Armstrong warns all his rivals!

[Bike Boy]

If I was anyone but AC I'd be trying to help LA's plans on the cobbles, not neutralize them. The way I see it the Tour is AC's to lose and since he's the best in the mountains and perhaps even the TT, any other contender should try to take time on him on the cobbles.

I agree, especially if BMC gets invited. The fight for positions will be thrilling

BMC Ballan, Hincapie and Burghardt

Sky Flecha, Arvesen and EBH.

Saxo Bank Cancellara, O'Grady, Breschel and Frank Høj (probably not going to participate though)

RadioShack Actually rather weak in comparison but, I guess riders like Vaitkus, Rosseler and Rast can do the job. And I'm pretty sure they will be very keen to exploit this opportunity. After all, this is where you would expect them to put on a show.

Garmin Maaskant

Rabobank Nuyens, Posthuma, maybe Langeveld (if he will participate)

Besides that i would like to say that it has been very interesting to read the last couple of pages on this thread. Many different aspects of the tactics have been highlighted.

 

[kurtinsc]

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on contenders being guided through the cobbles. When they hit Haveluy about ten kilometres from the finish, I expect a frenetic pace.

How do you mean this? Is it that you don't think just having a teammate who can lead you through the cobbles would be enough... that experience/ability to do so yourself would matter more?

If so... perhaps Wiggins and Armstrong would have the most to gain in that situation (as both have top 30's in major cobbled races). Are there other GC guys that have direct experience riding races like Flanders or Roubaix?

I hope it lives up to expectations... but deep down I expect it will be like Ventoux. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[ScottyMuser]

Finally others are seeing how strong Liquigas are for the TDF - I fully expect them to have ALL their big four hitters (Basso/Nibali/Kreuzeiger/Pelizotti) with Zaugg/Smzyd - which gives them a frankly HUGE pool of support climbers; far FAR stronger the RetirementShack; and although they may not have the strongest cobbles riders, don't forget last year Quinziato came top 10 in BOTH G-W and Roubaix, so can cobblews and has a punch

Cobbles could play an important part, if a team like Quickstep put the hammer down to get the stage winner and teams stupidly decide to follow them.
Otherwise, the teams with the strongest support for the cobbles will probably be Sky (Flecha/KAA/Hayman/Wiggo), Saxo (Breschel/fabfab!) & CTT (Thor/Haussler)

For me, without the TTT, I think, if things go right, LA *could* top 5, but he would have to have everything going for him, and maybe falls from other top 5 competitors; I would *love* for Liquigas on the first mountain stage just for the hell of it to go, as a whole TEAM (as they probably could unless they take Bennati/Chicchi), for a break and see who has the team to follow - maybe if they can make an "agreement" with Euskatel ;-)

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

How do you mean this? Is it that you don't think just having a teammate who can lead you through the cobbles would be enough... that experience/ability to do so yourself would matter more?

If so... perhaps Wiggins and Armstrong would have the most to gain in that situation (as both have top 30's in major cobbled races). Are there other GC guys that have direct experience riding races like Flanders or Roubaix?

I hope it lives up to expectations... but deep down I expect it will be like Ventoux. I hope I'm wrong.

I think, potentially, there will be a lot of chaos in the last section of cobbles and having a teammate close by won't necessarily protect the contenders. Depending how the stage unfolds, you could see classics specialists trying to break for a stage win, GC contenders trying to gain time on other contenders, or maybe even some classics inclined sprinters like Thor or EBH getting in the mix for a field sprint (I don't think Cav will be up front ). It just has the potential to be pretty crazy. On the other hand, it might be a fairly reasonable pace with nobody taking any risks, just trying to get out safely...boring!

EDIT: I just remembered there is less than 13 km of cobbles, with the last section being less than 3, so it may not be that eventful. Perhaps, out of excitement, I'm overestimating the stage.

