Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

People shouldn't read too much into what has taken place. These finishes suit cadel more then any of the other GC men.

Just a point I wanna make...

On March 13th 2011, Stage 6 of Tirenno-Adriatico
Cadel won this stage, took the leader's jersey and showed form on these type of finishes all week.

\

This was a very similar finish to last night, and he won it in a similar fashion as he did last night. Was the most powerful rider sprinting to the front on a false flat of a group of men who struglled over the steep short ramp.

------------

On March 23rd 2011, Stage 3 of the Volta a Catalunya.
Cadel Evans then tackled a mountainious finish, he comes tenth on the stage.

He was almost a minute behind contador, lost half a minute to levi and scarponi and lost time to the likes of Uran, Martin, Horner and Basso.

------------

The tour climbs will be harder then this, the time splits bigger (considering the pace of le tour) and the level of competition higher.

Just 9 days passed in between the two different stages, and most improtantly the different terrains tackled which I provided examples of.
There are 8 days between Stage 4 of the tour de France, which Cadel won and Luz-Ardiden.
I am not suggesting he will totally suck in the mountains, but do not consider these stages as a guideline to the mountains.

Cadel has a poor record in the mountains, I suggest caution in getting your hopes up.

 

[richwagmn]

Come on, we all know SOMETHING will happen to Cadel. A flat tire, a crash, a teammate not where he needs to be... It's just a matter of time.

 

[AngusW]

That rider is Cadel, twice he was the favorite or should have had it in the bag and threw it away, looking up at the top step of the podium when he could have been there.

It's just not going to happen for him, if he was 27 or 28 he may have a chance in the future but even then I doubt it. Only one rider in the last 80 years has converted two second places into a future tour win (Joop Zoetemelk), statistically winners don't go through more than one second place and then win. Add to that the age factor and his temperament and really he is relying on something akin to a perfect storm to win, 4-5 riders will have to fall over from here for that to happen.

Some more related but ultimately meaningless statistics:

Only 3 tour winners have been runner-up twice before winning their first tour.
Another 5 have been on the podium twice before before winnning the tour for the first time including Lemond, Van Impe and Pantani.
There are three riders in this year's tour who have been runner-up in the tour twice without winning.

I'd like to see Evans win but I think his best chance at a win was in 2008. Nice to see him winning stages, though.

 

[Bennyl]

People shouldn't read too much into what has taken place. These finishes suit cadel more then any of the other GC men.

Just a point I wanna make...

On March 13th 2011, Stage 6 of Tirenno-Adriatico
Cadel won this stage, took the leader's jersey and showed form on these type of finishes all week.

\

This was a very similar finish to last night, and he won it in a similar fashion as he did last night. Was the most powerful rider sprinting to the front on a false flat of a group of men who struglled over the steep short ramp.

------------

On March 23rd 2011, Stage 3 of the Volta a Catalunya.
Cadel Evans then tackled a mountainious finish, he comes tenth on the stage.

He was almost a minute behind contador, lost half a minute to levi and scarponi and lost time to the likes of Uran, Martin, Horner and Basso.

------------

The tour climbs will be harder then this, the time splits bigger (considering the pace of le tour) and the level of competition higher.

Just 9 days passed in between the two different stages, and most improtantly the different terrains tackled which I provided examples of.
There are 8 days between Stage 4 of the tour de France, which Cadel won and Luz-Ardiden.
I am not suggesting he will totally suck in the mountains, but do not consider these stages as a guideline to the mountains.

Cadel has a poor record in the mountains, I suggest caution in getting your hopes up.

Although I agree that Cadel fans should caution getting their hopes up, i think you need to consider that Cadel was preparing for the Tour leading into this with little racing up till that mountain stage, let alone racing over mountains. He was extremely underdone. Sure he won T-A, but that was not climbing test... A few of these others however were preparing for the Giro and were a month and a bit out from that GT.

All were at different stages in preparation for different races.

 

[yourwelcome]

The Tour will be won by a pure climber on the 'right' program in just a few mountain stages, and unfortunately Cadel's maximum sustainable speed in those during the second and third week is just a few km/h slower than the fastest competition.

Whether that's because he keeps attempting to compete without 'preparing' the same way the competition does or natural limits, the results are the same.

I hope he knows enough to really enjoy the stage win and any time in the yellow jersey for what it is, like Hushovd seems to. It's a pretty cool achievement regardless of whether he wins in Paris.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Although I agree that Cadel fans should caution getting their hopes up, i think you need to consider that Cadel was preparing for the Tour leading into this with little racing up till that mountain stage, let alone racing over mountains. He was extremely underdone. Sure he won T-A, but that was not climbing test... A few of these others however were preparing for the Giro and were a month and a bit out from that GT.

All were at different stages in preparation for different races.

He may not have been at peak, but he wasn't too far off.
Although tour is the goal, he was close to peak in march.

Anyway, my point stands, he is naturally better at these finishes, so it is unsurprising that he does well. This does not however mean he will be any better in the mountains then previous years.

 

[Anonymous]

I like Cadel Evans and I hope he wins the Tour de France. There, I said it.

 

[Dermie]

I have been eternally disappointed but keep hoping (just as he keeps fighting) & this year he has all the right things going for him.
No Giro, maybe good, maybe not.
New team, & it appears to be dedicated to him. (they look good already)
Totally new training. (he looks fresh)
Seems to have a newer outlook since his world title win.
So what I am hoping is that if the best laid plans of Cadel & his backers go well I will be happy in Paris.

 

[mewmewmew13]

On the very first stage when I realized it was Cadel coming up and over the little rise in second place he looked like a wild animal enjoying the racing. I did not used to like him, but after the rainbow jersey and the way he has seemed to transform his racing style, I think he rides admirably.
Good luck to Cadel!

