British politics

[aphronesis]

Awwww, that’s sweet. People keep talking about leaders as if they’re where the action is.

 

[python]

@index,
have you heard of the boris johnson ways in the british politics ? he actually almost got the wheel, and may still get one going forward. an idiot in every way trump is with the similar showmanship and values.

theresa does have the core and she fights as any politician with great ego would, but she's hardly a heroine compared to either demands of the moment nor the brexit challenges in general...she's, simply put, not a quitter. a complement. and btw, props for ignoring the lowly baiting.

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...weeks-michael-gove-import-dover-a8638976.html

The iconic chocolate nougat Mars bar could face extinction in the UK should the country leave the UK without a Brexit deal, secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs Michael Gove has been warned.

Last year, it was revealed that all confectionery imports in the UK, including Mars bars, would drastically increase in price as a consequence of a hard Brexit.

However, the situation could be even more dire than previously thought, with representatives from the food industry telling Mr Gove that a no-deal Brexit may result in the country running out of Mars bars in a matter of weeks.

OMG! :surprised: Who knew it could be so bad?

 

[King Boonen]

I’m not a fan of Brexit—if I were British, I definitely would have voted to remain—but watching the hearings, I’ve really come to admire Theresa May. She’s such a refreshing contrast to our own idiot leader. She isn’t crazy or paranoid or narcissistic, doesn’t insult her critics, doesn’t complain that the media are unfair, doesn’t tell constant lies or reverse her positions every minute. Trump supporters I know claim he has balls, but May has far more balls than he does. Everything is falling apart around her, her own cabinet and party are abandoning her, but she continues to fight for the plan, to answer every critic as best as she can. The ship may be going down, but she’s going down with it.

Never forget:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/19/theresa-may-was-not-opposed-to-go-home-vans-official-accounts-suggest

 

[Robert5091]

The people that brought you Brexit, now team up with ex-English Defence League leader
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46308160

UKIP leader Gerard Batten has defended his decision to hire Tommy Robinson as an adviser and says he had saved the party "from oblivion".

His predecessor Nigel Farage criticised UKIP's association with the ex-English Defence League leader and said there should be a vote of no confidence in Mr Batten.

Mr Batten said many people respected Mr Robinson's "stand on things".

And he claimed Mr Farage had shown "0% interest" in UKIP since "walking away".

Mr Batten, who is the fourth person to lead UKIP since Mr Farage quit in the wake of the 2016 EU referendum, said he believed he would see off any challenge to his leadership.

Mr Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, will advise him on rape gangs and prison reform.
...
He told BBC News that Tommy Robinson was a "high profile" figure who had been "persecuted by the state because of his views".

"I think he's a good person to have on side, a lot of people respect his stand on things and his courage."

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...casts-strike-blow-to-theresa-mays-brexit-deal

Theresa May’s campaign to sell her Brexit deal to sceptical MPs and a divided country ran into further difficulties when a string of official economic forecasts concluded that the UK would be better off remaining in the European Union.

The Bank of England said on Wednesday that GDP would have been at least 1% higher in five years’ time if the UK had voted to remain, while an official Whitehall analysis concluded that in all Brexit scenarios, including May’s final deal, the UK would be worse off.

It's a bit like Trump & climate change ... mind you, where's all this money Farage promised the voters would appear when the UK left the EU?

 

[King Boonen]

Waiting on the official ruling but it seems that the UK can cancel Brexit without needing to ask the other 27 member states. This is a case that Teresa May's Government tried to block going to the ECJ. Twice.

 

[python]

cancelling the brexit by the british side alone, unless i am not informed fully, would essentially mean reversing the all-national vote to exit the eu. a very ticklish idea...

huge numbers, if presently not the slight, yet significant majority, both in the legislative branch and the voting mass, desire the separation/exit/divorce from the eu . of course the formula of the divorce is widely debated, still and likely debated for a foreseeable future. at least until march 2019 when everything must conclude (unless extended by a mutual eu/british agreement.

therefore, talking about the brexit cancellation, imo, is an academic exercise. moreover, my understanding is that within the eu many nation-states will veto the idea of the brexit cancellation outright. it takes only one but i count several anti-british states.

all that said, the brexit NEVER made sense imo if one was a competent and informed citizen of the uk. but once a stupid idea was set forth, by a political yet democratic process it should be seen thru by a similarly political and democratic process. any shortcuts, imo will further undermine the british democracy. which has withstood some serious challenges recently.

 

[Robert5091]

The Westminster circus is under way - cue "Entry Of The Gladiators"
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46446694

Theresa May suffers three Brexit defeats in Commons

Theresa May has suffered three Brexit defeats in the Commons as she set out to sell her EU deal to sceptical MPs.

Ministers will be forced to publish the government's full legal advice on the deal after MPs found them in contempt of Parliament for issuing a summary.

