Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[Angliru]

I don't mean to be rude because I am an Evans fan........whoever thinks Contador is a contender must already be disappointed.

Not I. I anticipate great suffering and pain for his opponents come the real mountains.

 

[Boeing]

Not I. I anticipate great suffering and pain for his opponents come the real mountains.

Word. AC will yo yo Cadel to death

 

[Angliru]

We saw it in the Dauphine as well.
Vino also has a hand in riding like that. Both Evans and Vino hang on as long as they can and then lose time.
Compara to Gesink, who is at the same climb (allevard) behind the whole time, but in the end the strongest after rodriguez. Because he kept riding own pace.
Better example would be Nibali, the master of riding his own pace.

Even Nibali made the same mistake that Evans has continued to make, the difference being during the Vuelta he saw that plan A wasn't working and altered his approach to ride at his own pace instead of immediately attempting to match the accelerations of Anton and Mosquera. Evans has yet to show that he's willing to try that approach in the grand tours.

 

[Oldman]

Ummmm....don't get me started. I was somewhat converted to his side by his Versus interview after his stage win but this just brings back memories of his diva side. I guess if you're the protected rider/leader that the team is riding for they should have some idea of what your fueling preferences are but at the same time diplomacy goes along way towards cohesion and unity.

Some guys are wrapped tight during a race and calm down after and the team would know that. Again, that's why delaying the race leadership while finding opportunities to bury Contador deeper is a good plan. Alberto was up front for the last 30km today and he should just take advantage of Cadel's team protection and ride on his hip. AC's guys are not on the front in force from the coverage I've had time to watch.

 

[Señor_Contador]

For some reason the AC supporters seem to want to pounce on anyone who is talked up as a contender, as though it is Alberto's destiny to win this race just because he has entered.

The Spanish Armada / AC lovers / Cadel Haters hovering around this thread makes me think that deep down they know that Bertie is not at the peak of his powers this year... that he is indeed vulnerable and tired from his exertions in the Giro. Personally, I like his humble nature, reckon he's a gracious champion and I desperately want to believe that it's unassisted... Time will tell on that one I guess.

Barring some fanaticism, Cadels supporters also have some degree of trepidation of how the next two and a half weeks will play out (IMO). He does seem a little bit more relaxed this year though... and I reckon even his voice seems an octave deeper? But I reckon he's only gone from sounding like Alvin to Theodore.

Makes for a fascinating race.

No mon ami! I actually like Cadel. He is one of my favorite riders. In fact, along with AC, I'd rather see him or Basso or Andy win it all.

Buuuuttt. Once the roads start pointing upwards for many, many kilometers... methinks they're going to eat him alive. And Contador too if he doesn't hide his cards. He messed up yesterday by attacking and letting everyone know his usual 6th gear is gone. Courtesy of the Giro of course.

 

[Dermie]

Ah the debate goes on, Cadel is still going as well as my starting post (below).
**Note I have not predicted outright that he would win.
Today was another example of his new team protecting him, from what I could see they were at the front all day & protected him from the carnage that occurred to many of his competitors, these sort of days grind all the riders down. It also grinds down the team members, as in they are chasing back, they are rolling around on the road losing skin getting ****ed off.
Yes I know it is only day 5 but the grind is on.
The FACT is things happen in the early stage that can count on the big mountains, getting to the mountains clean & safe is the first part, then getting through the mountains & with gas left for the ITT is another step.
From what i can see the first big test for Cadel will be on the Tourmalet on stage 12. But getting there in good shape may well count by then.
I feel that Cadell is 5 -0 up on his rivals so far, some have lost time, some have fallen off & some have had teams beaten up by the road.


The start of the thread"
The shoe is on the other foot now, Cadel is well positioned, & the others have only lost time, at least they don't have a broken arm.
This first stage is as my earlier predictions (few months ago) have panned out. Given a bit more luck Cadel can again, yes again contend for a TDF win like he did during his other two 2nd placed TDF's, 'cos he has all the other attributes.
In this 1st stage his team played perfectly & at the finale his tactics were impeccable.
Cadel Evans is a great tDF contender & has a great chance of winning, even if his media personality is not that of the all conquring popular high school captain."

