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Cadel's only hopes

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Jun 16, 2009
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ericthesportsman6 said:
I really don't think Cadel even has a chance. Obviously, he won't be outclimbing any of the leaders, and he isn't a stronger TTer than Armstrong Leipheimer or Contador. Not to mention he's already three minutes back. His little attempt to impersonate Floyd Landis showed he's just not a smart enough rider to win this Tour, or even make the podium.

O and about the post count :), I've been watching cycling for 10 years now (not that old) and I have like 5 posts. This has been my favorite cycling site for a while and it wasn't until a couple of days ago that I realized it had forums.
:eek:
Please don't publish garbage on the net which you know is wrong and that everyone else knows is wrong. I don't think i have to point out your wrong points (neraly everything) but if i must then i will!
 
Jun 16, 2009
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www.oxygencycles.com
Amerikans are so easy to spot

ericthesportsman6 said:
I really don't think Cadel even has a chance. Obviously, he won't be outclimbing any of the leaders, and he isn't a stronger TTer than Armstrong Leipheimer or Contador. Not to mention he's already three minutes back. His little attempt to impersonate Floyd Landis showed he's just not a smart enough rider to win this Tour, or even make the podium.

O and about the post count :), I've been watching cycling for 10 years now (not that old) and I have like 5 posts. This has been my favorite cycling site for a while and it wasn't until a couple of days ago that I realized it had forums.

Two things, only an American would rate Leipheimer's and Armstrong's TT'ing as currently better than Cadel's (please refer to the results from Stage 1 of THIS year's tour).

And two, while posting on an Australian site (even if it's been bought by the pommes) please respect the English language. Use the letter "u" in word's like "favourite"; and use an "s", not a "z" (pronounced zed) in words like "realised". We don't go to America and feed babies to dingoes so why should you come to our corner of the internet and put our language through a blender.

And, unless we here differently form the AFLD or WADA, Cadel hasn't been impersonating Landis.
 
badboyberty said:
And two, while posting on an Australian site (even if it's been bought by the pommes) please respect the English language. Use the letter "u" in word's like "favourite"; and use an "s", not a "z" (pronounced zed) in words like "realised". We don't go to America and feed babies to dingoes so why should you come to our corner of the internet and put our language through a blender.

Crikey. Don't throw a wobbly, and don't be such a clacker. We American drongos have a hard enough time writin seppo English. Now you want us to write in strine like we're Croc Hunter-like bushies?

I don't want to change my name to Mate's Rate.
 
dimspace said:
it is interesting how post count is interpreted around here... by 500 youve watched every tour for 30 years and all the classics and can real of a few world champions...

me.. im a fraud,. i only got into cycling when i heard lance armstrong was making a comeback.. :D
Me too! ;)

badboyberty said:
And, unless we here differently form the AFLD or WADA, Cadel hasn't been impersonating Landis.
Not. Even. Close.

Go back and watch that 2006 Tour. Ignore the doping mess and assume they were all equally hot or close to it (because it's likely true). Floyd had a brilliant strategy - explained in detail in his book, played it to a T, and rode his heart out. If Cadel is going to not get in a lucky break or form an alliance, but break solo, he's going to have to do it like Floyd did. Get people with their guard down, and at the right moment, on a day he's confidence he can last. He's shown no indication that he's capable of doing that. I appreciate his attempts at attacking, as he's practically the ONLY rider on GC to do that in this crushingly boring Tour (so far), but his attacks are nothing like what Floyd did.

Now, before anyone jumps me who doesn't know me, I'll said as I did before, I do believe Floyd was +, and he and especially his legal and management team's behavior during his hearing was appalling and inexcusable.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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BroDeal said:
Crikey. Don't throw a wobbly, and don't be such a clacker. We American drongos have a hard enough time writin seppo English. Now you want us to write in strine like we're Croc Hunter-like bushies?

I don't want to change my name to Mate's Rate.

S'truth, Bruce, that was ace, a real beaut! I spat me Fosters over the screen. And me thinking this was a bog standard Pom forum when it's really a Strine forum, well I never....gobsmacked doesn't come close....

:D
 
Jun 22, 2009
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From a rookie member

Being a newcomer to this association of bicycle race lovers, I appreciate being allowed to contribute without being unduly slashed and punished just for kicks: Being attacked for no reason merely drives people away, so thanks for your indulgence.

As for Cadel (and I hope I'm not being too obvious), he's screwed, and I can't see what his recourse might be: Too bad, since he is my one of my picks to win. Cadel's mental and physical form have never been better: He has been fast all season, and, as importantly, he has been aggressive, finally! But, as we all know, Silence Lotto does not support him, but since the loss of Robbie, they don't support anybody, not even Phil Gilbert, the only other rider besides Cadel to win for them this season. So, If I were Cadel, I would use the '09 Tour as an auditioning vehicle for the remainder of his career. Since his GC hopes are over (I think), he should ride smart, but he should attack whenever he can. He lives in Italy, so maybe he should play the Italian card and ride with pure passion to show the world that he can. He should try to win a stage, even if it means he has to use his whole tank of gas to do so. What stage though? Whatta ya think?

