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Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 11: Évaux-les-Bains > Le Lioran, 211km

Credit to @Devil's Elbow for this stage write up
https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/tour-de-france-2024-stage-by-stage-analysis.39775/post-3032425
For the first time in over a week, real climbs. This is potentially one of the best stages of this Tour, so buckle up.

The route
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A sizeable transfer south has taken the peloton out of the plains and into the hills, for a start in Évaux-les-Bains. The town owes its existence to its thermal baths, already in use in Roman times but abandoned when the western half of the empire collapsed. A village, based around a monastery (later replaced by the present collegiate church) survived , and eventually, in the 17th century, the spa was restored. The current developments mostly date back to the 19th century, when the construction of a now-defunct railway led to a peak in the spa’s popularity. It has not hosted the Tour before.

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The stage is rolling to hilly for its first three quarters. The first point of interest is the intermediate sprint in Bourg-Lastic.

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Shortly after, there are two KOMs at Côte de Mouilloux and Côte de Larodde. I don’t have profiles for either, so with little to talk about away from cycling we’re skipping ahead to the finale. This starts with the Col de Néronne.

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At the summit, we join the route of the 2016 stage into Le Lioran. The next 11.4k are the final 11.4k of the profile below. Puy Mary/Pas de Peyrol may be overcategorised, but it’s still the steepest, highest and most famous pass of the Cantal massif, and can do real damage off the back of the hard side of Néronne as seen in the 2020 MTF here.

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After the first proper descent since the one down the Galibier, it’s time for the third and final of the steeper climbs, Col du Perthus.

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The ensuing descent is short, but narrow and fairly technical. Once we’re off it, it’s onto the main road for a while, and now the gradients are far lower. Just before the summit, it’s away from the main road and up to Col de Font de Cère.

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The final descent is very narrow, but also very short. The final 800 metres, on the main road once more, are uphill at a consistent 6.5%.

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Le Lioran is one of the largest ski resorts in the Massif Central and the only one in the Massif du Cantal, the largest (though long-extinct) stratovolcano in Europe. It is the wettest place in France (weather stations on mountains aside). This will be its third finish in the Tour, after 1975 (Michel Pollentier, ahead of Eddy Merckx two stages before he was famously brought to his knees on the way to Pra-Loup) and 2016 (Greg Van Avermaet).

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What to expect?

I know the slightly easier version of the same finale didn’t do much for GC in 2016, but given that almost every mountain stage wasn’t raced properly that year and given how well this stage suits both Pogacar and Evenepoel, there is a very good chance of things being different this time round. Major GC action or not, the break will have high hopes here too
 
I hope Pogacar puts down the hammer cause he knows he needs to use his good legs (and him being better than Jonas possibly) asap before Jonas gets better. And the fact that we literally got 1 GC days in 10 days.

But I fear just a breakaway win and not really a fight between favorites till the weekend.
My thoughts as well. I am somewhat optimistic for GC aggression - I think Evenepoel is also ready to rumble and he likewise needs to try to do some damage tomorrow as it suits him better than the high mountains will.
 
We'll definitely see Pogacar test his rivals on one of those steep climbs tomorrow.

The man has such an impulsive attacking instinct that he won't just let the stage pass without having a go. There is a better launch pad for attacking on this stage than the Galibier stage.

However, the stage will inevitably be won by a breakaway. History has shown that almost every difficult stage in the Massif Central ends with a breakaway winner. Just check out results from places like Mende, Saint-Flour, Puy de Dome....... they always are won by a breakaway.
 
He's been sat at the back all race looking disinterested, 15 minutes down, so if he can be arsed to move himself into a proper position this from the break;

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I think the stage is a bit too long for UAE to both control and win the stage but Pogacar will attack on Puy Mary. Visma should look to get Van Aert or Benoot in the break, Vingegaard will need someone for the descents otherwise he could lose a lot if Pogacar gets a bit of distance at the top and from far out.
 
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I think there are 3 potential outcomes; either Pogi will win solo by over a minute, Pogi and Evenepoel will take over a minute out of the field or a break wins and the GC all finish on the same time. Pogi will attack on the harder climbs and if he gaps Vingegaard then he will take a chunk of time as he's already shown he can descend better this year and he will be stronger on the less steep climbs. If he doesn't, the interest from GC group will fizzle out and nothing much will happen from then on
 
They will probably not do it but I don't think it's a bad idea for OAE to destroy the peloton on Nerrone, try to isolate Vingegaard with Yates early on Puy Mary and send Ajuso/Almeida to attack before the top.
It is the kind of tactics you resort to if you don’t have the strongest guy in the race, so I don’t think it’s very likely either; but would be oh so great to behold.