 

[LeonG2010]

Narcissism

For LA we have to understand that everything is about him - the tour, the team, the partner whoever she happens to be, cycling news, the so-called Livestrong charade which pays him a royal lifestyle with almost no financial accountability and so on. The narcissism that supports most of us to a functional degree is for LA becoming slowly dysfunctional. He is also playing up the hostility with Alberto who is too dignified and too stable a personality to be drawn into the Americans puerile immature game. To cast veiled insults at Alberto's background and cultural environment is a compliment for the great Spanish cyclist: LA over-extended his Twitter there and failed. Having heard LA claim that cycling is about team work during the TdF 2009 is all we needed to hear from an egocentric Type A personality who imagines he has come to save professional cycling and all cancer sufferers while aggrandising his own public image prior to launching his political campaign for public office. Unfortunately, we are going to hear plenty more nonsense from this insecure and unfulfilled semi-adolescent character who is unable to accept that he is a one-race cyclist and that his career is as tainted as most of the other professional cyclists of his epoch.

 

[Carboncrank]

For LA we have to understand that everything is about him - the tour, the team, the partner whoever she happens to be, cycling news, the so-called Livestrong charade which pays him a royal lifestyle with almost no financial accountability and so on. The narcissism that supports most of us to a functional degree is for LA becoming slowly dysfunctional. He is also playing up the hostility with Alberto who is too dignified and too stable a personality to be drawn into the Americans puerile immature game. To cast veiled insults at Alberto's background and cultural environment is a compliment for the great Spanish cyclist: LA over-extended his Twitter there and failed. Having heard LA claim that cycling is about team work during the TdF 2009 is all we needed to hear from an egocentric Type A personality who imagines he has come to save professional cycling and all cancer sufferers while aggrandising his own public image prior to launching his political campaign for public office. Unfortunately, we are going to hear plenty more nonsense from this insecure and unfulfilled semi-adolescent character who is unable to accept that he is a one-race cyclist and that his career is as tainted as most of the other professional cyclists of his epoch.

He's obviously more secure and fulfilled that most of his critics.

I think someone that reads his commentary as insults, when they clearly we not and not intended to be, must be the one who is insecure. If he wanted to insult, I'm sure he could do a better job than that.

You comments? DDSS... different day same $hit.

You're full of pseudo psychological crap.

 

[Big GMaC]

He's obviously more secure and fulfilled that most of his critics.

I think someone that reads his commentary as insults, when they clearly we not and not intended to be, must be the one who is insecure. If he wanted to insult, I'm sure he could do a better job than that.

You comments? DDSS... different day same $hit.

You're full of pseudo psychological crap.

1. He is horrendously insecure. See his reactions to Alberto this year. Hell, his reason for coming back may even have been to get one more TdF to put the overall record further out of Berto's grasp, or drive him away from the Hog who Lance knows can win the tour with his 'methods'

See also how he always leaps to the everyone loves cancer defence, he has reason to be insecure, he has doped, he knows he is constantly running.

2. He is not, despite what people may say, intelligent, man didn't graduate high school even. I don't think he has the intellectual sophistication to conjure up deeply cutting insults, all he can do is use his power within the sport to marginalise people, and that hasn't required brains. Just drugs

3. I think your hero uses it as SSDD, as does everyone else actually.

4. how is it 'pseudo' psychological crap? Interpretation of subjective statements is now only allowed for qualified shinks? Because if that is so I am pretty sure you should be shutting the f()ck up...

 

[Ripper]

You're full of psychological crap.

I actually agree with Big GMaC, but thought I'd fix the one statement of yours I agree with.

 

[Carboncrank]

I actually agree with Big GMaC, but thought I'd fix the one statement of yours I agree with.

HELLO MODERATORS!!!!?

I do NOT appreciate your help "fixing" my words.
Changing words after someones name is forbidden in this forum.

Originally Posted by Carboncrank
You're full of pseudo psychological crap.

Was CHANGED by Ripper.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carboncrank
You're full of psychological crAP

 

[Big GMaC]

HELLO MODERATORS!!!!?

