Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 11: Évaux-les-Bains > Le Lioran, 211km

[rghysens]

Not the optimal stage to get inte break for Yates, first 100k quite flat, and on more flatter terrain Jumbo has some power.

Maybe Jumbo will let van Aert try to go in the break, a van Aert in good shape could force UAE doms to work hard close him down.

Yeah, but Van Aert isn´t in good shape (not really good, at least). And what if they just let him ride?

 

[CyclistAbi]

So a few things to watch for, will Remco lure Pogi into cooperation, trying to form an alliance in between aggressors against defenders, would such lure only trigger Jonas more. On how to lure UAE climbing section into maxing out. To put Yates, Almeida and Ayuso in the breakaway, that likely being the only option, for something like this to happen. So basically the answer being, you can't. Rogla. We'll see.

 

[Rackham]

If Vingegaard is at his normal level, no one is dropping him here. In fact the opposite could happen.

I'm curious to see how Visma race this one because the popular belief that long cols at altitude are where Vingegaard is superior doesn't exactly match the reality of the past couple of seasons. He was very strong in Itzulia 2023 & he demolished everyone on Marie Blanque last year.

Everyone on social media seems to be talking about this terrain being 'naturally' favorable to Pog & Evenepoel but I'm really not so sure, i.e. 'if' Vingegaard is really at his best then he's just as capable as the others of gaining time here.

Rog meanwhile has to show some improvement & be able to follow wheels, otherwise the time gap will go in the wrong direction to the point of no return, even before the Pyrenees.

 

[Medvind]

So what do we know about the descent after Puy Mary climb?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Remco will definitely NOT help Jonas if Tadej is gone alone and they are sitting together. He will just sit on the wheel and expect Jonas to do all the work (which he should), and then attack him on Perthus or the last climb. No help at all should be expected from Jonas in that scenario given how Jonas and Visma approached the race so far.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If Vingegaard is at his normal level, no one is dropping him here. In fact the opposite could happen.

I'm curious to see how Visma race this one because the popular belief that long cols at altitude are where Vingegaard is superior doesn't exactly match the reality of the past couple of seasons. He was very strong in Itzulia 2023 & he demolished everyone on Marie Blanque last year.

Everyone on social media seems to be talking about this terrain being 'naturally' favorable to Pog & Evenepoel but I'm really not so sure, i.e. 'if' Vingegaard is really at his best then he's just as capable as the others of gaining time here.

Rog meanwhile has to show some improvement & be able to follow wheels, otherwise the time gap will go in the wrong direction to the point of no return, even before the Pyrenees.

Likely Visma is capable of controlling deep into the stage.

 

[Berniece]

So what do we know about the descent after Puy Mary climb?

Where the red 1 is, that's the top of the climb, and then they go downhill to the south.

 

[Valv.Piti]

If Vingegaard is at his normal level, no one is dropping him here. In fact the opposite could happen.

I'm curious to see how Visma race this one because the popular belief that long cols at altitude are where Vingegaard is superior doesn't exactly match the reality of the past couple of seasons. He was very strong in Itzulia 2023 & he demolished everyone on Marie Blanque last year.

Everyone on social media seems to be talking about this terrain being 'naturally' favorable to Pog & Evenepoel but I'm really not so sure, i.e. 'if' Vingegaard is really at his best then he's just as capable as the others of gaining time here.

Rog meanwhile has to show some improvement & be able to follow wheels, otherwise the time gap will go in the wrong direction to the point of no return, even before the Pyrenees.

I think Marie Blanque was an aberration, but anyway, its a good point. Vingegaard can hold his own, but I still don't believe he's at 100%, so it would only be natural for Tadej (and maybe also Remco, and why not Roglic) to grab any opportunity on this kind of terrain which traditionally should suit them all very, very well. There are two sprinter stages afterwards anyways, so you try to take the chances available to you IMO and make a judgement call if you should continue given how he responds.

 

[Medvind]

If Vingegaard is at his normal level, no one is dropping him here. In fact the opposite could happen.

I'm curious to see how Visma race this one because the popular belief that long cols at altitude are where Vingegaard is superior doesn't exactly match the reality of the past couple of seasons. He was very strong in Itzulia 2023 & he demolished everyone on Marie Blanque last year.

Everyone on social media seems to be talking about this terrain being 'naturally' favorable to Pog & Evenepoel but I'm really not so sure, i.e. 'if' Vingegaard is really at his best then he's just as capable as the others of gaining time here.

Rog meanwhile has to show some improvement & be able to follow wheels, otherwise the time gap will go in the wrong direction to the point of no return, even before the Pyrenees.