Thanks for your time and patience.
 
Jul 4, 2009
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IMO, as long as Cadel only has Astana riders in front of him at the end, he has won. There is no reason why he cant get rid of the rest. Sit on Astana and or the yellow thats all he has to do.

Remember, in Tour terms, he is just a baby.
 
Jun 18, 2009
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Amsterhammer said:
S'truth, Bruce, that was ace, a real beaut! I spat me Fosters over the screen. And me thinking this was a bog standard Pom forum when it's really a Strine forum, well I never....gobsmacked doesn't come close....

:D

You almost had me there.... except noone in Australia drinks Fosters! :p
 
Jun 22, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
:eek:
Please don't publish garbage on the net which you know is wrong and that everyone else knows is wrong. I don't think i have to point out your wrong points (neraly everything) but if i must then i will!

I think it was pretty accurate
excluding the tting vs La and LL
 
badboyberty said:
And two, while posting on an Australian site (even if it's been bought by the pommes) please respect the English language. Use the letter "u" in word's like "favourite"; and use an "s", not a "z" (pronounced zed) in words like "realised". We don't go to America and feed babies to dingoes so why should you come to our corner of the internet and put our language through a blender.

that was "heaps good" ;)

and if you're from willunga, you'll know where i'm coming from...
 
Archibald said:
no brainer - Ventoux

I think he should try to Landis stage 17. All that up and down could help a lone guy go from two or three peaks out and hang on for some serious time gains.

Of course, he'd have to have exceptional legs, but he might be able to do it. I hope SOMEBODY does it, or something like it.
 
There's not enough variation on the Ventoux, and as we're likely to see wind, we'll also likely see Astana try to control the climb, as it's quite possible they'll have four of the top five positions at that time.

If I were Cadel, here's what I would do. But he's going to have to plan it. First, look at some profiles: First, Let's look at Stage 16:

PROFIL.gif


Two huge climbs over the Grand then Petite St. Bernard climbs. If I were Cadel, I'd fake an early attack on the first climb, knowing I'd be caught. I'd then take it easy on that stage as much as possible, and purposefully drop back a few seconds on the second climb, and roll into the finish in Bourg-Saint Maurice looking exhausted, and a little back. Say, losing another 4-5 seconds. I might even go to the media and give interviews saying that you spent yourself on the first climb and have never been so tired in your life. But are not going to quit, and will attack again if you can, all the way to Paris.

Both the actions, and the words is to set-up the impression that you're still going to try to attack, but you are done, and don't have it.

Then, I'd get a good night's sleep, knowing I have a great plan in store for the next day. Here's stage 17:

PROFIL.gif


This stage is the final mountain stage before the ITT in Annecy, so riders are not going to want to waste themselves. We're likely to see an Astana train leading as long as possible here, with fliers from little knowns going off.

If I were Cadel, I'd ride in the mid-front of the group all day until they hit the Col du Romme, which is probably the toughest climb of the day. I'd attack here, about half-way up, as it's probably his best chance to get away. Someone may be ahead of him, or someone else may attack further down, either way, he has to time it right, and go. Others will probably think it's too far out, that he's too far back, and that after he attacked and wilted the day before, he'll wilt here too. And who's going to want to risk wearing themselves out at this point chasing, when the ITT is tomorrow? This would leave Cadel with about 15km of tough climbing where he'd have to ride his guts out, before the descent into Le Grand-Bornand.

He's not going to make up enough time on the ITT, and likely not on the Ventoux. But if he does it here, he could put himself into serious contention, or even the lead. He may lose time on the ITT, but it's his strength, and he should be able to contain that.

Comments anyone? Happy to hear other suggestions.
 
Jun 18, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
There's not enough variation on the Ventoux, and as we're likely to see wind, we'll also likely see Astana try to control the climb, as it's quite possible they'll have four of the top five positions at that time. .....

+1.... Interesting idea. I was thinking stage 16 would be the best place for him to have a go, as the stage is basically all up and down. Cadel seems to be a pretty good descender, so this stage might suit him.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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What Hinault says Schlecks, Evans etc. should do:

"VeloNews: Astana is controlling the Tour, what should riders do to break the stranglehold?

Bernard Hinault: Attack! It’s necessary to attack. There are not 36 solutions, just attack! I think the four riders who are placed in GC, if the others don’t try to attack them, there is no way to get time on them. But with what is left of the Tour, there are still ways to pressure them; to have some fun.

VN: But isn’t it necessary to attack intelligently?

BH: There is nothing but brute force that can win a race. The only thing the head is good for is to help endure the elements, because there are some riders who are not so strong in the head and not so good at that.

VN: What about the riders and pundits who criticized Cadel Evans when he attacked on the Envalira early in the stage to Arcalis?