And MPs backed calls for the Commons to have a direct say in what happens if her deal is rejected next Tuesday.

Mrs May said MPs had a duty to deliver on the 2016 Brexit vote and the deal on offer was an "honourable compromise".

Addressing the Commons at the start of a five-day debate on her proposed agreement, Mrs May said Brexit divisions had become "corrosive" to UK politics and the public believed the issue had "gone on long enough" and must be resolved.

MPs will decide whether to reject the terms of the UK's withdrawal and future relations with the EU on Tuesday 11 December.

and even Farage thinks Tommy Robinson is a step too far -
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46448299

Former leader Nigel Farage quits UKIP

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

cancelling the brexit by the british side alone, unless i am not informed fully, would essentially mean reversing the all-national vote to exit the eu. a very ticklish idea...

There is a case going through the ECJ at the moment. The advocate general has stated the opinion that the UK should be able to withdraw from Article 50 without the consent of the other 27 members. The court doesn't have to follow this opinion, but that is usually what happens and it's hard to argue with the reasoning from the bits of text I've seen.

huge numbers, if presently not the slight, yet significant majority, both in the legislative branch and the voting mass, desire the separation/exit/divorce from the eu . of course the formula of the divorce is widely debated, still and likely debated for a foreseeable future. at least until march 2019 when everything must conclude (unless extended by a mutual eu/british agreement.

Are you talking about the EU or the UK? Any reference for these huge numbers?

therefore, talking about the brexit cancellation, imo, is an academic exercise. moreover, my understanding is that within the eu many nation-states will veto the idea of the brexit cancellation outright. it takes only one but i count several anti-british states.

See first part.

all that said, the brexit NEVER made sense imo if one was a competent and informed citizen of the uk. but once a stupid idea was set forth, by a political yet democratic process it should be seen thru by a similarly political and democratic process. any shortcuts, imo will further undermine the british democracy. which has withstood some serious challenges recently.

I won't rehash reasons why it would have been perfectly legitimate to ignore the public vote on Brexit. I'm unsure why, for example, another referendum (which would likely be required to withdraw from Article 50), would undermine democracy? Did democracy finish in 2016? We now have a much better idea of what Brexit actually means (many of us knew it would be an utter sh*t-show from the start but not everyone did), what options are available and what effect it is likely to have on the UK. It actually seems like the perfect opportunity to ask the electorate what they want in a proper, binding referendum.

 

[Robert5091]

In years to come, Brexit will be looked at as possibly the greatest sucess of hybrid warfare. (we still await Mueller's report)

 

[King Boonen]

I hope people who admire May are paying close attention:

https://twitter.com/MikeSegalov/status/1070293664474243073

 

[Robert5091]

Interesting conumdrum - win the vote, then get kicked out of office, lose the vote, stay in office. Mrs May might be happier losing the vote, it seems.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...it-mps-with-irish-backstop-parliamentary-lock

...the DUP is so set against May’s Brexit plan that if it passed the Commons, the party would rescind its pledge to back her in any vote of confidence, placing the government in peril. If her deal falls they would support her.

 

[Robert5091]

Party like's it ... 1999?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...id-worst-day-since-brexit?srnd=premium-europe

The FTSE 100 Index on Wednesday closed below the level seen at the end of 1999, and extended its declines on Thursday. Shares today fell as much as 2.7 percent, the worst drop on a closing basis since June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit referendum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46463326

No 10 has said the Commons vote will go ahead on Tuesday, despite claims it could be delayed to avoid defeat.

And in another development, the European Court of Justice said it would deliver a ruling on Monday on whether the UK could unilaterally cancel Brexit by reversing Article 50 - the day before the MPs' crunch vote.

 

[Robert5091]

Corbyn has his say in The Guardian -
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...yn-general-election-brexit-labour-theresa-may

The stakes could not be higher next week. If the prime minister’s deal is defeated, the government will have lost its majority on the most important issue facing the country and lost its ability to govern. The best outcome in those circumstances would be to let the country decide on the way ahead and the best team to lead it. That means a general election.

In the past, a defeat of such seriousness as May now faces would have meant an automatic election. But if under the current rules we cannot get an election, all options must be on the table. Those should include Labour’s alternative and, as our conference decided in September, the option of campaigning for a public vote to break the deadlock. Two years ago, people voted remain because they wanted an open, international relationship with Europe and a multicultural society. Many voted leave out of anger at the way the political class had left them behind, with crumbling infrastructure and low-paid, insecure jobs. Our job is to unite people with a plan that works for the whole country.

Given the decisions taken in parliament this week, it should now be easier to build support for an alternative plan to bring the country together. The government’s deal must not stand. In those circumstances parliament has shown it is ready to take control, and Labour will give the leadership the country needs.

