Re:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yanis-varoufakis-greece-greatest-political-memoir
Brullnux said:"Britain’s negotiating position in Europe has been misrepresented in the continental press."
The most important quote from May's 'declaration of war' with the EU. Is it the continental press who have misrepresented our negotiating position, or you yourself? I'd love to know from a continental persepective, what people think of May and her posturing, and in general if they think the UK has any actual standing in these negotiations. My perspective is not completely one-sided, as I was not born in Britain so feel less of the inherent jingoism that others may feel (the 'they need us more than we need them' idea) so like to think I can look at it from a fairly objective position (not the EU, but how the negotiations will go). I also keep an eye on some European newspapers to gather their point of view.
In my opinion, May has negligible power in the talks. We have seen many people try to negotiate with the EU and Brussels and fail, on topics which the EU had more of a reason to be respecting of. Varoufakis and Greece, most notably. The idea of the mandate is negated by the 27 other mandates which she will be negotiating with. Which brings me onto another point: just sheer size. The EU is far bigger than the UK and has a much bigger GDP. Trade wise, they export less %-wise than we do: 42-44% vs 16%. If that cuts by half, the UK loses over a fifth of their exports. The EU loses a twelth.
Then comes the more political side. The EU, politically, cannot give the UK a good deal. They definitely will not allow one which is mor favourable than a current inside-the-EU agreement. Therefore, I think Juncker and Merkel had a hierarchy of deals. Plan A: a Norway style agreement. Trade is still there and so is freedom of movement; the cost is less but the UK has no say in the laws they are forced to abide by and there is no possibility of 3rd party deals. The EU economy is still as strong, and the UK gains very little and loses a bit. Plan B: Harsh, harsh deal which hurts the UK. This may hurt the EU, but it will (probably) put off some other countries from leaving the EU. It will also anger some people in europe, but I think the EU thinks it a net-positive arrangement. Since May has ruled out plan a, it is looking very much like plan b. Especially with the antagonisation that has gone on recently, I do not think May will have much say on what the final trade deal is. Juncker and co will give her one, and she will either accept it, and face humiliation (although the servile and sycophantic media will see it as a victory), or leave without a deal and stick to her promise. Mind you, there is more chance of the talks falling through than anything else. Then comes the issue of the bill etc. May is criminally underestimating how hard this will be.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yanis-varoufakis-greece-greatest-political-memoir