Cadel Evans Discussion Thread

[86TDFWinner]

Harsh on Evans to say he's fallen off the wagon like Wiggins as their wins were certainly under different circumstances.
One is aging after toppling the likes of schleck(s), contador, etc... while the other just had a very suitable parcours and not much competition at the same time. Otherwise Mr Mod has been all over the place in TdF results...

Anyway, I think this decision to look at other GTs for Evans is long overdue - he should have more than 1 GT to his name by now. Hell, if Menchov can have more than Evans, something's wrong

*edited by mod*

Good luck in your eventual retirement Cadel, there's no way he's winning the TDF again, again MO.

 

[karlboss]

But evans was MTBing successfully beforehand/ had a breakout at the 02 Giro.

Two points on that, do you think he was physically at his best MTB or 2002 Giro? I'd say he was still improving. If you argue that he was at his best, then he's already on borrowed time.

 

[The Hitch]

Harsh on Evans to say he's fallen off the wagon like Wiggins as their wins were certainly under different circumstances.
One is aging after toppling the likes of schleck(s), contador, etc... while the other just had a very suitable parcours and not much competition at the same time. Otherwise Mr Mod has been all over the place in TdF results...

Anyway, I think this decision to look at other GTs for Evans is long overdue - he should have more than 1 GT to his name by now. Hell, if Menchov can have more than Evans, something's wrong

He destroyed Nibali - the same Nibali who has shorter odds than Contador and way shorter odds than Schleck for next years Tour, by 6 minutes.

He outclimbed him, he out ttd him, dont delude yourself, Wiggins 2012 could have podiumed any gt of the 2000's and 90's.

 

[The Hitch]

Evans was 7th in last years Tour and 3rd in this years Giro. Isn't that normal for a guy who is 36?

That giro 3rd place is not an indicator of performance. The whole race was cancelled. Its like saying Mollema and ten Dam are tdf podium riders because they were on the podium early in the race.

 

[Netserk]

He destroyed Nibali - the same Nibali who has shorter odds than Contador and way shorter odds than Schleck for next years Tour, by 6 minutes.

He outclimbed him, he out ttd him, dont delude yourself, Wiggins 2012 could have podiumed any gt of the 2000's and 90's.

No he didn't.

 

[The Hitch]

yes he did. He beat him on PDBF. He beat him on Peyresoudes. Nibali never took time on Wiggins on a single stage.

 

[greenedge]

That giro 3rd place is not an indicator of performance. The whole race was cancelled. Its like saying Mollema and ten Dam are tdf podium riders because they were on the podium early in the race.

True but Betancur could have had a bad day on one of those cancelled days/ he had so many bonus seconds.

Also he did have that mechanical, where Betancur and Uran pulled away from him.

 

[movingtarget]

True but Betancur could have had a bad day on one of those cancelled days/ he had so many bonus seconds.

Also he did have that mechanical, where Betancur and Uran pulled away from him.

It's funny that in the "what if" categories Evans has been noted by many as the lucky one mainly on the strength of one bad stage, the second TT where he lost most of his time. Even on the last stage he was not far behind apart from Nibali. I guess we will never know for sure. It's like saying Wiggins would have podiumed if he had not got sick. Uran could have had a bad day also. Who knows. Evans rode his usual smart race and surprised many after a bad start to the year. Evans admitted after the race that the short TTs after harder for him now and his first TT was a good one. Some riders probably coped with the weather better too. Scarponi suffered worse than some and Evans usually does well in the cold but the Giro weather was extreme. I thought the Colombians would have suffered more but they handled it well.

 

[Red Rick]

It's funny that in the "what if" categories Evans has been noted by many as the lucky one mainly on the strength of one bad stage, the second TT where he lost most of his time. Even on the last stage he was not far behind apart from Nibali. I guess we will never know for sure. It's like saying Wiggins would have podiumed if he had not got sick. Uran could have had a bad day also. Who knows. Evans rode his usual smart race and surprised many after a bad start to the year. Evans admitted after the race that the short TTs after harder for him now and his first TT was a good one. Some riders probably coped with the weather better too. Scarponi suffered worse than some and Evans usually does well in the cold but the Giro weather was extreme. I thought the Colombians would have suffered more but they handled it well.

He lost something like 1'44 in 3km on Nibali, he still lost more than a minute to Uran, against whom he had to defend 2nd place

 

[Captain_Obvious]

 

[movingtarget]

He lost something like 1'44 in 3km on Nibali, he still lost more than a minute to Uran, against whom he had to defend 2nd place

I said apart from Nibali who won easily. Evans started gaining on Uran and then started going backwards again. The bike troubles are well documented, believe it or not, he did seem to be a in a massive gear and said after the race he could not change gears which prompted a semi hissy fit after the stage which makes me believe is was not BS. He possibly could have saved second place, maybe.

