strong showing in the top 5. Schlecks stay in the pack and are not concerned.

Stage 5-7: Snooze.

Stage 8: Klodi gets his first ever TDF stage win and throws on the yellow jersey. Attack on Super-Besse is not marked by the main contenders, though he is not allowed to gain too much time. Schlecks unperturbed about being 2 minutes behind.

Stage 9-11: Snooze.

Stage 12: Team Leopard explode the race up Luz-Ardiden; so much so that Andy is in yellow at the end of it. After initially helping to set it up, Frank is content to follow Basso's wheel, who loses over a minute to Andy. Evans stays with them too. Gesink tries an attack halfway up, gets away, but then cracks a little and finishers 20 seconds in arrears. Kloden rides steadily about another 40 seconds back.

Stage 13: Another Vino attack and victory?!

Stage 14: Leopard set a hard pace for this entire stage, hoping to have the Tour won even before we get to the Alps. With 12 kms to the top of Plait-de-Belle, Andy accelerates away as the others settle into their best possible tempo riding. He increases his lead to almost a minute before the pack start to match his pace. Suddenly with 7 kms remaining it appears that Andy is not on a great day, and fans count down to him being swallowed up by the group, which is down to 5-10 elites. Then comes the dramatic moment of this Tour (will rank alongside "The Look" and "Chaingate" for example). With 5 kms remaining Andy is caught, and he holds onto the bunch for no longer than half a km. Frank is riding comfortably, and now is the time where he could attack and cement a podium position (or perhaps even victory in Paris), but instead he looks back at his forlorn younger brother.....and love prevails!

He sits up and allows Andy to very slowly get onto his wheel. But the situation is hopeless. The pair are losing a minute per km (it is like Landis in '06). In the end, Frank goes it alone with 2 kms to go, but the damage has been done. He ends up losing only 90 seconds, but Andy loses 4:30. Up front it is Basso who looks the strongest, but instead of attacking the other riders he works with them, realising that now is the time to put as much time into Andy as possible. Kloden is on a good day and is able to stay with him and help too (though Basso does 70% of the work, no team mates with him, they've busted their guts for Nibali at The Giro). Evans cracks in the last few kms but only loses a minute. Gesink is strong, but does no work (thinking about his crack on stage 12) and eventually wins the stage in a three way sprint. But after all of that Kloden is back in yellow!

Stage 15-16: Snooze.

Stage 17: Dare I say it, but another attack from VINO!
Who has of course lost mountains of time on stages 12 and 14

Stage 18: Andy tries an attack, but Ivan is able to keep with him, only losing ground in the final km. Andreas loses only about a minute, but this hands the yellow jersey to Basso.

Stage 19: Shorter stage leads to some smaller time gaps to stage 18. Andy wins again (just beating Gesink; the Alp'duez suited the younger, more explosive climbers) and just fails to move into yellow. Further back, Evans doggedly hangs onto F. Schleck's wheel when he attacks 3 kms from the summit and the two gain valuable time on Basso and Kloden who are struggling a little.

Stage 20: Going into the TT it is Basso (approximately) 20 seconds ahead of Andy, 30 seconds to Frank, 45 seconds to Kloden, and 55 seconds to Evans (who is the forgotten man; not mentioned at all in the lead up). But quickly it becomes clear that Cadel is the man with the strong TT legs. Incredibly by only halfway he has made up the time on everyone (if the Schlecks have punctures suspect ACF and myself for causing them), and only Kloden is a threat, now 5 seconds down. But Evans keeps increasing his advantage. But this is Cadel we're talking about. So in the last 10 kms something happens. Puncture, crash, his arm falls off, whatever. Something happens. And Klodi wins The Tour!

1. Kloden
2. Evans
3. Basso
4. A. Schleck
5. Gesink (puts in a stunning TT )

You heard it hear first.

Oh yeah. Stage 21: Snooze.

 

[Havetts]

Wow.. Did you just make all that up ? Would be a fun scenario, just cause Andy loses the tour...

But honestly this year I think top 10 is the best Klöden will do, seeing he lost alot of time the first stage in the alps this year too.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Wow.. Did you just make all that up ? Would be a fun scenario, just cause Andy loses the tour...

But honestly this year I think top 10 is the best Klöden will do, seeing he lost alot of time the first stage in the alps this year too.

It was a piece of cake making all of that up.

On a slightly more realistic note, I think that the best that Andreas can dream of is a 3rd place finish behind A. Schleck and Basso, whom I can't see him matching in the mountains. And to take 3rd would require a lot of luck, but if Kloden is closer to 2009 form than 2010 then he may be able to compete with the likes of S. Sanchez and Gesink on some of the climbs, and Evans is always prone to having a bad day and/or some bad luck. Or perhaps Kloden can be about the 6th best climber in the field, but limit his losses well, and have good results in the TTT and ITT. As for F. Schleck I think that he may be the 3rd best climber in the race, but domestique duties may limit his potential to finish on the podium in Paris.

Of course 3rd is still dreaming (he may not even finish 3rd on his team!), but top 5 is very realistic for Kloden IF he has a good first week.

But at his advanced age, top 20 might be a good result.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Maybe a podium spot in Paris is still possible. Terrific stage win on the 'Queen' stage in Paris-Nice. Great stuff Klodi!!!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I've gone on record before saying Cadel is my sentimental fav at the Tour ftw or podium, but I had never thought about Klodi. If I had to pick a second sentimental fav for a top 10 or maybe podium, Klodi is one.

 

[quarterpounder]

Andreas Klöden is back!

I was surprised to read that Andreas Klöden won that stage in Paris-Nice yesterday, I thought he was still lost somewhere on the Col de la Colombière, but I guess not. What will this surprise comeback mean for the tour? Will he be able to challence team schlux this summer?

 

[McClimber]

Kloden

I had made a prediction in another thread that Kloden still has big wins in him.

Yep, on the road to a good season. I think he is going big. Will he have the power and the confidence along with some team support for TdF? He has had some good tours in the past.

 

[El Pistolero]

Will get destroyed in the Tour.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I am happy with Kloden's 4th place result in the ITT. Still 2nd overall and should finish on the podium in Nice. The last stage could be interesting. I'd like to see Radioshack put men on the front on the 2nd last climb and ride hard from there, and try to crack Martin. He is a handy climber at times Martin, so maybe he can be a serious GC threat in the future in GT's, especially if they actually bother to put at least 80 kms of ITT in one of them.

Andreas seems to have good legs at this stage of the season. This latest result shows that he can still TT, and this may still be important come the end of the TDF in the 41 km test against the clock. Frank Schleck showed that he still isn't much good in this discipline, and he is likely to be one of Kloden's main opponents for a top 5 TDF finish.

With Jani and Levi doing okay too, perhaps the Shack will be stronger at the TDF than first thought? Hoping for a big result from them in the TTT - noticed that Team Leopard didn't have a great result in Italy, even with Cancerella riding hard.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I thought he was still lost somewhere on the Col de la Colombière

Good quote!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Will get destroyed in the Tour.

Maybe if he learns / decides to pick up a little of that Vino MoJo he'll be able to do something special.

 

[usedtobefast]

he is a good rider. i hope he does well this season. he didn't raise his arms when
he hit the line either. he was A:too tired B: too cool. a very gritty sprint.imo.