If those 3 all aim for the Tour I would pretty much blindly go Giro/Vuelta even if I am Miguel Angel Lopez and the Giro has 80km of ITTing.
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There were hints from Bernal he is doing the Tour next year. Pogačar as a defending champion likely doesn't have a real choice regarding not to compete. Roglič likely doesn't have a real choice either as JV wants the Tour title and likely they know that without Roglič the chances are slim for the next couple of years.
Evenepoel could i guess try to capitalise on that (doing Giro). That is if he is a genuine GT contender. Currently we don't' know that.
You think Vingegaard could be a one hit wonder? I'd put him firmly in third place, seeing as he dropped everyone including Pogacar on Ventoux and was the best TTer out of the GC guys overall.It's very hard to rate the GT field below Roglic and Pogacar right now tbh. Lot of inconsistency, crashing out, etc
Bernal is probably up with those 2 climbing wise on his day but other than that I dunno. I think the gap between Roglic-Pogacar and the 3rd best rider could easily be bigger than the gap between the 3rd best GT rider and the 10th best GT rider.
Currently I would just leave Evenepoel unranked as a GT rider cause there's insufficient information.
I have Vingegaard as 4th best tbh. I think putting him above the Giro winner and Tour winner of 2 years ago based on a single GT is a bit much for now.You think Vingegaard could be a one hit wonder? I'd put him firmly in third place, seeing as he dropped everyone including Pogacar on Ventoux and was the best TTer out of the GC guys overall.
Though it's a bit concerning that he has done zilch after San Sebastian.
You think Vingegaard could be a one hit wonder? I'd put him firmly in third place, seeing as he dropped everyone including Pogacar on Ventoux and was the best TTer out of the GC guys overall.
Though it's a bit concerning that he has done zilch after San Sebastian. His base level must be really low ...unless something else is going on.
If all the best riders targeted the Tour (you can expand it to any probable GT route) next year, on average who do you think would do best? That's the framework I use to rank riders: it's not based on merits of the past, but projections about the future.Races Bernal has won at age 24 (among others): Tour, Giro, Paris-Nice, Suisse, l'Avenir.
And you rate him below Vingegaard? Tough.
I know you'll say low level, back problems and so on, but still. Looks very strange.
It may look that way, but most talented riders hit it big when they're a bit older. Bernal, Pogacar and Evenepoel are still the exceptions to the rule.Races Bernal has won at age 24 (among others): Tour, Giro, Paris-Nice, Suisse, l'Avenir.
And you rate him below Vingegaard? Tough.
I know you'll say low level, back problems and so on, but still. Looks very strange.
You think Vingegaard could be a one hit wonder? I'd put him firmly in third place, seeing as he dropped everyone including Pogacar on Ventoux and was the best TTer out of the GC guys overall.
Though it's a bit concerning that he has done zilch after San Sebastian.
Does Pogacar actually have a single clear weakness?Pogacar has very few clear weaknesses and is as rounded a GC rider as we have had since maybe Hinault
Does Pogacar actually have a single clear weakness?
The guy seems unbreakable.
I do think the average level he displayed in the 2021 Tour could be considered a minor weakness. According to the team he didn't quite match his 2020 values. Although it was in response to Clinic-related questions, I don't think it's entirely out of the question that this could be the case.Pogacar is strictly limited to a max of 2 legendary rides per GT.
If all the best riders targeted the Tour (you can expand it to any probable GT route) next year, on average who do you think would do best? That's the framework I use to rank riders: it's not based on merits of the past, but projections about the future.
It's a simplification (e.g. when it comes to leadership and support) and there's a lot of uncertainty, but I think Vingegaard may be slightly more likely to replicate this year's performance next year in the Tour than Bernal is to perform overall at a similar level. I think it's fair to have them as equals for now.
Remember he was supposed to slow down in like May 2020? I think he hits top shape really easily and has to take care not to peak too early. I think he peaked in the first week of the Tour this year and that's also why he was slightly worse in the third week and why he was so tired after the Olympics and didn't do the Vuelta.I do think the average level he displayed in the 2021 Tour could be considered a minor weakness. According to the team he didn't quite match his 2020 values. Although it was in response to Clinic-related questions, I don't think it's entirely out of the question that this could be the case.
Although I was more than skeptical at first about Roglic' chances to beat him, now I'm not so sure. The level Pogacar displayed on the Ventoux, in the Pyrenees (2 wins, but not uber dominant ones) and in the final TT was a bit less than expected.
Maybe he was asked to dial it down a bit, but I'm not quite sure that was the case.
He was caught out in the crosswinds in the 2020 Tour though we don't have a big enough sample size to know whether this is a true weakness or just one bad piece of positioning and echelon skill.Does Pogacar actually have a single clear weakness?
The guy seems unbreakable.
He was caught out in the crosswinds in the 2020 Tour though we don't have a big enough sample size to know whether this is a true weakness or just one bad piece of positioning and echelon skill.
ah so that is his weakness then - defective equipment!He was on his way back to the peloton because of a puncture.
Maybe a route with high altitude + some sterrato + some crosswind stages + no time trials.I dont think that exist even in theory TDF route where Bernal can beat Pog or Rog.
I really like him but his TDF win was the result of a bit worse competition that year and against the same field he would win again. If I was Bernal I would avoid the Tour, nothing to gain there.
I think he would be strongly up against it but if you don't enter you cant win. Crashes and illness can easily strike so when you are 3rd best it only needs a few things to go your way and you are right in the mix.I dont think that exist even in theory TDF route where Bernal can beat Pog or Rog.
I really like him but his TDF win was the result of a bit worse competition that year and against the same field he would win again. If I was Bernal I would avoid the Tour, nothing to gain there.