 

[Rip:30]

ABBCOS

anybody but contador or schleck.

they're just too heavily favored to win. and effeminate.

go Cadel. i like his weird irritable personality. MTBIKE POWER!

 

[Barracuda]

On the very first stage when I realized it was Cadel coming up and over the little rise in second place he looked like a wild animal enjoying the racing. I did not used to like him, but after the rainbow jersey and the way he has seemed to transform his racing style, I think he rides admirably.
Good luck to Cadel!

Well said ..... Bravo !!

 

[Barracuda]

ABBCOS

anybody but contador or schleck.

they're just too heavily favored to win. and effeminate.

go Cadel. i like his weird irritable personality. MTBIKE POWER!

Ha Ha .... quote of the day !!!!

 

[Martin318is]

Thanks to a group of idiots who seem incapable of joining any conversation without bringing doping into it, this topic has been moved to the Clinic.

 

[dbrmuz]

Thanks to a group of idiots who seem incapable of joining any conversation without bringing doping into it, this topic has been moved to the Clinic.

Pity.

Cadel looks the leanest I've ever seen him,he's definitely come prepared this year.No hidden meaning in that remark either.

 

[python]

i don't know which english-speaking nation coined the phrase 'fire in his belly'.

that's the phrase ringing in my ears when watching cadel in the tour.

i'm not a fan of his voice nor his interviews. but denying the guy's bellyfire and his outfoxing every one in st 4 finish is denying the reality.

if cadel wins this tour he may get me as a new fan !

 

[richwagmn]

ABBCOS

anybody but contador or schleck.

they're just too heavily favored to win. and effeminate.

go Cadel. i like his weird irritable personality. MTBIKE POWER!

Have you heard Cadel talk? I don't think his voice ever changed.

 

[Spider1964]

For some reason the AC supporters seem to want to pounce on anyone who is talked up as a contender, as though it is Alberto's destiny to win this race just because he has entered.

The Spanish Armada / AC lovers / Cadel Haters hovering around this thread makes me think that deep down they know that Bertie is not at the peak of his powers this year... that he is indeed vulnerable and tired from his exertions in the Giro. Personally, I like his humble nature, reckon he's a gracious champion and I desperately want to believe that it's unassisted... Time will tell on that one I guess.

Barring some fanaticism, Cadels supporters also have some degree of trepidation of how the next two and a half weeks will play out (IMO). He does seem a little bit more relaxed this year though... and I reckon even his voice seems an octave deeper? But I reckon he's only gone from sounding like Alvin to Theodore.

Makes for a fascinating race.

 

[Martin318is]

Changed my mind. This thread is actually a pretty good one and had been doing well for quite a while so it is going back into the 'real' world.

Instead, everyone who brought doping into this thread prior to the first move is going to hear from me shortly.

Anyone who posted AFTER it went into the clinic is safe from this but I will edit out any doping references.

from this point on however - as before - any person bringing doping into this thread will be getting a Strike.

 

[Rip:30]

Have you heard Cadel talk? I don't think his voice ever changed.

yea it'd be folly to stick up for any modern day GC contender's brawniness, i just like that Cadel's kind of a weirdo. and an underdog. and former mtbiker.

 

[Dermie]

Good that this was brought back to the light.
I started this thread 'cos I like him & he is a former mtb'er & have met him a few times decades ago at mtb races.
He is a battler, he hasn't been media managed to perfection (yet) I don't believe he's got a future in Hollywood or in the modeling profession but he usually displays good old raw emotion which is great entertainment for us armchair critics like me.
And most of all a tdf win would cap Australia's ascendancy in the world of cycling, along with our great wins i.e. MSR, Roubaix, Worlds, etc.
The Spaniards, French, Italians etc etc have got their cycling greats we are just starting to gain momentum pilling ours up

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

On the very first stage when I realized it was Cadel coming up and over the little rise in second place he looked like a wild animal enjoying the racing. I did not used to like him, but after the rainbow jersey and the way he has seemed to transform his racing style, I think he rides admirably.
Good luck to Cadel!

I second that, or third that. Cadel even looked calculating by watching others close and judging when to go.

Besides the effort of Cadel today, I liked the effort by a lot of others too. Greipel and Zabriskie. Hincapie's pacing to the bottom of the last climb. Thor still hanging in there to the line. Gilbert. Vino. And Conti with all those facial contortions that said PAIN, to name a few.

With exception of some misfortune that has put some in a bit of a hole, overall this has been a good first four stages.

 

[red_flanders]

Thanks to a group of idiots who seem incapable of joining any conversation without bringing doping into it, this topic has been moved to the Clinic.

So now we have mods calling posters idiots. Nice development.

 

[dbrmuz]

I'm having a hard time keeping up with this thread's location.

Great to see he's going so well (so far),and I agree with the remarks thus far that being World Champ has had a positive effect on his racing style.I'm still holding overall judgment on his chances here until the mountains-can't wait actually.

 

[Michele]

Yesterday during the stage at Rai they started talking about the contenders and they then arrived at Cadel Evans.
According to what they heard, it seems that Cadel doesn't have a very smooth relationship with his team (or probably the other way around?).

They reported 2 little examples; one day during a race he received an energy bar at strawberry flavour and he got mad cause he wanted the banana flavour.
Then in another race he asked for a water bottle to his team mate, he went all the way to the team car and get it; once he arrived back to Cadel at the front of the peloton, he said "I dont want water, I want electrolytes".

 

[Martin318is]

I'm having a hard time keeping up with this thread's location.

I apologise. It has been an exceedingly busy day and I initially took the short route to resolving where the thread had turned. I think on balance though the thread has plenty of legs without heading to the dark side.