Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 11: Évaux-les-Bains > Le Lioran, 211km

[Tonton]

Romain winning in the Massif Central, his home: WOW! Writing the best page of his book...he will do everything to give it a shot, be in the break, and the break should take it. Allez Romain!

I disagree with a couple of posts: if Remco goes, Pog is not going to take a chance, play chicken with The New Chicken : you can't take Remco Evenepoel lightly, are you insane? You may never see that minute again! If you contemplate these tactics, please seek medical attention. Seriously...

Pogacar is not going to take chances. Remco has to do something: this stage suits him really well, he needs to make the best of his opportunities, and this is one on this route. Tadej and Remco have shown that they can work together, I would think that they (and their DSs) want to know more about Jonas, his form, and his team. This is the perfect time to know more and I hope that we will.

 

[Gratemans]

I think there are 3 potential outcomes; either Pogi will win solo by over a minute, Pogi and Evenepoel will take over a minute out of the field or a break wins and the GC all finish on the same time. Pogi will attack on the harder climbs and if he gaps Vingegaard then he will take a chunk of time as he's already shown he can descend better this year and he will be stronger on the less steep climbs. If he doesn't, the interest from GC group will fizzle out and nothing much will happen from then on

Why are so many people always predicting "Either it's gonna be GC carnage or the break takes it!" while one doesn't exclude the other at all.
People for some weird reason seem to forget how often the harder stages end up being both: the break takes it, and there's a GC battle behind where significant differences are made.

 

[Froome]

This stage is very well designed, one of the few positive things of this route.
Unfortunately i will not be able to see live.

 

[movingtarget]

Good stage for the break. But any GC action could make it close at the finish. UAE tactics will be very interesting.

 

[Nick2413]

Why are so many people always predicting "Either it's gonna be GC carnage or the break takes it!" while one doesn't exclude the other at all.
People for some weird reason seem to forget how often the harder stages end up being both: the break takes it, and there's a GC battle behind where significant differences are made.

Le Grand Bornand ‘21 maybe the biggest raid of Pogacar’s career, although Roglic was injured.

 

[yaco]

He's been sat at the back all race looking disinterested, 15 minutes down, so if he can be arsed to move himself into a proper position this from the break;

I think the stage is a bit too long for UAE to both control and win the stage but Pogacar will attack on Puy Mary. Visma should look to get Van Aert or Benoot in the break, Vingegaard will need someone for the descents otherwise he could lose a lot if Pogacar gets a bit of distance at the top and from far out.

History shows that when S.Yates prepares for GC and shows no form, then he struggles to lift his level for the rest of the race. One can hope!

 

[jaylew]

That tt is up, down and 5km flat. Pog may lose 10 seconds in the flat part, but will gain 20 on the climb and as much in the descent.

Yes, I'm aware of the profile but I stand by my statement.

 

[shalgo]

Put Ayuso in the break.

 

[scribers]

Vingegaard won't chase Evenepoel, given the last couple of days Pogacar could also gamble and look around saying go on then, he chased on Sunday and it was a mistake. It might be an opportunity for Evenepoel if the timing is right and the climbs look good for him, 15 minutes, reasonable steepness, it's a bit San Sebastian.

I don’t know if pogi chasing remco was a mistake. Let’s say remco stays away and works with the break. It isnt absolute pogi gets that time back. Vingo ain’t chasing remco under any circumstance. Hes riding to live or die on pogis wheel. That’s his strategy.

 

[scribers]

Put Ayuso in the break.

I want to say it’s an great opportunity for glory (see Kuss vuelta). But the guy just wants a protected ride.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Wrote this during Italian stages. Nothing has changed:

This is the stage where UAE are deemed to display that they are smarter than so, playing the cards strong. Should be able to set everybody else under tremendous pressure from the distance.

...unless they're 112% confident that Pogi will be able to manage Vinge, Rogla and Remco himself in the real mountains still to come....

Today (rather late night, again it's most likely I'll miss live signal for full stage) I'm looking forward to plenty races in one. In fact so much that I'll be dissapointed if that doesn't happen.

(Why's OP still not pinned? six and a haft hours past dayshift Paris time and 14½ hours past Canbarra dayshift time)

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Put Ayuso in the break.

Ayuso should be extremely well aware of the seriousness in having him to see himself as a 100% team player and nothing else

The dream scenario for UAE is a stage with a big breakaway, preferably with Ayuso plus/or other UAE riders- the double ramps in the beautiful volcano area Pogi can use to wrestle completely free of Jonas, jump up to a couple of teammates and up to the breakaway group again , promise to give away the stage victory in return for ensuring 100% cooperation in the group of strong people.

