Waterloo Sunrise said:
Do you never worry that you are discounting variables which are massively influential in the end result, just because you can't measure them, in favour of ones which you could measure, but don't actually have data for in any case?
No I don't worry about that as I don't make any claims... As I said it was my opinion.
I am happy to use the evidence of my eyes, and the height and weight of riders, to consider aerodynamics very likely a very big factor. It would be bizarre for a rider who weights 20% less to be achieving the same wattage, and accruing no aero benefit.
Perhaps you misunderstood... I certainly don't doubt he has a CX advantage, but I'm simply not completely convinced it's so incredibly big, especially if we consider the speeds he achieves (Yes, I think he reaches the highest speeds). I think you are not understanding my position... I certainly think he's the fastest (note I said I expect him to smash Cippo's record, it's just that he hasn't yet).
The problems I see are:
1. With all the churning, how much of a CX advantage is there? he keeps his haed low, but the other thread showed that he's not unique, in fact it's something they all do (but I'd say Cav goes lowest-stretched, by eyeball).
2. The weight factor seems of. AFAIK we look at about ±12% (70 vs 78kg) if we look at Cav vs. Cipo
3. Considering his weight loss is pretty targeted, I doubt a 12% weight loss translates in a 12% wattage loss in the sprint.
4. Lastly, considering Airresistance goes up logarithmically and I think he reaches the highest speeds I think he pushes top notch wattages.
This is not a contention for me. If Cav has a significant lower wattage I believe it, I'm simply not sure. I think he has worldclass wattage, but you might very well be right
One thing: I'm not going to bet either way
