Armstrong Vs Contador

[Michielveedeebee]

I really wonder why everybody is talking about rivalry between armstrong and contador...
armstrong isn't as strong as the likes of Andy Shleck, Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Denis Mensjov or Carlos Sastre...
I mean, he achieved really great things in the past but his time is over, he's just not that strong anymore. Rivalry between Shleck and Contador is way bigger and the gap between them is smaller than the gap between Armstrong and Contador...

 

[kurtinsc]

I really wonder why everybody is talking about rivalry between armstrong and contador...
armstrong isn't as strong as the likes of Andy Shleck, Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Denis Mensjov or Carlos Sastre...
I mean, he achieved really great things in the past but his time is over, he's just not that strong anymore. Rivalry between Shleck and Contador is way bigger and the gap between them is smaller than the gap between Armstrong and Contador...

Yep.

I think Andy vs AC is the race for who will win the tour. If Lance can get back to where he was form wise at the Tour last year, he can compete for 3rd... but only if he specifically races for 3rd. If he tries to win, he'll place lower.

 

[IntheMidwest]

I really wonder why everybody is talking about rivalry between armstrong and contador...
armstrong isn't as strong as the likes of Andy Shleck, Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Denis Mensjov or Carlos Sastre...
I mean, he achieved really great things in the past but his time is over, he's just not that strong anymore. Rivalry between Shleck and Contador is way bigger and the gap between them is smaller than the gap between Armstrong and Contador...

Draws peoples' attention to the TdF and whatever race he enters this year, that's all.

 

[Publicus]

Armstrong's not even a top 5 rival at the moment. He lost almost 4 minutes in two stages, one of which AC shut it down 3KM out because of allergies.

 

[maikel]

I don't think Andy Schleck is that kind of a threat for Contador, because at his best he can only compete with Contador in the mountains, but even there he loses time. And in the TT he will lose probably several minutes. The only way Schleck (both of them) can win is when AC had bad luck or when he is sick. The biggest threat for AC to me is Denis Menchov, a Menchov in topform can possibly rival AC in the mountains, and can compete with him in the time trails.

Edit: and I think Menchov has a stronger team than both schleck and contador. He has guys like Gesink, Garate and ten Dam to help him in the mountains, especially Gesink who can pose a rival for the podium of his own

And Armstrong is way over his best, and he needs his best to compete with AC

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Draws peoples' attention to the TdF and whatever race he enters this year, that's all.

just what i thought

 

[hawkeye87]

I would say Cadel would be a rival if not for him concentrating on the Giro.

Despite the fact that I believe doping still exists, it does not appear to be as prevelent as the Pantani era or even Basso's potential he showed to be competitive in both.

If you concentrate on the Giro and podium, you can forget the TDF in July.

 

[BikeCentric]

I voted for Andy but the problem is that Andy cannot TT so I just don't see much of a rivalry there.

Therefore I almost picked Evans as it's quite possible that Evans could get up there for place #2 on Tour GC; I just don't see Evans ever climbing well enough to beat AC.

Really I think any chance of a real rival for AC is going to come from some young up-and-comer as AC gets older, we'll find out if Nibali and/or Kreuziger are the real deal this July and if not one of them them probably some other young pup that is just turning pro now perhaps.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I voted for Andy but the problem is that Andy cannot TT so I just don't see much of a rivalry there.

Therefore I almost picked Evans as it's quite possible that Evans could get up there for place #2 on Tour GC; I just don't see Evans ever climbing well enough to beat AC.

Really I think any chance of a real rival for AC is going to come from some young up-and-comer as AC gets older, we'll find out if Nibali and/or Kreuziger are the real deal this July and if not one of them them probably some other young pup that is just turning pro now perhaps.

When Contador was Andy's age he couldn't TT neither. He realised he should be working at it. Andy's working real hard on his TT skills with help of Cancellara, he should've improved big time. That's what they said they would do after last years TdF

 

[MacRoadie]

I, too, voted for Cadel.