 

[The Hitch]

No way in hell could Evans get 2nd. If we take out bad luck then scarponi doesnt crash in the first week, doesnt lose that minute and Evans isn't in 2nd in the first place.

Anyway a 1 climb stage where only the last few k are raced is a tad different from supermountain stages of which the giro was supposed to have 3. A guy who was losing what Evans was in the mountains could not possibly podium a full grand tour.

 

[movingtarget]

No way in hell could Evans get 2nd. If we take out bad luck then scarponi doesnt crash in the first week, doesnt lose that minute and Evans isn't in 2nd in the first place.

Anyway a 1 climb stage where only the last few k are raced is a tad different from supermountain stages of which the giro was supposed to have 3. A guy who was losing what Evans was in the mountains could not possibly podium a full grand tour.

But there was also doubt about how well the others were going to go as well on the full stages except for Nibali who never really showed any weakness for the duration. Part of Evans success is staying out of trouble and he rarely crashes since early in his career anyway. It's not just luck when he has been doing it for so long. It seems weird to think that Evans will end his career with only one grand tour win. I think he was a better rider than his record will indicate. It's shame he was ill in 2012 even though I have no doubt he would not have beaten Wiggins anyway. I suppose the Vuelta in 2009 and the Tours in 2007 and 2008 were the big misses for Evans and he should have won at least one of them.

 

[Cookster15]

Time to bump this thread with Evans good ride in todays stage of the Giro Del Trentino and the big goal of the Giro d'Italia looming.

For the Giro of course Quintana and Rodriguez are stand out favourites with perhaps Uran the dark horse. But today shows Evans form is headed in the right direction to at least have a shot at 3rd step on the podium to round off his career on a high. Today the results suggest Evans out climbed fellow Giro contenders Pozzovivo, Aru, Scarponi and Basso.

But a 3 week Grand Tour for an aging veteran is a lot different to a 4 day race - even with lots of hills and the odd MTF. One bad day in the Giro and the podium is lost. My concern around Cadel is still his mediocre TT at Pais Vasco. Evans has not ridden a strong TT since the 2011 TDF. In 2011 he rode strong TTs through the season at Dauphine and Romandie. Is that due to father time catching up?

But we can only judge on what we see or read. And early indications at Trentino suggests Evans is in a good situation right now, is climbing well and this will also give confidence to his BMC team for the Giro. At least I hope for no snowstorms this year

 

[Elegant Degenerate]

My concern around Cadel is still his mediocre TT at Pais Vasco. Evans has not ridden a strong TT since the 2011 TDF.

Yep. This used to be his strength and was pretty pivotal in his overall game plan. Minimise losses in the mountains, then timetrial strongly for the win. It's pretty difficult seeing him out climb everyone for three weeks, when that was never really the plan.

Having said that, there seems to be a bit of pessimism regarding evans around here. I expect him to be thereabouts... and maybe a bit of a sentimental underdog. With a bit of luck you never know.

 

[Jspear]

Time to bump this thread with Evans good ride in todays stage of the Giro Del Trentino and the big goal of the Giro d'Italia looming.

For the Giro of course Quintana and Rodriguez are stand out favourites with perhaps Uran the dark horse. But today shows Evans form is headed in the right direction to at least have a shot at 3rd step on the podium to round off his career on a high. Today the results suggest Evans out climbed fellow Giro contenders Pozzovivo, Aru, Scarponi and Basso.

But a 3 week Grand Tour for an aging veteran is a lot different to a 4 day race - even with lots of hills and the odd MTF. One bad day in the Giro and the podium is lost. My concern around Cadel is still his mediocre TT at Pais Vasco. Evans has not ridden a strong TT since the 2011 TDF. In 2011 he rode strong TTs through the season at Dauphine and Romandie. Is that due to father time catching up?

But we can only judge on what we see or read. And early indications at Trentino suggests Evans is in a good situation right now, is climbing well and this will also give confidence to his BMC team for the Giro. At least I hope for no snowstorms this year

Yesterday he had a strong team tt. Does that count?
Also, even with his current form, he should tt better than Jrod and Quintana. If his form improves by the time the Giro is around, maybe he'll time trial even better than right now. I too would like to see him finish well. I'm going with Quintana for overall at the Giro)), but I'd like to see Cadel podium.