I do NOT appreciate your help "fixing" my words.
Changing words after someones name is forbidden in this forum.


Was CHANGED by Ripper.

BUT MOM......

Grow up you whining little [clipped]

Its not like he changed something subversively, he told you what he was doing, presumeably for amusment, not out of malice

 

[BroDeal]

HELLO MODERATORS!!!!?

I do NOT appreciate your help "fixing" my words.
Changing words after someones name is forbidden in this forum.

ROTFL. The troll is complaing that others are annoying him. That is rich.

 

[Ripper]

I do appreciate your help "fixing" my words.

Oh! Well I never expected that. I'll see if I can help more in the future

 

[53 x 11]

HELLO MODERATORS!!!!?

I do NOT appreciate your help "fixing" my words.
Changing words after someones name is forbidden in this forum.


Was CHANGED by Ripper.

 

[Galic Ho]

Finally others are seeing how strong Liquigas are for the TDF - I fully expect them to have ALL their big four hitters (Basso/Nibali/Kreuzeiger/Pelizotti) with Zaugg/Smzyd - which gives them a frankly HUGE pool of support climbers; far FAR stronger the RetirementShack; and although they may not have the strongest cobbles riders, don't forget last year Quinziato came top 10 in BOTH G-W and Roubaix, so can cobblews and has a punch

Cobbles could play an important part, if a team like Quickstep put the hammer down to get the stage winner and teams stupidly decide to follow them.
Otherwise, the teams with the strongest support for the cobbles will probably be Sky (Flecha/KAA/Hayman/Wiggo), Saxo (Breschel/fabfab!) & CTT (Thor/Haussler)

For me, without the TTT, I think, if things go right, LA *could* top 5, but he would have to have everything going for him, and maybe falls from other top 5 competitors; I would *love* for Liquigas on the first mountain stage just for the hell of it to go, as a whole TEAM (as they probably could unless they take Bennati/Chicchi), for a break and see who has the team to follow - maybe if they can make an "agreement" with Euskatel ;-)

Liquigas? Not as strong as you think. Did they make any accelerations or power moves in any grand tour last year? Did they set tempo and drop GC hopefuls? Will that change a year on? No to all counts, except Pellizotti at the Giro. Liquigas will not be setting pace for any other teams front runners. Why? Because they don't have the legs and engines to do so. Maybe if they sacrificed all the riders for one man on their squad, then and only then could I see it working. But who do you nominate? Someone will gripe and complain and we will see something like Basso and Pellizotti at the Giro. Non compliant teammates who stuff up good opportunities.

The cobbles are on one stage for 17kms. Nothing will happen. Nothing, except maybe some sprinters/classic riders get in a small breakaway and win the stage. Hoping for a miracle in a 17km section in the first week is ridiculous. Won't happen. You can't make enough time on the Schleck's and Contador in such a short space and know they won't take it back in the Alps.

Liquigas stronger than the Retirement Shack? Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden, Horner, Popovych and Zubeldia versus the Liquigas team? Pretty even. With one advantage to the Shack. They have the gumption to set pace and try and dictate terms. It won't work in slowing Astana and Saxo but it will against other teams. Personally I think both the Shack and Liquigas are overrated. I hope the other DS's let Liquigas, the Shack and Sky waste their time pulling up front and then pounce on them.

 

[Galic Ho]

Out of the GC candidates projected to be at the Tour (2010): Basso, Valverde, Frank Schleck

I could easily swap Basso out for one of the young guns (Nibali or Gesink (but I'm not sold on his TT ability). Sammy Sanchez and Joaquim Rodriguez will be in the mix as well, but I'm not sold on their GC cred yet (TT skills).

WTF? Samu came second in the Vuelta! His chrono was as good if not better than any of the other GC riders there. Plus he fell in the second week. Basso is overrated.