Obviously, if you are looking at race-specific, one-on-one matchups, then A. Schleck is probably the main contender for the Tour.

If, however, you put the two riders side-by-side at the beginning of the year, and give them both the exact same racing schedule spanning all types of racing (classics, 3 or 4 day stage races, GT's), then I think Cadel would give Contador the best run for his money.

 

[kurtinsc]

Armstrong's not even a top 5 rival at the moment. He lost almost 4 minutes in two stages, one of which AC shut it down 3KM out because of allergies.

True... but Lance at P-N in 2005 was at the tail end after the prologue, and dropped out halfway through.

Then he (somehow) managed to get fit and in shape and win the Tour in July.


I don't think he can win... but IF he can do the same "sudden fitness" this year that he did in 2005, I don't see any reason why he can't compete for 3rd. He may not get it... but he can be in the mix... but ONLY if he shoots for 3rd and lets AC and AS go on the climbs. If he tries to go with them or pull them back (like on Verbier last year), he'll bonk and finish behind a lot of people. If he doesn't and lets others try to chase, then pulls away from them late (like on Grand Bornand with Wiggins last year), he can make up time and get a podium spot.

I'm not sure how to view Menchov. He looked great in the Giro, but had nothing in the Tour (this after many years of doing better in his second GT appearance of the year). I honestly don't know how to compare his climbing at the Giro with what people did at the Tour. I've never really seen him be capable of climbing with a Contador like climber over 3 weeks... I tend to put him in that second tier just behind Contador and Schleck when it comes to the mountains.

 

[IntheMidwest]

just what i thought

I certainly wouldn't discount LA however. He by no means can win the tour on talent alone at his age(or any race pro tour race for that matter), but dude brings alot of financial support and politics to the table, which can be quite advantageous at Le Tour. There's a few guys that will be on the shack's tour team that LA should be riding for, not the other way around, but that won't happen......

 

[maikel]

I voted for Andy but the problem is that Andy cannot TT so I just don't see much of a rivalry there.

Therefore I almost picked Evans as it's quite possible that Evans could get up there for place #2 on Tour GC; I just don't see Evans ever climbing well enough to beat AC.

Really I think any chance of a real rival for AC is going to come from some young up-and-comer as AC gets older, we'll find out if Nibali and/or Kreuziger are the real deal this July and if not one of them them probably some other young pup that is just turning pro now perhaps.

Kreuziger is not good enough in the mountains and Nibali is good, but never a tour winner I think. Gesink has the best chance of the younger GC riders at the moment I think, easily the best climber of the lot (that means with AC)

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I voted for Andy but the problem is that Andy cannot TT so I just don't see much of a rivalry there.

Therefore I almost picked Evans as it's quite possible that Evans could get up there for place #2 on Tour GC; I just don't see Evans ever climbing well enough to beat AC.

Really I think any chance of a real rival for AC is going to come from some young up-and-comer as AC gets older, we'll find out if Nibali and/or Kreuziger are the real deal this July and if not one of them them probably some other young pup that is just turning pro now perhaps.

Exactly, with the lack off TT kms this Tour is more suited to Andy, but I think he will still lose significant time on the ITT. If he improves his TT, he'll be the guy, but right now he's not a true rival. Nibali and Kreuzinger, on the other hand, I can't wait to see this year. Liquigas has a stacked team.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I certainly wouldn't discount LA however. He by no means can win the tour on talent alone at his age(or any race pro tour race for that matter), but dude brings alot of financial support and politics to the table, which can be quite advantageous at Le Tour. There's a few guys that will be on the shack's tour team that LA should be riding for, not the other way around, but that won't happen......

yeah I know, it's a shame...
Leipheimer or Klöden are definitely better than him on GC but he'd never ride for them.
But his comeback is really great for cycling worldwide, he attracts so much attention to races that are otherwise neglected by people interested in cycling.
sorry for the poor spelling but I'm belgian talking english is easier than writing

 

[maikel]

I certainly wouldn't discount LA however. He by no means can win the tour on talent alone at his age(or any race pro tour race for that matter), but dude brings alot of financial support and politics to the table, which can be quite advantageous at Le Tour. There's a few guys that will be on the shack's tour team that LA should be riding for, not the other way around, but that won't happen......

