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Ben Healy is not another Benny Hill but excels in hilly terrain

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My examples are based on actual real world performances of this same rider of the last year. They are the only examples there are, there simply are no other MT climbs he did any more recent. Unlike PCS, i did not "wish" for them to have happened, they actually did. They are also not cherrypicked, they are the hardest mountain stages Healy did most recently. I am not leaving out any better results to build my case. This year, he did Coppi/Bartali and wasn't even able to beat Schmid on a parcours with 5k climbs. How on earth is he going to podium the Giro?

As Samu said, his level last year was so far removed from his level this year that you can't use his performances back then to assess his level now.
 
And i am aware of that. Yet it doesn't prove he can all of a sudden climb with the best. Or are we going to predict De Lie to win the Tour?
We have seen other riders strong in hilly terrain suddenly being able to climb in the high mountains as well.

We already know that he can go uphill fast, and that he has more watts this season than ever before. That makes it more likely (even if that's only ~20 %) that he will suddenly climb fast in the high mountains.

It's not about proving anything, it's about being open to the possibility. And it's far more possible for Healy to podium the Giro than for De Lie to podium the Tour.
 
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We have seen other riders strong in hilly terrain suddenly being able to climb in the high mountains as well.

We already know that he can go uphill fast, and that he has more watts this season than ever before. That makes it more likely (even if that's only ~20 %) that he will suddenly climb fast in the high mountains.

It's not about proving anything, it's about being open to the possibility. And it's far more possible for Healy to podium the Giro than for De Lie to podium the Tour.
I already went over this. Being better than before and having more watts still proves nothing. Evenepoel had proven a lot more and was pushing bigger watts years ago, yet you have been doubting his climbing skills until the Vuelta and certainly the beginning of last season (or maybe even still, i don't know). So let's not pretend my stance is anything but reasonable. And while i obviously don't think De Lie will podium the Tour, the idea behind it is equally silly until we see some actual climbing performances of Healy. Improving on hilly terrain and pushing bigger watts (same thing De Lie has done in the past 12 months) does not make you a climber.

If you ARE a climber, early in your career, you would show a similar trajectory. That much is true. Yet if you are a puncheur or hilly rider, you would also show the same improvements. Him having gotten much better at hilly one day races and pushing bigger numbers, could just as well mean he becomes a rider like Teuns, Madous, De Gendt, Mohoric... A dove is a bird, but not every bird is a dove.
 
I already went over this. Being better than before and having more watts still proves nothing. Evenepoel had proven a lot more and was pushing bigger watts years ago, yet you have been doubting his climbing skills until the Vuelta and certainly the beginning of last season (or maybe even still, i don't know). So let's not pretend my stance is anything but reasonable. And while i obviously don't think De Lie will podium the Tour, the idea behind it is equally silly until we see some actual climbing performances of Healy. Improving on hilly terrain and pushing bigger watts (same thing De Lie has done in the past 12 months) does not make you a climber.

If you ARE a climber, early in your career, you would show a similar trajectory. That much is true. Yet if you are a puncheur or hilly rider, you would also show the same improvements. Him having gotten much better at hilly one day races and pushing bigger numbers, could just as well mean he becomes a rider like Teuns, Madous, De Gendt, Mohoric... A dove is a bird, but not every bird is a dove.
You are aware that you compare predictions in opposite ends of the probability distribution? It's about having the full range in mind.
 
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You are aware that you compare predictions in opposite ends of the probability distribution? It's about having the full range in mind.
Which predictions are you talking about? You know i was using the De Lie comparison to mock the assumption that Healy would suddenly be a podium contender in a GT with a murderous 3rd week. A rider with a terrible track record as a climber, but a good track record in hilly races (even as a junior), becomes a great hilly rider. This is not surprising. It simply does not mean he will all of a sudden be able to climb 20k 10% climbs which he has been terrible at previously.
 
I want to watch these races Logic are talking about. 20 km at 10% sounds pretty awesome.

But seriously, ofc its way too early for him to do something in the Giro. Its his first GT, he hasn't prepped for it, his high climbing is suspect, his 22 years old..

Wouldn't be surprised if he could top-10 a GT a few times or even a bit better, but come on.
 
I want to watch these races Logic are talking about. 20 km at 10% sounds pretty awesome.

But seriously, ofc its way too early for him to do something in the Giro. Its his first GT, he hasn't prepped for it, his high climbing is suspect, his 22 years old..

Wouldn't be surprised if he could top-10 a GT a few times or even a bit better, but come on.
I may or may not have exaggerated.
 
So is he the next Pogacar? He is so strong I think if he went for the GC in a grand tour there's no telling where he might end up.

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What a fine rider this young Irishman is.
Are you trolling the Brits?

Just hopefully not UAE, Jumbo, Ineos. Even though the pay would be best there. He is too good to be in a train working for others.
I'm not even sure he would be good for being in a train. He's short and slim. There are probably cheaper riders who would fit that role better.
I can only hope he himself wouldn't waste his potential like that either.
 

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