Not that this will result in a 1996 Pamplona dimensions stage, but you can talk about 1-3 minutes if everything gets bogged down to the benefit of UAE.

 

[Berniece]

As if UAE is going to put any of Ayuso, Almeida or Yates in the breakaway… Chance of them making it and doing a Vuelta-Kuss is too high even though that chance is small. They will stay together, Politt and Wellens will keep the break in check, and they’ll just tempo uphill until Pogi goes

 

[ice&fire]

Put Ayuso in the break.

and Landa too.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Remco needs to be careful of playing games with the big 2. He could take advantage of them, eyeing each other up and not taking him into account. If he plays his own game, then he could get his podium, if not, he could end up way down the order.

 

[Peter von]

Given that Ajuso/Almeida are 4th- 7th in the race you may as well use them as weapons. And I don't think MTF's are better suited for that tactic.

But you open up the race in all sorts of ways that can lead to the strongest rider not winning it.
Carlos Rodrigues could join the attack, Jorgensen, Landa and Hindley could team up to control the break so Ayuso is just cooking himself 30 seconds in front. Heck Movistar could show up out of nowhere to kill the move because they are riding for teams classification.

You prevent Pogi from launching an attack unless Jonas and Remco are really cooked.

Ayuso and/or Almeida presumably needs quite a lot of time to be a real headache for Jonas and Remco in third week.

 

[Vudy]

I agree it seems like a good stage for Pogacar to launch an attack—

Pogačar attacks 100%. Last part of Puy Mary is perfect to launch and then drill it on the descent. Depends also how much help Vingegaard has at this point...

 

[Berniece]

Remco needs to be careful of playing games with the big 2. He could take advantage of them, eyeing each other up and not taking him into account. If he plays his own game, then he could get his podium, if not, he could end up way down the order.

We already saw during the gravel stage that at least Pogacar takes him into account. Pogacar knows that in normal circumstances he'll win from Evenepoel, but I wouldn't give him 2min because I'm focusing on Vingegaard.

 

[Medvind]

So will Vinge just try to follow if Pog attacks, or will Vinge and Jumbo LAB try to be more proactive, knowing that a strong Pog attack like om Galibier could be hard to follow and if Vinge is isolated in the chase he might lose a minute.
But what could they do? Try to get someone in the break that could help Vinge in the end? Will UAE allow that? Will Vinge himself try to attack before Pog? Seems risky, he will probably get counterattacked.

Maybe we will see Remco and Vinge try to chase Pog back. Seems like a strong combo, balls on fire!
But will Remco work with Jonas? He know that Jonas will be desperate and probably will chase even if Remco doesn't contribute. So let Jonas chase and then attack him?

 

[Berniece]

So will Vinge just try to follow if Pog attacks, or will Vinge and Jumbo LAB try to be more proactive, knowing that a strong Pog attack like om Galibier could be hard to follow and if Vinge is isolated in the chase he might lose a minute.
But what could they do? Try to get someone in the break that could help Vinge in the end? Will UAE allow that? Will Vinge himself try to attack before Pog? Seems risky, he will probably get counterattacked.

Maybe we will see Remco and Vinge try to chase Pog back. Seems like a strong combo, balls on fire!
But will Remco work with Jonas? He know that Jonas will be desperate and probably will chase even if Remco doesn't contribute. So let Jonas chase and then attack him?

Probably too soon to try themselves, unless they are rattled by the "big balls" comment, which I doubt. They will just follow.

 

[AmRacer]

Probably too soon to try themselves, unless they are rattled by the "big balls" comment, which I doubt. They will just follow.

To follow Pogi when he attacks, you must have big balls or you get burned. Or be Jonas

 

[Netserk]

Derek Gee to take yellow.

 

[solo80k]

UAE should put the pressure on Visma by sending Yates to the break. If break isn't chased down by Visma, UAE will have 4 guys in top 8 probably, very bad solution for Visma. If they chase Yates down, they will burn some matches.

But of course it won't happen because UAE will try to keep all guns with Pog and FAFO later in the race. 😅

 

[Medvind]

UAE should put the pressure on Visma by sending Yates to the break. If break isn't chased down by Visma, UAE will have 4 guys in top 8 probably, very bad solution for Visma. If they chase Yates down, they will burn some matches.

But of course it won't happen because UAE will try to keep all guns with Pog and FAFO later in the race. 😅

Not the optimal stage to get inte break for Yates, first 100k quite flat, and on more flatter terrain Jumbo has some power.

Maybe Jumbo will let van Aert try to go in the break, a van Aert in good shape could force UAE doms to work hard close him down.

 

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