Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[blaxland]

Andy is not having a worse season in 2011 than he did in 2010. Contador couldn't drop him in the mountains last year, and has had a sub-optimal preparation as a result of the Giro.

So suggesting that Andy would drop big time to Contador carries with it assumptions that Andy is in significantly poorer form than 2010, with no real evidence to suggest so and/or Contador's form is significantly better than in 2010, when history says it's probably going to be worse, if anything.

But in 2010 Andy had a decent Classics campaign where he totally failed this year(Liege,Amstel,Fleche)....I guess we will have to wait and see..

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

But in 2010 Andy had a decent Classics campaign where he totally failed this year(Liege,Amstel,Fleche)....I guess we will have to wait and see..

lol what are you talking about.

2010
9th fleche
6th lbl
agr fail

2011
poium @ lbl
11th @ agr but almost pulled off the win.
fleche fail

he was hardly bad. If anything better. At least he looked like contending in two races this year.

also....

Toc: 8th this year
Toc: 24th last year.

Suisse:
14th last year
19th this year +climbers

 

[blaxland]

lol what are you talking about.

2010
9th fleche
6th lbl
agr fail

2011
poium @ lbl
11th @ agr but almost pulled off the win.
fleche fail

he was hardly bad. If anything better. At least he looked like contending in two races this year.

also....

Toc: 8th this year
Toc: 24th last year.

Suisse:
14th last year
19th this year +climbers

Fair enough but, I wouldnt say 1x podium over three races a success.Especially when your one of the favourites to win them.Toc and TDS dont count for much in my view.

 

[Dermie]

What's going to be the scenario in the mtns

In the past Cadel has been stuck without team members in the mountains
i.e. he's in a bunch of say 5 contenders, one attacks but of course he can't go cos he will just drag the other 3 up & so on.
Now we have the Shlecks, maybe Contador & maybe Sanchez (is he a contender & has he a team left).
Now Cadel has a team, will his climbing team be with him on the climbs when it is important. Can they counter the Shleck's moves or AC's teams moves.
Is there anyone else, it's a narrow field.
I feel that if Cadel is well represented in the mountains he will be much calmer which will make him a lot stronger & give him strength for better attacks when he wants to, not when he has no choices left.
Yes I am a Cuddles fan. But what are some reasonable scenarios not just that gimpy AC will flog the lot of them by 5 minutes!!!!!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Fair enough but, I wouldnt say 1x podium over three races a success.Especially when your one of the favourites to win them.Toc and TDS dont count for much in my view.

point is he was no worse then last year, actually better.
An dlast year's tour he wasn't losing minutes in the climbs

 

[Midnightfright]

In the past Cadel has been stuck without team members in the mountains
i.e. he's in a bunch of say 5 contenders, one attacks but of course he can't go cos he will just drag the other 3 up & so on.
Now we have the Shlecks, maybe Contador & maybe Sanchez (is he a contender & has he a team left).
Now Cadel has a team, will his climbing team be with him on the climbs when it is important. Can they counter the Shleck's moves or AC's teams moves.
Is there anyone else, it's a narrow field.
I feel that if Cadel is well represented in the mountains he will be much calmer which will make him a lot stronger & give him strength for better attacks when he wants to, not when he has no choices left.
Yes I am a Cuddles fan. But what are some reasonable scenarios not just that gimpy AC will flog the lot of them by 5 minutes!!!!!

I'm not trying to be argumentitve or name call but I don't think he will have any teammates left when attacks come as for following attacks unless its really far out I wouldnt even try following AS or Contador it will only put him in the red. What i expect to happen is for others to try and attack with little effect then for Frank and Andy to butter Bertie and Co up by alternating attacks. I actually wouldn't be shocked if a Frank gains good time on one stage just due to noone having the energy to follow.

 

[Dermie]

So are you one of the Cuddles has no chance in hell of winning brigade????

 

[Midnightfright]

Me? Hmmm well I think its highly unlikely. Not no chance , I just think hes a step below the other top tier climbers though. I have alot more faith in Cadel then his team in the mountains anyway. Also not everyone who doesnt think Cadel will win is against him. that's like ne calling u a fanboy just because u rate him.

