Bernal vs. Pogacar vs. Evenepoel

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Dnno, Vingegaard looked very strong in this Tour.
Easily beat Carapaz for 2nd, climbed with Pogi in the Pyrenees and had some amazing TT performances. We shouldn't forget Vingegaard lost almost a minute because he had to bring back Roglic while Van Aert was doing absolutely nothing in the main bunch.
Maybe I'm just overrating how good Carapaz is and perhaps Pogacar was just riding at 50% in the 2nd part of the Tour but to me, Vingegaard looked like atleast the 4th best GT rider there currently is.
 
There's much different scenarios in gt than just straight fight in uphill finish or tt. It's a chess on two wheels. I think Pogi still got his win bit easy. Maybe Vingo too. There will be harder editions for them in the future, I'm sure. In Tour and Giro at least.
 
There's much different scenarios in gt than just straight fight in uphill finish or tt. It's a chess on two wheels. I think Pogi still got his win bit easy. Maybe Vingo too. There will be harder editions for them in the future, I'm sure. In Tour and Giro at least.
Obviously each race is different and there are many scenarios. Pogi has 15+ more GT starts in him but nobody says he will win them all.
 
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Bernal is not top-3 anymore, IMO. Vingegaard >> Bernal.

Bernal may have won the Giro, but only beat Caruso by a pretty small margin. Bernal had the 2 best doms in the race, too -- Martinez and Castroviejo. Martinez (could have) dropped him in several mountain stages, too.

Imagine if Caruso had those two super doms racing for him instead...

Yes, Bernal raced pretty aggressively in the first part of the race, but never opened up a huge gap over Caruso.

It just wasn't an impressive enough GT win to put him up there with Vingegaard, who didn't lose a lot of time to Pogacar in weeks 2 & 3.

Same for Carapaz, pretty much, except for the ITT

I seriously doubt that a rider that got dropped by S. Yates, Martinez, Almeida and Caruso could have stayed with Pogacar, Vingegaard and Carapaz. Or Roglic. (Although I suspect that Almeida could be up there with the best very soon)


Bernal may (or may not) face the 2 best GT specialists in the Vuelta. Both of them with a less than ideal prep, to put it mildly. If he's competitive or even wins that won't mean he's top-3, either. The 5th best GC rider in the world could easily win the GC, IMO.

We won't know until Bernal targets the Tour again (which may be never). He's a clever guy. He actually has a shot at the 2021 Vuelta. He could complete his GT collection and bounce.
Hell, Bernal could even win the Tour while not being top-3 anymore, Vignegaard's 2nd place and 5 min gap still might be more impressive. I mean it's not easy to beat all those guys: O'Connor, Kelderman, Mas, Lutsenko, G.Martin, Bilbao...
 
Bernal is not top-3 anymore, IMO. Vingegaard >> Bernal.

Bernal may have won the Giro, but only beat Caruso by a pretty small margin. Bernal had the 2 best doms in the race, too -- Martinez and Castroviejo. Martinez (could have) dropped him in several mountain stages, too.

Imagine if Caruso had those two super doms racing for him instead...

Yes, Bernal raced pretty aggressively in the first part of the race, but never opened up a huge gap over Caruso.

It just wasn't an impressive enough GT win to put him up there with Vingegaard, who didn't lose a lot of time to Pogacar in weeks 2 & 3.

Same for Carapaz, pretty much, except for the ITT

I seriously doubt that a rider that got dropped by S. Yates, Martinez, Almeida and Caruso could have stayed with Pogacar, Vingegaard and Carapaz. Or Roglic. (Although I suspect that Almeida could be up there with the best very soon)


Bernal may (or may not) face the 2 best GT specialists in the Vuelta. Both of them with a less than ideal prep, to put it mildly. If he's competitive or even wins that won't mean he's top-3, either. The 5th best GC rider in the world could easily win the GC, IMO.

We won't know until Bernal targets the Tour again (which may be never). He's a clever guy. He actually has a shot at the 2021 Vuelta. He could complete his GT collection and bounce.
Winner of Coppi e Bartali is ahead of winner of Giro d’Italia, who also won Tour de France 2 years ago?

On what possible UCI ranking system could this be true?
 
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but it feels very premature to call him a top 3 GC rider after finishing 2nd over 5 mins down in a Tour where a lot of GC riders crashed out of contention in the first week.
So is Carapaz a top 3 GC rider? Won the Giro beating Roglic. Yet Carapaz couldn’t beat Vingegaard.

Vingegaard’s TT and climbing was superb. Not bad for a kid called up at late notice when Roglic had his problems.
 
So is Carapaz a top 3 GC rider? Won the Giro beating Roglic. Yet Carapaz couldn’t beat Vingegaard.

Vingegaard’s TT and climbing was superb. Not bad for a kid called up at late notice when Roglic had his problems.
Not sure how late the notice was or how different his training regime would have been. Already in Itzulia they were 1st & 2nd. I would put Vinnie in the top 4 ahead of Carappie. He and Rogla may well have to duke it out among themselves in the future races, knowing TJV.
 
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So is Carapaz a top 3 GC rider? Won the Giro beating Roglic. Yet Carapaz couldn’t beat Vingegaard.

Vingegaard’s TT and climbing was superb. Not bad for a kid called up at late notice when Roglic had his problems.
The difference is consistency.
Carapaz has podiumed every GT he has ridden for GC in the last 3 years. Vingegaard has shown a very high level here but we need some more evidence. Also, this was a TDF with 60 km of ITT and very weak mountain stages.
 
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The difference is consistency.
Carapaz has podiumed every GT he has ridden for GC in the last 3 years. Vingegaard has shown a very high level here but we need some more evidence. Also, this was a TDF with 60 km of ITT and very weak mountain stages.
Isn’t it weird how 60 km of ITT is considered a lot these days? But to stick to the point - the difference is not consistency but career length. There’s no indication Vingegaard is any less consistent than Carapaz. There is, however, lack of data…
 
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Isn’t it weird how 60 km of ITT is considered a lot these days? But to stick to the point - the difference is not consistency but career length. There’s no indication Vingegaard is any less consistent than Carapaz. There is, however, lack of data…
Back in 2008, the tour was considered to have been very light on TTs. They only had a 29km TT and a 55 km TT. 84km was considered light in the very recent future
 
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Carapaz=Nibali yeah I went there
I like it.
Carapaz career trajectory as a GT contender is very similar to Nibali's. First win at 25/26 (considered a fluke by some), achieved podiums in all GTs a couple of years later, better in GTs than in one week stage races, always very consistent when targeting GC, opportunistic.

Of course Nibali was a better TTer in his peak years and actually dominated a couple of GTs (which I doubt Carapaz will be able to do), but I think the comparison makes sense.
 
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