Not a chance, he has never been the most talented rider, ofcourse he is very talented. But back in his days Ullrich had lots more talent, but not the morar power lance still has.

Contador has much more talent than Lance

 

[kurtinsc]

When Contador was Andy's age he couldn't TT neither. He realised he should be working at it. Andy's working real hard on his TT skills with help of Cancellara, he should've improved big time. That's what they said they would do after last years TdF

Not quite accurate.

When Contador was Andy's age, he had already won several time trials.

In 2003, his first win at a noteable race was a 19km ITT in the Tour of Pologne. In 2005 hw won a 10km ITT in Pais Vasco, in 2007 he was 2nd in a 14km Pais Vasco ITT, 5th in a 55km TDF ITT and 7th in a 54km TDF ITT.

Contador's time trial has improved... but he was starting from a base that was ahead of where Schleck is now. Way ahead.

 

[IntheMidwest]

True... but Lance at P-N in 2005 was at the tail end after the prologue, and dropped out halfway through.

Then he (somehow) managed to get fit and in shape and win the Tour in July.


I don't think he can win... but IF he can do the same "sudden fitness" this year that he did in 2005, I don't see any reason why he can't compete for 3rd. He may not get it... but he can be in the mix... but ONLY if he shoots for 3rd and lets AC and AS go on the climbs. If he tries to go with them or pull them back (like on Verbier last year), he'll bonk and finish behind a lot of people. If he doesn't and lets others try to chase, then pulls away from them late (like on Grand Bornand with Wiggins last year), he can make up time and get a podium spot.

I'm not sure how to view Menchov. He looked great in the Giro, but had nothing in the Tour (this after many years of doing better in his second GT appearance of the year). I honestly don't know how to compare his climbing at the Giro with what people did at the Tour. I've never really seen him be capable of climbing with a Contador like climber over 3 weeks... I tend to put him in that second tier just behind Contador and Schleck when it comes to the mountains.

Great points here. I honestly think it's too early to tell. Contador, everyone knows is incredibly strong, but his team has me wondering at this point - compared to his rivals teams. Speaking of teams, Cadel may have a tough time with BMC as well. I think the Shack will have a solid team as will Saxo and Rabo. I like Liquigas as well. No TTT this year either.....

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Not quite accurate.

When Contador was Andy's age, he had already won several time trials.

In 2003, his first win at a noteable race was a 19km ITT in the Tour of Pologne. In 2005 hw won a 10km ITT in Pais Vasco, in 2007 he was 2nd in a 14km Pais Vasco ITT, 5th in a 55km TDF ITT and 7th in a 54km TDF ITT.

Contador's time trial has improved... but he was starting from a base that was ahead of where Schleck is now. Way ahead.

sorry didn't know wasn't really following cycling yet then..

 

[kurtinsc]

Great points here. I honestly think it's too early to tell. Contador, everyone knows is incredibly strong, but his team has me wondering at this point - compared to his rivals teams. Speaking of teams, Cadel may have a tough time with BMC as well. I think the Shack will have a solid team as will Saxo and Rabo. I like Liquigas as well. No TTT this year either.....

I don't think Cadel's team will be any more of a hindrance then it was at Silence/Predictor-Lotto... so I don't think that hurts him much.

I think Cadel will be hindered because he'll be going for the Giro... I see his Tour (if BMC gets an invite) a lot like Menchov's last year.

 

[isayic]

When Contador was Andy's age he couldn't TT neither. He realised he should be working at it. Andy's working real hard on his TT skills with help of Cancellara, he should've improved big time. That's what they said they would do after last years TdF

Contador could TT when he was Andy's age.
His first win as a pro was a time trial. (he was about 20)
He also was Spanish TT Champion under 23.
He has improved his skills and could beat Cancellara in the Tour 2009.

