Armstrong Vs Contador

[Inner Peace]

I don't think Andy Schleck is that kind of a threat for Contador, because at his best he can only compete with Contador in the mountains, but even there he loses time. And in the TT he will lose probably several minutes. The only way Schleck (both of them) can win is when AC had bad luck or when he is sick. The biggest threat for AC to me is Denis Menchov, a Menchov in topform can possibly rival AC in the mountains, and can compete with him in the time trails.

I tend to agree with this kind of argument. One I also have portrayed here in the forum a while back (can't remember the thread tho). I think contador's key rivals will actually be the guys that can (and have) beat him in a time trial. The only way these guys win is by hanging with contador in the mountains for as long as possible, then try (like really try) to out TT him.

For me, that means guys like Evans, Menchov and I dare say Leipheimer (but he looks way out of touch) or Kloden. If Armstrong manages to TT like in his 7year reign, then he is in with a shot, but that is a HUGE "if". At the moment, I agree that Armstrong is not a top 5 contender, but the less he performs, it actually makes him less predictable.

All that said, I think schleck will push the 'time triallists' too far in the mountains such that he can still lose minutes in the 50km TT and secure second. Frank maybe fifth. Andy Schleck likely gets second in this tour behind contador, but there is no way whatsoever he wins.

Contador can be described as the Lance 1999 armstrong was. "If you win the time trials, and you win the mountains, there isn't much more to do than to win the Tour de France" - a slightly paraphrased infamous commentator's quote.

I voted Evans in the poll

 

[Big GMaC]

Turns out it wasn't pollen after all. AC came down with a case of the slows...

http://velocitynation.com/content/toto/2010/toto-turns-176

Chubby with a brown braclet? CycleNews Forum influence?

 

[Ferminal]

"Vino soften field like goat dumplings"

More Vino in toto please!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

How come Lance Armstrong and even Andreas Klöden is in this poll and not Gesink. I refuse to vote

 

[afpm90]

Do you have an example of a 24 year old rider who had his career damaged in that way? And would you feel the same way if he was the ninth rider on Vacansoleil at the Vuelta a Espana? Surely in three months a genius like Bruyneel, with help from some very veteran riders, could get him to the point where he'd be safe in the peloton?

I'm disputing your claim that Machado should ride the Tour as a leader. I think that is damaging to a rider who is in his first year as a Pro-Tour rider. Too much responsability. He may do the Tour, but without thinking in the CG. Just riding for learning.

I get the feeling that you think I'm a supporter of Bruyneel. Well, I'm not.

 

[theswordsman]

I'm disputing your claim that Machado should ride the Tour as a leader. I think that is damaging to a rider who is in his first year as a Pro-Tour rider. Too much responsability. He may do the Tour, but without thinking in the CG. Just riding for learning.

I get the feeling that you think I'm a supporter of Bruyneel. Well, I'm not.

I never suggested he should be a leader, and that wasn't the conversation.
I wouldn't suggest him as a leader for Pais Vasco, much less the Tour de France. And with Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden, and possibly Popovych as protected riders, that would be silly. But if Radio Shack plans to be a going concern after this year, they should give their young riders important racing experience. I'd include Jani Brajkovic in that. That's part of the reason why blowing off the Giro is such a poor idea. Do you have a name of a rider who rode his first Tour as a 24 year old neo pro and had his career damaged because of it?

 

[theswordsman]

Why is Bruyneel called a genius? especially with young talents, look at popovych and brajkovic, what is become of them? They were said to be future tour winners, but they are way off that path now. Okay, contador won at young age, but was that Bruyneels work? I don;t think so

You're the preacher, I'm the choir Sorry, in real life I now look at Bruyneel the way I do something I have to scrape off the bottom of my shoe. But after lots of interaction (admittedly from both sides of the fence on my part), when I see someone who appears to repeat the Radio Shack party line, I try to speak that language. It helps focus the discussion on the topic at hand. The conversation started with me disagreeing with Bruyneel and Radio Shack's assertion that TM shouldn't ride the Tour de France.

When I was at college (the first time), I had a really good Logic (the course was actually called Critical Thinking) professor. We spent a lot of time on syllogisms, fallacies of argument, and stuff like that. I just accepted the premise about Bruyneel as a way to focus on Machado. Cheers

 

[flicker]

How come Lance Armstrong and even Andreas Klöden is in this poll and not Gesink. I refuse to vote

As much as I like Gesink he hasn't the maturity to challange Alberto in the big one.

 

[Bag_O_Wallet]

I voted Menchov. From the list, I think he's the most complete. He can climb, time trial, and win GT's. That said, I couldn't tell you if or which Menchov will show up. I'd imagine he'll target something he has a better shot at winning.

 

[afpm90]

I never suggested he should be a leader, and that wasn't the conversation.
I wouldn't suggest him as a leader for Pais Vasco, much less the Tour de France. And with Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden, and possibly Popovych as protected riders, that would be silly. But if Radio Shack plans to be a going concern after this year, they should give their young riders important racing experience. I'd include Jani Brajkovic in that. That's part of the reason why blowing off the Giro is such a poor idea. Do you have a name of a rider who rode his first Tour as a 24 year old neo pro and had his career damaged because of it?

Well, from the first comment you made I understood that you think that Tiago Machado should be one of the leaders at the Tour. My bad. But I don't have a problem if he rides the Tour without responsibilities. Just riding to learn what it feels like to ride at that level. And I agree with you about Brajkovic. He's very good and it's about time he has a chance of riding with the "big guys".

 

[*G*K*S*]

I certainly wouldn't discount LA however. He by no means can win the tour on talent alone at his age(or any race pro tour race for that matter), but dude brings alot of financial support and politics to the table, which can be quite advantageous at Le Tour. There's a few guys that will be on the shack's tour team that LA should be riding for, not the other way around, but that won't happen......

But....but... didn't he ride for a stronger team mate at last year's Tour?

 

[Michielveedeebee]

But....but... didn't he ride for a stronger team mate at last year's Tour?

He most definitly did not!