 

[darwin553]

Yesterday he had a strong team tt. Does that count?
Also, even with his current form, he should tt better than Jrod and Quintana. If his form improves by the time the Giro is around, maybe he'll time trial even better than right now. I too would like to see him finish well. I'm going with Quintana for overall at the Giro)), but I'd like to see Cadel podium.

If any rider deserves to have a strong team, it is cadel after years and years of having to do it on his own (practically speaking that is )

 

[movingtarget]

I guess another thing in Evans favour is that Uran, Quintana and Rodriguez have not showed much this season so far but of course a three week GT is another thing entirely. Evans still thinks he is capable of more and has not peaked yet. With his experience and Peiper's guidance he should be at his best in the Giro but whether that is good enough to podium, who knows. It could be his last GT so he should be motivated.

 

[Netserk]

I guess another thing in Evans favour is that Uran, Quintana and Rodriguez have not showed much this season so far but of course a three week GT is another thing entirely. Evans still thinks he is capable of more and has not peaked yet. With his experience and Peiper's guidance he should be at his best in the Giro but whether that is good enough to podium, who knows. It could be his last GT so he should be motivated.

Quintana has not showed much??? He won San Luis (destroying everybody), was 2nd in Tirreno behind super Bertie, and 5th in Catalunya being the 3rd strongest behind Purito and Bertie.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Quintana won San Luis and was 2nd in Tirreno and 5th in Catalunya. Yes he wasn't super yet but he has shown much already. With peak in giro..

I can't fathom Evans keeping up with 100% Quintana in Giro

 

[theyoungest]

Quintana won San Luis and was 2nd in Tirreno and 5th in Catalunya. Yes he wasn't super yet but he has shown much already. With peak in giro..

I can't fathom Evans keeping up with 100% Quintana in Giro

Quintana peaked for San Luis. It's not like he won that race in cr.p form, although maybe he could have. Since then he hasn't been that impressive, but he'll have to absolutely suck for Evans to have a chance to beat him.

 

[Arredondo]

I guess another thing in Evans favour is that Uran, Quintana and Rodriguez have not showed much this season so far but of course a three week GT is another thing entirely. Evans still thinks he is capable of more and has not peaked yet. With his experience and Peiper's guidance he should be at his best in the Giro but whether that is good enough to podium, who knows. It could be his last GT so he should be motivated.

Quintana and Purito have shown more than Evans this season.

Just what the others are saying above me

 

[Afrank]

Quintana peaked for San Luis. It's not like he won that race in cr.p form, although maybe he could have. Since then he hasn't been that impressive, but he'll have to absolutely suck for Evans to have a chance to beat him.

What makes you think that was his peak? IIRC his form was a little better than where he wanted it to be at that point, so he back off a little after it. But I don't think he was at his peak for it.

 

[Cookster15]

Quintana won San Luis and was 2nd in Tirreno and 5th in Catalunya. Yes he wasn't super yet but he has shown much already. With peak in giro.

I can't fathom Evans keeping up with 100% Quintana in Giro

Few fathomed what we saw in 2011 either - including me.

In last year's TDF Richie Porte twice put Quintana under pressure - on AX3 Domains and l'Alpe before waiting for Froome. I'd still put Evans in 2011 TDF form ahead of Porte 2013. Yes I know his age still casts doubt but in that case I will keep reminding you of Chris Horner - there are exceptions. With his suspect TTs too since 2011 I suspected Evans was in decline but what I am reading at the Trentino makes me wonder if he might have a bit more in the tank than we thought.

Remember Evans has had an optimal preparation this year unlike last year when he decided to do the Giro very late as a gamble to get form for the Tour. Then 2012 and early 2013 he was fighting the effects of a virus - or so we were lead to believe.

I've had trouble deciding if Evans woes since 2011 were due to the virus or simply he was getting old but didn't want to face up to it. Now based on what we are seeing at Trentino I think it is possible we may have been wrong - at least for now.

Anyhow I think we need to leave open the possibility Evans may surprise us and maybe even Quintana at the Giro. Then again Evans may have peaked too early. Time will tell but we don't know just yet.

 

[theyoungest]

What makes you think that was his peak? IIRC his form was a little better than where he wanted it to be at that point, so he back off a little after it. But I don't think he was at his peak for it.

I seem to remember reading it, and thinking: why would you peak for this race, you finished 2nd in the Tour for crying out loud.

Anyhow I think we need to leave open the possibility Evans may surprise us and maybe even Quintana at the Giro. Then again Evans may have peaked too early. Time will tell but we don't know just yet.

His awful Tirreno seems to be forgotten a bit too soon. I'd like Evans to really challenge at the Giro, but I don't believe it until I see it.