Climbers in order:
1. Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Frank Schleck, may drop in the final week down to 5 and 6 riders form.
4. Carlos Sastre, if he is on form. He won't be because he will win the Giro.
4. Samu and Valverde
5. Evans, Menchov, and maybe Levi.
6. Vino, Lance, Kloden, Vandevelde and Basso without broken bones
7. Wiggins, Nibali, Kreuziger, LLS and Gesink

That is how the climbs will roughly go. There will be gaps between those groups if they force the issue. The only way riders rated between 6 and 7 go higher is if they go slower one day in order to get KOM or a stage win on another day. I'd put Kloden higher but he is a workhorse and lacks the brains to make a move stick. The top five will be riders between 1 through to 5, excluding Levi and Sastre, based on form for the last few years and race dynamics from last season. Nothing changes this year. Sure, one Liquigas rider has a chance to go high, but one only and with a major improvement from 2009. I don't see it happening. Sastre, Evans and Menchov in the correct race in form are always going to top 5 for GC in a GT. The riders listed after them above, do not have that luxury in 2010.

Liquigas and the Shack do not put any rider ahead of those I mentioned above between 1 and 5. On an even brighter side, the ITT will be similar, just move the Schleck's and Sastre down and put Kloden and Levi up a notch, along with Wiggins and LLS. Lance and Basso need to improve (whcih they've been saying they have but I'm yet to see squat). Lance is right now 15 seconds better than Andy. 20 over Nibali. Not nearly good enough. As I've been saying for months now, an all Spanish podium is looking very strong, because their top 3 riders (also top 3 in the world) are terrific in all fields. They only drop time to one another and Sastre, Evans and Menchov when those guys have great days. Only Saxo can stop the Spanish juggernaut.

 

[blackcat]

WTF? Samu came second in the Vuelta! His chrono was as good if not better than any of the other GC riders there. Plus he fell in the second week. Basso is overrated.

Climbers in order:
1. Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Frank Schleck, may drop in the final week down to 5 and 6 riders form.
4. Carlos Sastre, if he is on form. He won't be because he will win the Giro.
4. Samu and Valverde
5. Evans, Menchov, and maybe Levi.
6. Vino, Lance, Kloden, Vandevelde and Basso without broken bones
7. Wiggins, Nibali, Kreuziger, LLS and Gesink

That is how the climbs will roughly go. There will be gaps between those groups if they force the issue. The only way riders rated between 6 and 7 go higher is if they go slower one day in order to get KOM or a stage win on another day. I'd put Kloden higher but he is a workhorse and lacks the brains to make a move stick. The top five will be riders between 1 through to 5, excluding Levi and Sastre, based on form for the last few years and race dynamics from last season. Nothing changes this year. Sure, one Liquigas rider has a chance to go high, but one only and with a major improvement from 2009. I don't see it happening. Sastre, Evans and Menchov in the correct race in form are always going to top 5 for GC in a GT. The riders listed after them above, do not have that luxury in 2010.

Liquigas and the Shack do not put any rider ahead of those I mentioned above between 1 and 5. On an even brighter side, the ITT will be similar, just move the Schleck's and Sastre down and put Kloden and Levi up a notch, along with Wiggins and LLS. Lance and Basso need to improve (whcih they've been saying they have but I'm yet to see squat). Lance is right now 15 seconds better than Andy. 20 over Nibali. Not nearly good enough. As I've been saying for months now, an all Spanish podium is looking very strong, because their top 3 riders (also top 3 in the world) are terrific in all fields. They only drop time to one another and Sastre, Evans and Menchov when those guys have great days. Only Saxo can stop the Spanish juggernaut.

you really gotta lose your fascination with Sammy Sanchez. He won Olympics, he is a good rider, but you overrate him.

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

HELLO MODERATORS!!!!?

I do NOT appreciate your help "fixing" my words.
Changing words after someones name is forbidden in this forum.


Was CHANGED by Ripper.

Agreed. This is not acceptable. There are other ways to disagree with what someone has written.