 

[roundabout]

Re:

Party like's it ... 1999?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...id-worst-day-since-brexit?srnd=premium-europe

The FTSE 100 Index on Wednesday closed below the level seen at the end of 1999, and extended its declines on Thursday. Shares today fell as much as 2.7 percent, the worst drop on a closing basis since June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit referendum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46463326

No 10 has said the Commons vote will go ahead on Tuesday, despite claims it could be delayed to avoid defeat.

And in another development, the European Court of Justice said it would deliver a ruling on Monday on whether the UK could unilaterally cancel Brexit by reversing Article 50 - the day before the MPs' crunch vote.

I am going to make a guess that P/E ratios were through the roof in 1999 compared to now. Probably more tech companies back then vs banks and commodities now and that alone should drive the overall P/E down

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.thenation.com/article/britain-brexit-crisis-eu/

Indeed, the government’s own reports show that every version of leaving the EU harms the UK economy; the differences are only ones of degree. Such damage will hit hardest exactly the section of the population least able to afford it.

So who exactly gains by Brexit?

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...inute-by-minute-guide-to-u-k-parliament-votes

By Tuesday evening, Parliament will have been debating May’s Brexit deal for five days. Discussion is supposed to stop at 7 p.m. London time. Watch whether the minister winding up the debate for the government keeps speaking past then. In theory, that would mean the vote was aborted, though (speaker) Bercow might not allow that kind of get-out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...id-to-save-brexit-deal-despite-growing-mutiny

The prime minister is under intense pressure from aides and senior ministers to considering pulling the vote on Tuesday, a move Downing Street has emphatically denied will happen, though a final decision is unlikely to be made until the 11th hour.

Could be the world's biggest anti-climax

Edit- update https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...k-european-court-justice-latest-a8675541.html

UK can cancel Brexit by unilaterally revoking Article 50, European Court of Justice rules

The UK has the legal power to stop Brexit by unilaterally revoking Article 50, the EU's top court has ruled.

The ruling matches legal advice given to the court last week by its advocate general, who said as a sovereign country Britain could reverse its decision even at this late stage.

The legal decision is significant because means Britain could prevent a no-deal Brexit from happening if it wanted, even if Theresa May's deal is voted down by MPs next week.

A chance for Remain people?

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

https://www.thenation.com/article/britain-brexit-crisis-eu/

Indeed, the government’s own reports show that every version of leaving the EU harms the UK economy; the differences are only ones of degree. Such damage will hit hardest exactly the section of the population least able to afford it.

So who exactly gains by Brexit?

Well the "Masters of the Universe" in the City, want Brexit to make bets come good.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-make-big-bets-against-post-brexit-uk-economy

A pair of hedge funds owned by prominent Brexit supporters have made significant bets against companies exposed to the British consumer including big high street names.

Odey Asset Management, part-owned by Crispin Odey, and Marshall Wace, part-owned by Sir Paul Marshall, have declared short positions against consumer-exposed companies, including retailers, estate agents and banks, equivalent to £149m and £572m respectively – as rising political uncertainty threatens the economy.

The retail sector is facing particular scrutiny from short sellers, who in effect wager significant sums on certain shares falling in value. Uncertainty among consumers, with the Brexit process reaching a crunch point, comes at a time when retailers are already struggling to adjust to the move from physical shops to online.

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/10/theresa-may-brexit-plan-b-buy-more-time

Theresa May is to embark on a frantic round of European diplomacy in a final attempt to salvage her Brexit deal and her premiership after a chaotic day in which she pulled Tuesday’s scheduled meaningful vote in the face of overwhelming opposition.

The prime minister will meet the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Berlin on Tuesday to seek “further assurances” to ensure that the Northern Irish backstop would never come into force, although No 10 warned a rapid breakthrough was unlikely.

Downing Street said the vote could be delayed until January, reducing the time available to pass the necessary legislation to complete the UK’s departure – leading to growing concerns that a no-deal Brexit would result.

The biggest retreat since Dunkirk .. popcorn back in the pantry.

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46535739

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of confidence in her leadership later on Wednesday.

In a statement in Downing Street, Mrs May said: "I will contest that vote with everything I have got."

She said a new prime minister would have to scrap or extend Article 50, the mechanism taking Britain out of the EU on 29 March, "delaying or even stopping Brexit".

Conservative MPs will vote from 18:00 GMT to 20:00 GMT.

A result is expected an hour or so later.

Mrs May said changing Conservative leader would "put our country's future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it".

Popcorn ready?

 

[King Boonen]

We're not going to be able to afford all the popcorn we need at this rate...

 

[Robert5091]

Question is. if they kick out May. who'll get the job? Boris?!

 

[King Boonen]

No-one has a clue. Apparently Dominic Raab, the last person in charge of negotiating the deal that everyone hates, is favourite if she goes. I don't even know how that works...

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I think it is unlikely she will get kicked out tonight, but also that she will still be there by summer 2020. Her best way of getting through today is to promise her "colleagues" that she will be gone long before the next election.