 

[Dermie]

Me? Hmmm well I think its highly unlikely. Not no chance , I just think hes a step below the other top tier climbers though. I have alot more faith in Cadel then his team in the mountains anyway. Also not everyone who doesnt think Cadel will win is against him. that's like ne calling u a fanboy just because u rate him.

Well I am being patriotic, Its like being patriotic for the Australian football team at the world cup I want them to win but I know they never will in my life time or probably anyone else,s for that matter.
But on form over the past few years, its hard to say a guy who has got 2nd twice in Paris & has since won a worlds jersey (& wins races often enough) is so far off in a race that is currently going crazy while he is almost totally safe (so far). He does know how to get a long way up the podium.

 

[fatsprintking]

Well I am being patriotic, Its like being patriotic for the Australian football team at the world cup I want them to win but I know they never will in my life time or probably anyone else,s for that matter.
But on form over the past few years, its hard to say a guy who has got 2nd twice in Paris & has since won a worlds jersey (& wins races often enough) is so far off in a race that is currently going crazy while he is almost totally safe (so far). He does know how to get a long way up the podium.

Geez mate, go easy on the common sense - you do know that you have to be a opinionated know it all to post on here don't you? I am not sure I like you attitude of just stating in a calm fashion the facts about a bloke who is actually an unbelievable bike rider.

Why cant you be more like the bloke with the big claims about him loosing 10 min in the remaining climbs. Thats the type of guff we like here.

 

[karlboss]

Evans looks good, but i still can't see him strength v strength knocking off Schleck or Contador. Vs Schleck 4 MTF lets say Schleck wins by 20 seconds on each one, and then Evans needs to beat Schleck by one minute ten in the TT. Seems overly optimistic to me. If Contador finishes each MTF with Schleck 20 seconds up on evans, They'll be about even come the TT...again seems optimistic on behalf of Evans.

As you say there is always luck to come into it. So you never know.

 

[Cimber]

Go Evans! I will root for you now. You are our last hope against the dreaded Schlecks. The civilized world depend on you

 

[mickkk]

Well fate, circumstance, the moon, the stars, the brand of sauce, the type of bread and good riding have seen Evans have the best week of his pro cycling career IMHO. Its great to see him sound in mind and body.

You have to get used to his riding style, he never looks comfortable, not a classic style by any means, its just him. If you know this, it helps you relax when watching him.

Some huge stages to come, some no ones will get 30 minutes on the peleton. All evans has to do is follow the big boys and if some unknown wins it this year, I wouldnt be surprised and good luck to him.

If Evans has a bad day and loses 10 minutes to the yellow, its all over, not very good at fighting back is Evans.

Best chance ever at this stage all said and done, good luck to Evans.

 

[oncehadhair]

I have always thought evans didn't quite have the ability to win the race but the way things are at the moment this could be his best chance ever.

He looks a bit sharper this year, he's avoided all the mishaps, he's got a good lead on contador (who is not looking his best - yet), he seems to be riding like he's expecting to win and his comments after each day have been pretty neutral (which is like any other rider being purely positive).

All he has to do is stay out of trouble and finish with the other serious contendors (and there's fewer of those by the day, unfortunately) to win it from here.

I will probably have to eat my words in a few days.

 

[M Sport]

Well fate, circumstance, the moon, the stars, the brand of sauce, the type of bread and good riding have seen Evans have the best week of his pro cycling career IMHO. Its great to see him sound in mind and body.

<snip>

Best chance ever at this stage all said and done, good luck to Evans.

No, it's not his best week or even his best start, or best chance. That was in 2008.

After stage 9, 2008 he was in second place by 6 seconds, 1 Minute 28 seconds in front of the winner who eventually won by 58 seconds, he wore yellow in that race and he may noty even do that this time. That year Frank and Andy were nearly two minutes behind after stage 9.

This year 2min 26 back from the leader with Frank and Andy within 11 seconds and Contador at 1min 40 with more mountain top finishes to come than 2008.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If Contador doesn't get any better I sure hope Evans can somehow climb well enough to keep the Schlecks behind him.

One of the Schlecks winning the Tour would ruin my month of july

 

[dlwssonic]

If Contador doesn't get any better I sure hope Evans can somehow climb well enough to keep the Schlecks behind him.