Susan

 

[Hammerhed]

Swordsman, Can the public expect Lance to win along the way? The public can do what it darn well pleases, but I don't think the public's expectation phases Lance very much. Prior to Comeback No. Two, Lance's pre-Tour races were all tune-up races, and nobody really expected him to win anything at all, though many of us still cheered him on. Still, he did manage to bag a few along the way, including the Dauphine Libere a few times if I remember correctly. So should we hold him to the same standard all other racers are held to? Sure, hold away. I wonder though, do we expect Carlos Sastre to win anything along the way? How about Cadel? I think we all expect Andy Schleck and Valverde to win in the Ardennes, and we do expect Alberto to win everything he enters, but we have those expectations because the riders have them. Schleck wants to win in March/April. Am I right, or no?

 

[Galic Ho]

you really gotta lose your fascination with Sammy Sanchez. He won Olympics, he is a good rider, but you overrate him.

I know. But he did beat Evans, Basso, Gesink and Mosqueira at the Vuelta (even including a fall). But if that is the only issue, I'll take it as a compliment. You didn't mention anything else I wrote, so I'll take it on some level you agree with the rest of it. Maybe not the Wiggins part, but its a guess, a punt. Harmless really. I mean, who picked him to podium again at the Vuelta in 2009? I don't care if he doesn't podium or top 5. Good thing about cycling is there are lots of names to follow, so if someone doesn't perform or has a mishap, I can cheer another. I thought Levi would win the Giro last year. That evaporated on stage 16.

If Samu climbs and gets his chrono right, I can't see why he won't top 5. Euskatel showed last year they will work to protect a rider at the Tour. They worked to try and stop Pellizotti getting the KOM. Didn't end out the way they wanted, but with Samu there, they may have some success. I'd love to see Igor Anton grab a stage win in the mountains.

Just remembered why I fancy his chances, along with Valverde's. They both said their aim for 2010 is the Tour. Both men are confident they can podium. I believe they can based on the Vuelta last year. I believed they could before then based on climbs at the 2008 Tour. Problem was they both didn't race in 2009. Vuelta gave them the confidence to have a serious crack at the Tour. Forgot to mention, though I rate Contador as nigh on unbeatable, I could see someone like Samu, dropping him on a decent and gaining back some time before the finish line for the stage. I'll wait to see the stage profiles before I comment anymore. Might not be possible.

 

[Galic Ho]

Swordsman, Can the public expect Lance to win along the way? So should we hold him to the same standard all other racers are held to? Sure, hold away. I wonder though, do we expect Carlos Sastre to win anything along the way? How about Cadel? I think we all expect Andy Schleck and Valverde to win in the Ardennes, and we do expect Alberto to win everything he enters, but we have those expectations because the riders have them. Schleck wants to win in March/April. Am I right, or no?

Check the bold. Lance has the expectation of winning the Tour. Had it last year as well. Last year will make this year look pleasant on his final GC standing.

I expect both Carlos and Cadel to win something along the way. Starting at the Giro. I'll be shocked if they both leave without a stage win. Carlos on the Zoncolan and Cadel in a ITT. Also have them in first and second, on my books anyway, on GC in that order. Simply for the irony of Cadel finishing second to another Spaniard. Pellizotti may upturn the apple cart, but that seems to be it right now. All the other lead monkeys are training for France.

 

[LeonG2010]

La<ac

"You're full of pseudo psychological crap".[/QUOTE]

This remark is a subjective one and displays possible insecurity. It is not an argument. Most people here can see this comment for what it is.

I have exemplified some of my statements to demonstrate some sides of LA's personality which are based on my own work in educational psychology and character analysis. These are my perspectives which I do not claim to be infallible. However, your comment can hardly be taken seriously.

It would be better if you discuss my post point by point where you believe it is not a psychological observation.

Some members such as Mellow Velo are far more objective in their replies.

 

[LeonG2010]

WTF? Samu came second in the Vuelta! His chrono was as good if not better than any of the other GC riders there. Plus he fell in the second week. Basso is overrated.