But I think to do good TTs is a question of talent too.

 

[Publicus]

True... but Lance at P-N in 2005 was at the tail end after the prologue, and dropped out halfway through.

Then he (somehow) managed to get fit and in shape and win the Tour in July.


I don't think he can win... but IF he can do the same "sudden fitness" this year that he did in 2005, I don't see any reason why he can't compete for 3rd. He may not get it... but he can be in the mix... but ONLY if he shoots for 3rd and lets AC and AS go on the climbs. If he tries to go with them or pull them back (like on Verbier last year), he'll bonk and finish behind a lot of people. If he doesn't and lets others try to chase, then pulls away from them late (like on Grand Bornand with Wiggins last year), he can make up time and get a podium spot.

I'm not sure how to view Menchov. He looked great in the Giro, but had nothing in the Tour (this after many years of doing better in his second GT appearance of the year). I honestly don't know how to compare his climbing at the Giro with what people did at the Tour. I've never really seen him be capable of climbing with a Contador like climber over 3 weeks... I tend to put him in that second tier just behind Contador and Schleck when it comes to the mountains.

We've had this conversation/discussion a couple of times. I think the difference between this year and last year will be that he will have to race, at all times. He had the luxury of not going deep on stages 16 and 17, and 20, because AC was the focus of everyone's attention (MJ). This is predicated on Armstrong's repeated assertion that he's going for the win, not merely to place. Andy and the other pure climbers are going to have to try and steal as much time as possible in advance of the long TT--they cannot waste any opportunities, which frankly, IMO, is going to be Lance's undoing.

As for the magical leap in form, I think the bio-passport is going to make that harder to do in 2010 than it was in 2005. More to the point, whatever kick he had in the mountains in 2005 has long since left his legs. He may be able to ride a high tempo, but he hasn't shown an ability to handle multiple accelerations in the high mountains and I don't see anywhere on his schedule where he will get that practice between now and July.

 

[IntheMidwest]

I don't think Cadel's team will be any more of a hindrance then it was at Silence/Predictor-Lotto... so I don't think that hurts him much.

I think Cadel will be hindered because he'll be going for the Giro... I see his Tour (if BMC gets an invite) a lot like Menchov's last year.

Agree about Lotto. I'd love to BMC at the Giro and the Tour!

 

[Nicoper]

Menchov definitely. If you count out LA (he wont be here for long, only because of that) he is second best active Grand Tour rider.

Don't forget that he was fifth when he rode Giro in 2008 as a preparation for Tour. His only flaw is something I call Menchov factor. He tends to have stupid falls and to miss peleton splits. If his attack in that mountain stage in TdF 08 did not end up with him falling who know what would have happened.
And also, last year he fought like a madman to follow DiLuca in the mountains, he fought off dozens of attacks in the mountains. Now just imagine how much more effort does it take to compete against doped rider. Piepoli described the difference after he was caught, find that article on the web and you will see.That probably destroyed his TdF last year.

 

[IntheMidwest]

Menchov definitely. If you count out LA (he wont be here for long, only because of that) he is second best active Grand Tour rider.

Don't forget that he was fifth when he rode Giro in 2008 as a preparation for Tour. His only flaw is something I call Menchov factor. He tends to have stupid falls and to miss peleton splits. If his attack in that mountain stage in TdF 08 did not end up with him falling who know what would have happened.
And also, last year he fought like a madman to follow DiLuca in the mountains, he fought off dozens of attacks in the mountains. Now just imagine how much more effort does it take to compete against doped rider. Piepoli described the difference after he was caught, find that article on the web and you will see.That probably destroyed his TdF last year.

There's really only one way to do that mate!

(but let's try to keep this thread out of the clinic for as long as possible. - This is a start to a good thread!)