 

[Publicus]

Lelangue is really singing Cuddles' tune this year. He's all but dismissed AC as a real threat this year.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/more-sports/cycling/Difficult-for-Contador-to-win-again-Lelangue/articleshow/9131026.cms

Money quote:

"With such a difficult Giro, I think it is almost impossible (for Contador) to fully recover as we discovered last year with Cadel," said the BMC team's John Lelangue.

"The riders who do not ride the Giro go and check the Tour climbs and it is a job Alberto had to do afterwards. He also raced in his national championships, which means he almost never stopped since the Giro.

"What's more, I don't think his (Saxo Bank) team is strong enough to help him out," Lelangue said.

 

[Dermie]

He has to talk up his boy & down playing the rivals, it's good for his own & his boys morals.
But he is also telling you of his boys more diligent preparation this year, I would not discount AC until the mtns are done. But 5 out of 21 Cadel is giving me a good feeling, yeah I know its been dashed before.

 

[karlboss]

He has to talk up his boy & down playing the rivals, it's good for his own & his boys morals.
But he is also telling you of his boys more diligent preparation this year, I would not discount AC until the mtns are done. But 5 out of 21 Cadel is giving me a good feeling, yeah I know its been dashed before.

As I make it its .5 from 5.5, TTT is only .5

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

"With such a difficult Giro, I think it is almost impossible (for Contador) to fully recover as we discovered last year with Cadel," said the BMC team's John Lelangue.

"The riders who do not ride the Giro go and check the Tour climbs and it is a job Alberto had to do afterwards. He also raced in his national championships, which means he almost never stopped since the Giro.

"What's more, I don't think his (Saxo Bank) team is strong enough to help him out," Lelangue said.

lol, maybe he should sign for bmc ey?

I do agree it will be difficult to recover tho.

Things are going well for cadel, well his rivals are seeminly hitting terrible luck.

 

[Dermie]

As I make it its .5 from 5.5, TTT is only .5

Not sure if you were with me there???, my thinking was he has scored on his competition so far 5 days out of 21. In the TTT he made time over most of his rivals, significant time over AC.

 

[Dermie]

lol, maybe he should sign for bmc ey?

I do agree it will be difficult to recover tho.

Things are going well for cadel, well his rivals are seeminly hitting terrible luck.

This is the FACT that I keep on banging on about. I read the statistics here all the time about who has done what, when & how, but the FACT is keeping your self free from terrible luck is a knack. Lance certainly had it, but then he had a good team to help him through.
The TDF & the other GT's are serious team events.

 

[Kender]

don;t discount Kloden either. if he can shed himself of any anchors (team mates that are also high up in GC) then he'll be in contention. he has demonstrated his ability to drag himself over any hill cuddles can in the tour, and he can TT. He always seems to get roped into helping his team mates that aren't doing as well as him though

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

This is the FACT that I keep on banging on about. I read the statistics here all the time about who has done what, when & how, but the FACT is keeping your self free from terrible luck is a knack. Lance certainly had it, but then he had a good team to help him through.
The TDF & the other GT's are serious team events.

It has a lot to do with lucky really. Gesink was near the front when his crash happend, it just so happend another protected rider was the guy who crashed.

You'll find the TDF in the mountains Evans team will look less great, I guarantee that. Anyone a guy like Shleck is more or less unscratched also, and should be way too good for cadel in the mountains, where nervous behaivour is not such an issue.

No one doubts Cadel is a great all round rider, but he really doesn't cut in the mountains imo.

 

[Publicus]

Not sure if you were with me there???, my thinking was he has scored on his competition so far 5 days out of 21. In the TTT he made time over most of his rivals, significant time over AC.