Climbers in order:
1. Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Frank Schleck, may drop in the final week down to 5 and 6 riders form.
4. Carlos Sastre, if he is on form. He won't be because he will win the Giro.
4. Samu and Valverde
5. Evans, Menchov, and maybe Levi.
6. Vino, Lance, Kloden, Vandevelde and Basso without broken bones
7. Wiggins, Nibali, Kreuziger, LLS and Gesink

This is an interesting set of expectations - One or two comments.

a. Don't you think that Bradley Wiggins will be an even more improved version of the 2009 edition to merit higher expectations than this?
b. Sanchez may well slip back in the third week.
c. I could be wrong but I feel Basso's best days are over.

While LA states he is better than last year so will all those young greats AC, F & AS who still have room for improvement, especially the Schlecks with ITTs. Also, Frank will not have a recurring pain in his knee as he had for much of last season.

 

[UpTheRoad]

Agreed. This is not acceptable. There are other ways to disagree with what someone has written.

Susan

The manner in which CarbonCrank complains about people deliberately misquoting him invites similar responses. Practically begs for it. This was clearly a case where the change was explicitly noted and he still blew a gasket.

His anger at perceived slights rivals that of his hero. It's comical and I think it should be encouraged.

 

[BroDeal]

The manner in which CarbonCrank complains about people deliberately misquoting him invites similar responses. Practically begs for it. This was clearly a case where the change was explicitly noted and he still blew a gasket.

His anger at perceived slights rivals that of his hero. It's comical and I think it should be encouraged.

Yup. The "fixed it for you" quote change is a common rhetorical practice on message boards. CN would to do something about trollboy deliberately ruining threads he targets by spending the entire day filling them with crap so that no one wants to open those threads. Often forty or fifty percent of the posts on a page of such threads are by him.

 

[Publicus]

WTF? Samu came second in the Vuelta! His chrono was as good if not better than any of the other GC riders there. Plus he fell in the second week. Basso is overrated.

Climbers in order:
1. Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Frank Schleck, may drop in the final week down to 5 and 6 riders form.
4. Carlos Sastre, if he is on form. He won't be because he will win the Giro.
4. Samu and Valverde
5. Evans, Menchov, and maybe Levi.
6. Vino, Lance, Kloden, Vandevelde and Basso without broken bones
7. Wiggins, Nibali, Kreuziger, LLS and Gesink

That is how the climbs will roughly go. There will be gaps between those groups if they force the issue. The only way riders rated between 6 and 7 go higher is if they go slower one day in order to get KOM or a stage win on another day. I'd put Kloden higher but he is a workhorse and lacks the brains to make a move stick. The top five will be riders between 1 through to 5, excluding Levi and Sastre, based on form for the last few years and race dynamics from last season. Nothing changes this year. Sure, one Liquigas rider has a chance to go high, but one only and with a major improvement from 2009. I don't see it happening. Sastre, Evans and Menchov in the correct race in form are always going to top 5 for GC in a GT. The riders listed after them above, do not have that luxury in 2010.

Liquigas and the Shack do not put any rider ahead of those I mentioned above between 1 and 5. On an even brighter side, the ITT will be similar, just move the Schleck's and Sastre down and put Kloden and Levi up a notch, along with Wiggins and LLS. Lance and Basso need to improve (whcih they've been saying they have but I'm yet to see squat). Lance is right now 15 seconds better than Andy. 20 over Nibali. Not nearly good enough. As I've been saying for months now, an all Spanish podium is looking very strong, because their top 3 riders (also top 3 in the world) are terrific in all fields. They only drop time to one another and Sastre, Evans and Menchov when those guys have great days. Only Saxo can stop the Spanish juggernaut.

I'm looking at the ITT in the 2010 Tour de France and I'm just not sure if Sanchez has the motor to pull that off. I've not done a enough research on his past performances in rolling (but not mountainous) time trials of this distance, so there is that caveat. But I do recognize that he is a much better climber than Lance. If that wasn't clear from my original comment, then that was my error.