I'm not looking forward to this EU referendum. It hasn't been particularly pleasant with both sides using terrorist attacks for political motive and then blaming each other for doing exactly that. With the debates coming up, I do not expect it to get any better. It will be close, very close. Closer than last year's Scottish referendum. Right now a balance of poll show 50-50.
It's really interesting how party alliances mean so little in this election. If we take last year's GE, we see the Tories with 37% of the vote, Labour with 30%, UKIP with 13%,Liberals with 8%, SNP with 5 and Greens with 4%. All other parties were under 1, so no point including them. Liberals and Greens I expect all to go to Remain. Most of Labour will go to Remain, say 90% on a good day or 75% on a bad (from a Remain campaigner's PoV). SNP supporters will on the whole vote to stay, with 90-95% or so I imagine voting that way. UKIP will, unsurprisingly, all vote to Leave.
Here is where it is interesting: the Conservatives. The Cabinet is split, 7 members actively campaigning out, including Cameron's enemy IDS and Cameron's ally Gove. Perhaps most notably it includes BoJo, more on him later. Among the MPs, they are pretty evenly split, 160-130, with 30 or so undeclared. This leads you to imagine that among the grassroots, it is a similar story. No. In
this article it shows that out of 72 councils contacted, 70 reported a Leave majority and 2 a Remain. Others didn't want to do a poll, and only 17 guessed a majority for Remain and half a dozen 50/50, which was what was expected. This shows a monumental split among the Tory party, akin to the PLP and grassroots Labour, and worse.
Estimates say Tory voters are split roughly 70/30, or 80/20 in some Conservative Home online polls. Compare this to the 60/40 split among MPs, or 75/25 among Cabinet members. This vote will be very hard to tell. The majority of grassroot Tories have had enough of Cameron and Osborne, only the staunchest Times/Telegraph readers remain, and most of the Telegraph want to Leave too. This represents a larger, potentially fatal wound for Osborne if he runs in 2020. Even if he wins the primary, many Tory voters will flock to UKIP (as we will probably have voted to Remain if Osborne has won) and because, of the system in the UK split the right-wing vote in many key constituencies, allowing an 'unelectable' and 'worthless' and 'inexistent' and 'inept' Labour to come into power. These adjectives only apply if you are Nick Cohen, the insufferable t*at who rites columns in the Observer, and gets hated on and corrected by most readers.
Which brings us on to the media in this debate. The Guardian, FT, Times, Mirror and i are campaigning actively to Remain. A spread of left and centre-right (right if you consider the Times as what it has become right-wing, but I'll give them centre-right as they supported Blair 3 times, who was only centre), as is mirrored in the people and some of the MPs. The Daily Mail, Telegraph, Sun and Express are all actively campaigning to Leave. A concentration of right to extreme-right (Express/Daily Mail at times, i.e when Hopkins writes). Readership-wise, Leave wins. The Sun and Mail are the most read newspapers in the UK. Admittedly, the Sun and Telegraph editorial are more split than the other two. The Sun has gone from supporting Blair 3 times to a right wing hate-spewing newspapers like the Daily Mail, while before it was just tits really, but that is another matter. The BBC, usually so neutral, has shown support for Remain.
Frankie Boyle has noted "we are having a referendum on the EU jut to decide who is the leader of the Tory Party". This is an ongoing side-show; rather, the main show at times. If Remain wins 55/45 then Cameron stays, buoyantly. If Remain win by very little, then it is in the balance. I imagine he'll stay. If Leave win by little, then he'll do all he can to stay, but may have to end up leaving. If Leave wins 55/45, then 'Dodgy Dave' will be forced to resign, and Boris Johnson take over.
Johnson came out in mid-Febraury saying that he wanted to leave the EU. This was a solely ambition-fuelled move. He truly wishes to Remain, but he knows that if he comes out as being against, then whatever happens at the referendum he most likely will wrap up the Tory leadership election. Gideon and May have both come out as wanting to stay. He is the only one.
The Tory leadership sideshow is perhaps more interesting than the referendum itself, at times. For me at least, it is fun to watch them implode.