One of the Schlecks winning the Tour would ruin my month of july

Lets all get behind evans and BMC then. It would be an absolute disaster if the schlecks dont win the tour now. they are still the huge favorites. Just hoping cadel can limit his losses in the mountains.

 

[Spaniard]

If Contador doesn't get any better I sure hope Evans can somehow climb well enough to keep the Schlecks behind him.

One of the Schlecks winning the Tour would ruin my month of july

If Contador is over in this tour i will become an aussie for the rest of the tour , unless Samu or Luisle make an impressive high mountains stages

 

[oncehadhair]

No, it's not his best week or even his best start, or best chance. That was in 2008.

After stage 9, 2008 he was in second place by 6 seconds, 1 Minute 28 seconds in front of the winner who eventually won by 58 seconds, he wore yellow in that race and he may noty even do that this time. That year Frank and Andy were nearly two minutes behind after stage 9.

This year 2min 26 back from the leader with Frank and Andy within 11 seconds and Contador at 1min 40 with more mountain top finishes to come than 2008.

What you mean to say is he has been in better position wrt time on some rivals before and that based on that, iyho, he had a better chance in 2008.

But it doesn't mean he was in a better position in 2008. There's a few other factors to consider.

This year his form is better (judging by his race finishes and the lack of a giro in his legs), he's been a world champion and carries with it the confidence that goes with it, he's racing better tactically, he has a deeper understanding of the abilities of his rivals and he's in a more supportive team.

So, all things considered, yes it probably is his best chance of winning.

edit: just listening to the replay of last nights stage and heard phil and paul say that had him pencilled in as favourite for this year. That's got to count against him.

 

[Cimber]

If Contador doesn't get any better I sure hope Evans can somehow climb well enough to keep the Schlecks behind him.

One of the Schlecks winning the Tour would ruin my month of july

I support this message.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If Contador doesn't get any better I sure hope Evans can somehow climb well enough to keep the Schlecks behind him.

One of the Schlecks winning the Tour would ruin my month of july

I don't like either

tho I generally never get results i like at le tour.

 

[movingtarget]

As usual most predictions are blown out of the water by the end of the first difficult mountain stage. Some riders tipped for big performances go backwards and others not considered do well. If Evans does not go on with it this year without any falls etc before Thursday, he has no excuses. I think another second or a third in Paris would drive him crazy. The real race starts on Thursday for contenders who who are still on their bikes.

 

[Midnightfright]

If Cadel doesn't pull it out the bag I could well see a Schleck 1 and 2.

 

[Kender]

It doesn't look like contador has it this tour. too many crashes and a hard giro have taken it's toll. I dont think he's going to do much dropping of cadel let alone make up time...

Kloden crashed hard and is considering abandonment as an option. that can't be good. Basso is still an unknown and may yet surprise, but he's already a minute down on Cadel. LLS might be able to maintain his position for quite a while and is a possible threat for podium. There are a couple of others with outside chances (roche, gesink) we'll know more on thursday

so that leaves the schlecks... it will come down to if Andy and Frank can get enough gap on Cadel to stay ahead in the TT.

It's now Cadel and Andy's tour to lose imo.

ps with so many GC riders out i think that helps Cadel more than anyone else. the pace might end up a little slower than it might have otherwise been with a full complement of guys fighting for the podium

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

It doesn't look like contador has it this tour. too many crashes and a hard giro have taken it's toll. I dont think he's going to do much dropping of cadel let alone make up time...

Kloden crashed hard and is considering abandonment as an option. that can't be good. Basso is still an unknown and may yet surprise, but he's already a minute down on Cadel. LLS might be able to maintain his position for quite a while and is a possible threat for podium. There are a couple of others with outside chances (roche, gesink) we'll know more on thursday

so that leaves the schlecks... it will come down to if Andy and Frank can get enough gap on Cadel to stay ahead in the TT.

It's now Cadel and Andy's tour to lose imo.

ps with so many GC riders out i think that helps Cadel more than anyone else. the pace might end up a little slower than it might have otherwise been with a full complement of guys fighting for the podium

thing is leopard were the likely suspects to crank it up on the mountains anyway. We saw a preview at suisse.

The pace will still be high. If basso and samu wanna win they should make it hard also.

just an insane tour really, the stars have really aligned for cadel, only for him to get owned bu schleck