BH: They should go home! It’s not them who pay his salary. He is paid to race. That’s all. There is no question. If that annoys them, then they should stay at home! I have always said that someone who wants to attack, should attack. And then afterward we’ll see. He tried. That’s his role. He’s the leader of the team. He is not there to follow the others. He has to keep trying. He has to attack from behind to surprise. He cannot attack off the front like he did.

(NB my comment: Cadel was making this mistake at Dauphine too; Backstedt at Cyclingtv thought he should correct it)

VN: We’re seeing some polemic between Armstrong and Contador, was that similar to you and LeMond in the 1980s?

BH: No, no. There was no polemic between Greg and me. In 1985, I was designated to win the Tour and in 1986, it was his turn. And it happened just like that. What we’re seeing now is that two want to win. It is quite the opposite. Armstrong says he wants to win and Contador is here to win as well. In their story, the combat is still to come! The first shot was at La Grande Motte in the big breakaway. If the two Astana riders with him would have pulled, he would have been in yellow. Contador responded with a counter-punch at Arcalis. No matter what happens, it is not the team manager who races the race. It will be riders who decide and who can smash the pedals the hardest. One of the two will be at the front.

VN: Does rivalry within Astana threaten to split the team?

BH: They should have picked a clear leader before the start, then there would be no doubts. But what makes it even more interesting is that there are not only two, but there are four! Kloden and Leipheimer are there, so what do you do? There are not a lot of teammates to look after them. It can be dangerous. Plus, we don’t know the attitude of Kloden and Leipheimer. What will they do? If they go in a breakaway, what happens behind?

VN: Do you think the other rivals can make an alliance against Astana?

BH: Not an alliance, but the circumstances of the race will see some interests come together. The Schleck brothers must take turns attacking, and Evans as well. You don’t want them riding against each other. You need to wait until one of them makes an attack, then leave it to Astana to chase, and then another team should attack against them. Let them chase! Take turns attacking them! Wear them out! But don’t start riding against each other.

http://tour-de-france.velonews.com/article/95199/hinault--only-way-to-beat-astana-is-attack-
 
Mar 18, 2009
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Maybe someone should 'loan' Cadel a Skil-Shimano or Katusha jersey so he can get away - this looks like the only way he will be able to make up the deficit ;)
 
Mar 18, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
There's not enough variation on the Ventoux ....
...

Comments anyone? Happy to hear other suggestions.

Excellent tactical move and plan outlined here, Alpe. BUT I don't think it will fly even if it is taken up by the media and escalated to say that Cadel is DONE - I think the main rivals and contenders will never give him the ability and leeway to get away and try to make up even one minute deficit.

But still an interesting tactical move
 
Cadel might be at his strongest form of his life, but he cannot attack and escape the likes of AC, LA, baby, or Sastre.

The Tour is always a game of attrition. In the Alps Astana will set the pace and riders will drop off, one at a time. Cadel will be one of the last, but in the end it will be between LA and AC. Sorry.
 
Ninety5rpm said:
Cadel might be at his strongest form of his life, but he cannot attack and escape the likes of AC, LA, baby, or Sastre.

The Tour is always a game of attrition. In the Alps Astana will set the pace and riders will drop off, one at a time. Cadel will be one of the last, but in the end it will be between LA and AC. Sorry.

I think Evans, The Brothers Schleck, and Sastre will go off the front before that happens. The real question is: Which Astana will follow and when?
 
Jun 18, 2009
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mr. tibbs said:
I think Evans, The Brothers Schleck, and Sastre will go off the front before that happens. The real question is: Which Astana will follow and when?

I hope they take turns attacking, as outlined in Parrot23's post above that quoted Hinault. It would be great to see Astana put under a bit of pressure.

I think AC will be able to hang with any attacks in the Alps. Not so sure about LA....
 
mr. tibbs said:
I think Evans, The Brothers Schleck, and Sastre will go off the front before that happens. The real question is: Which Astana will follow and when?
They'll try, I hope, but I don't see them staying away. And that will just hasten the inevitable - them dropping off the back of the reformed grupetto comprised of the heads of state.
 
Cobber said:
I hope they take turns attacking, as outlined in Parrot23's post above that quoted Hinault. It would be great to see Astana put under a bit of pressure.

I think AC will be able to hang with any attacks in the Alps. Not so sure about LA....
I think we can agree that Lance is lighter and stronger than he was at the giro.
Now look at how he did on the last climb of the giro.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2009//giro09/?id=results/giro0919

profile19.gif


LA lost 1:42 to Sastre on that beast, but, again, he is now stronger and lighter. Much stronger and lighter than most expected.

He wasn't dropped in the Pyrenees, except maybe by Contador (reasonable people can disagree on whether he was dropped, or decided not to chase - I have no idea). I see no reason to believe he will be dropped in the Alps by anyone except maybe AC, and every reason to believe he will be doing the dropping.
 

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