Well if the remaining 16 days were identical or even similar to the first 5, then pointing scoreboard this early in the race would be warranted. But as we all know, those remaining stages contain more opportunities for his rivals to gain time, than they do for Cuddles to gain time. This is his terrain and he needs to maximize his gains this week and hope his form holds together to the final TT.

 

[Kender]

It has a lot to do with lucky really. Gesink was near the front when his crash happend, it just so happend another protected rider was the guy who crashed.

You'll find the TDF in the mountains Evans team will look less great, I guarantee that. Anyone a guy like Shleck is more or less unscratched also, and should be way too good for cadel in the mountains, where nervous behaivour is not such an issue.

No one doubts Cadel is a great all round rider, but he really doesn't cut in the mountains imo.

Shlecklet has alot to prove still. he hasn't shown any kind of form so far. but he rarely does until the tour gets hard so maybe he'll be fine. Frank on the other hand is lookig good. pity TT for him means Terrible Time

 

[Dermie]

T l R
You are right about luck, but it does seem to be able to be managed better by some than others. The long standing tour greats were 1st of all better than their rivals but have been able to manage their luck better than the rest at the time. Maybe the "other protected rider" was not being very well protected??

Publicus
I think the days up to day 12 will be suited enough for Cadel. There are enough days in that time to consolidate his position, & if the others are not getting the good luck (read; or team failing them) he will be difficult to beat.
Having said that none of the top 5 or so of any tdf's are easy beats.

 

[movingtarget]

Not I. I anticipate great suffering and pain for his opponents come the real mountains.

Maybe but up to today I would rather be Evans than Contador. Contador involved in three crashes. Evans no crashes plus a stage win and one second off yellow. Contador may handle stress and pressure well but Evans looks very relaxed at the moment and without the pressure of the yellow jersey.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Maybe but up to today I would rather be Evans than Contador. Contador involved in three crashes. Evans no crashes plus a stage win and one second off yellow. Contador may handle stress and pressure well but Evans looks very relaxed at the moment and without the pressure of the yellow jersey.

A big credit should go to his team for that. Guys like Schär, Burghardt, Quinziato and Hincapie have been riding on the front in every finish keeping him well protected.

 

[richwagmn]

Maybe but up to today I would rather be Evans than Contador. Contador involved in three crashes. Evans no crashes plus a stage win and one second off yellow. Contador may handle stress and pressure well but Evans looks very relaxed at the moment and without the pressure of the yellow jersey.

You know Evan's day is coming. He'll have one of his breakdowns. It's just a matter of time.

 

[Dermie]

You know Evan's day is coming. He'll have one of his breakdowns. It's just a matter of time.

His day is coming!! but at the moment his odds are getting better & it looks like that day is climbing further up the podium steps in Paris

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

oh how I can't wait for the mountains

 

[just some guy]

oh how I can't wait for the mountains

Me too and I like watching Cadel race but this fanboyism stuff is driving me nuts. Take out the forum crap though it does make the tour more exciting watch rather than have everyone waiting till stage 12 to start to race.

 

[just some guy]

For anyone who doesn´t read the Age in Australia.

Bit biased of course but a few interesting highlights.

The team are giving him 1 hour everyday alone.

http://media.theage.com.au/sport/sports-hq/cadel-evans--the-real-deal-2477477.html

 

[Oldman]

Me too and I like watching Cadel race but this fanboyism stuff is driving me nuts. Take out the forum crap though it does make the tour more exciting watch rather than have everyone waiting till stage 12 to start to race.

This is the crazy fan season, definitely. But there are some emergent keys similar to LA/Contador seasons where the "contenders" got nicked and dinged on what were supposed to be uneventful and flat stages and LA & Alberto launched "key" attacks with little resistance. Specific similarities are the solid TTT work and full team surround on windy stages rife with splits and crashes. Can Cadel benefit from it? I think he has a shot if Contador, Gesink and Schleck absorb any more abuse. There's also the Vino factor: he'll wreck a party just because that's what he does and his major party bummer target would logically be anyone that climbs better than he and the twiggy guys are top of the list. Cadel won't have to do all the dirty work.