Agree with you. I actually speculated what would happen if Jumbo LAB started ridning hard from 70-80k out, when it gets more lumpy and starts to go up, like they have done on other occasions with Laporte, van Baarle and Hooydonck, putting almost everyone in red. Now they might not quite have the team to do that and they might still be a bit uncertain how strong Vinge really is. And this year UAE is also much stronger.

 

[Berniece]

I think Marie Blanque was an aberration, but anyway, its a good point. Vingegaard can hold his own, but I still don't believe he's at 100%, so it would only be natural for Tadej (and maybe also Remco, and why not Roglic) to grab any opportunity on this kind of terrain which traditionally should suit them all very, very well.

I really hope Roglic will try an all or nothing move this Tour. Doubt he will since he has never ever done that in his life, but would be great to see.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I really hope Roglic will try an all or nothing move this Tour. Doubt he will since he has never ever done that in his life, but would be great to see.

Rogla more or less always raced for the overall, only exception being injured to such extent, that was not possible any more.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Vingegaard is at his normal level, no one is dropping him here. In fact the opposite could happen.

I'm curious to see how Visma race this one because the popular belief that long cols at altitude are where Vingegaard is superior doesn't exactly match the reality of the past couple of seasons. He was very strong in Itzulia 2023 & he demolished everyone on Marie Blanque last year.

Everyone on social media seems to be talking about this terrain being 'naturally' favorable to Pog & Evenepoel but I'm really not so sure, i.e. 'if' Vingegaard is really at his best then he's just as capable as the others of gaining time here.

Rog meanwhile has to show some improvement & be able to follow wheels, otherwise the time gap will go in the wrong direction to the point of no return, even before the Pyrenees.

Vingegaard obviously has shown some great 10 minute (or less) climbing efforts in the past so it'll be very hard to drop him in good form if we look at pure w/kg. Still, this stage presents some opportunities i.e. an attack by Remco/Pogacar/both can happen towards the end of a climb/on a shallower section and given that the terrain offers also downhills, false flats and is varying it's definitely better than a 15-20 km climb at the end (where there's generally no escape from an in-form Vingegaard).

 

[tobydawq]

If Vingegaard is at his normal level, no one is dropping him here. In fact the opposite could happen.

Uh, why not? How could Pog drop him on Puy de Dôme, Cauterets and Joux Plane then?

 

[Lequack]

There is a start of a new romance

 

[CyclistAbi]

Time for a new thread, Pogi and Remco vs Rogla and Jonas? Love Island (San Sebastian).

P.S. I don't know to be honest, peloton is a hard place for bromance to thrive.

 

[Netserk]

Uh, why not? How could Pog drop him on Puy de Dôme, Cauterets and Joux Plane then?

The first is a good counter. The other two are not.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

2020 stage was a beauty, I love the aesthetics of the massif central and Puy Mary is a fantastic climb. Impossible for this stage not to please me.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Good morning, chaps!

At the end of the day, look for Matej Mohorič to raise his hands in victory at the finish line from a breakaway.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Joux Plane was the perfect stage for Jonas (super hard mountain stage with very hot weather) and he still got in trouble in that day.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So who will pull more for Pogi today, Ayuso or Remco?

 

[DarkBlue]

Are we allowed to talk about betting on these threads?

Healy at 50/1 for Polka Dot Jersey looks a big price ahead of todays stage.

 

[AmRacer]

Remco will definitely NOT help Jonas if Tadej is gone alone and they are sitting together. He will just sit on the wheel and expect Jonas to do all the work (which he should), and then attack him on Perthus or the last climb. No help at all should be expected from Jonas in that scenario given how Jonas and Visma approached the race so far.

If Remco can find an ally to secure a podium spot, he'll take that chance.

 

[Netserk]

Joux Plane was the perfect stage for Jonas (super hard mountain stage with very hot weather) and he still got in trouble in that day.

Absolutely, he had him on the ropes. But a (failed) attack that never gets more than ~5" and gets reeled in again after 5 minutes on the same climb is not what I typically would classify as dropping someone.

 

[Netserk]

Are we allowed to talk about betting on these threads?

Healy at 50/1 for Polka Dot Jersey looks a big price ahead of todays stage.

Healy can't take the jersey today, as there's only 25 points on offer.

If it's for winning the competition, I'd still have Healy far down in the pickings.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Absolutely, he had him on the ropes. But a (failed) attack that never gets more than ~5" and gets reeled in again after 5 minutes on the same climb is not what I typically would classify as dropping someone.

I agree with you.