Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 11: Évaux-les-Bains > Le Lioran, 211km

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Last 45 km are quite interesting with a few climbs. They are not long but steep and punchy. Up and down, up and down. Is it the day when we will finally see the dream duo ride by yellow + white? This may be the last chance for such an action in this Tour. Vingo normally is almost impossible to drop by a non-Pogacar guy but who knows what kind of race situation can occur? For example if Remco tries then Vingo can let him go initially (like yesterday on one climb). Then if Pog attacks and bridges to Remco leaving Vingo just a few seconds behind it's suddenly 2 vs 1 (in a varying terrain). Impossible? Absolutely not. Maybe it takes two Merckx-es to break the unbreakable.
 
Given that Ajuso/Almeida are 4th- 7th in the race you may as well use them as weapons. And I don't think MTF's are better suited for that tactic.
That would be an ideal scenario if z Pogacar was in 2nd or 3rd, and wanted to force the yellow jersey team to chase them down. But with Pog in yellow (I think) there will be less incentive for other teams to chase. They might shrug their shoulders and decide “you want Almeida in yellow instead of Poggio, fine go right ahead.”
 
That would be an ideal scenario if z Pogacar was in 2nd or 3rd, and wanted to force the yellow jersey team to chase them down. But with Pog in yellow (I think) there will be less incentive for other teams to chase. They might shrug their shoulders and decide “you want Almeida in yellow instead of Poggio, fine go right ahead.”
But they run the risk of being Kuss’d if Almeida or Ayuso get to big of a lead. Then the others have to deal with Pogacar chilling on their wheel when he’s already ahead of them.
 
The more I think about it the more I feel like Pogacar should nuke Puy Mary. I don't think anyone will be close enough to help Vingegaard chase him down (especially with the descent right afterwards) so Pogi can essentially turn this into a TT where he can gain a large amount of time. It's probably the (medium) mountain stage suiting Pogacar the best and he has to be afraid of Vingegaard riding himself into top shape so he needs to gain time as soon as he can.
 
i would like to see pog wheel suck jonas on the next few stages that look enticing, to turn things around. he has a 1.15 lead after all. currently, pog is playing right into visma ideas....i do believe pog is stronger/lighter and more of a force this year, but he is human...and i think he likes to dominate. just to let remko or anyone gain anything against him, even for tactics, he wont allow it due to pride. i think this is his potential downfall...but if he is as strong as i think he is ( the last 2 yrs losses motivated him with his training this year) he will win...the day that wva or jorgensen comes to the front early to make things hard, is the day pog needs to think about tactics. wva is sandbagging...he or forgensen (who closed a gap down twice on stage 9) will be in the front on one of the next stages...visma tactic is to make an entire stage very hard...to launch jonas...its clear to see when they do it. so i hope that uae will see it and not allow pog to do all of his attacks.
i think pog needs to wheel suck jonas, and completely reverse the current tactics. remko...lol...not a factor...in mountains...use him as the joker that he is if it makes sense...but try to avoid all of the attacks that are covered by jonas/team...it wastes energy as shown 2022/2023. other riders are expecting that. i would like to see pog sit on jonas wheel...as leader of tour, and use his team to cancel all attacks of the wannabes. does pog want to lose by animating race, or win by being smart and a bit boring?
 
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It's like the ballsy and the leggy one made it perfectly clear, on what they are in for. The intelligent one, his team, likely still vigilant and on damage control. Rogla, who knows. From his perspective it would be ideal if breakaway makes it and he doesn't bleed any time, likely the story of the whole week two. Lets try to make it happen and go from there. Unless i guess any of the trio has a bad day, then try to move up in GC, but not at expense of reducing the chances for overall.
 
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The more I think about it the more I feel like Pogacar should nuke Puy Mary. I don't think anyone will be close enough to help Vingegaard chase him down (especially with the descent right afterwards) so Pogi can essentially turn this into a TT where he can gain a large amount of time. It's probably the (medium) mountain stage suiting Pogacar the best and he has to be afraid of Vingegaard riding himself into top shape so he needs to gain time as soon as he can.
I agree it seems like a good stage for Pogacar to launch an attack—
 

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