There's not enough variation on the Ventoux, and as we're likely to see wind, we'll also likely see Astana try to control the climb, as it's quite possible they'll have four of the top five positions at that time.
If I were Cadel, here's what I would do. But he's going to have to plan it. First, look at some profiles: First, Let's look at Stage 16:
Two huge climbs over the Grand then Petite St. Bernard climbs. If I were Cadel, I'd fake an early attack on the first climb, knowing I'd be caught. I'd then take it easy on that stage as much as possible, and purposefully drop back a few seconds on the second climb, and roll into the finish in Bourg-Saint Maurice looking exhausted, and a little back. Say, losing another 4-5 seconds. I might even go to the media and give interviews saying that you spent yourself on the first climb and have never been so tired in your life. But are not going to quit, and will attack again if you can, all the way to Paris.
Both the actions, and the words is to set-up the impression that you're still going to try to attack, but you are done, and don't have it.
Then, I'd get a good night's sleep, knowing I have a great plan in store for the next day. Here's stage 17:
This stage is the final mountain stage before the ITT in Annecy, so riders are not going to want to waste themselves. We're likely to see an Astana train leading as long as possible here, with fliers from little knowns going off.
If I were Cadel, I'd ride in the mid-front of the group all day until they hit the Col du Romme, which is probably the toughest climb of the day. I'd attack here, about half-way up, as it's probably his best chance to get away. Someone may be ahead of him, or someone else may attack further down, either way, he has to time it right, and go. Others will probably think it's too far out, that he's too far back, and that after he attacked and wilted the day before, he'll wilt here too. And who's going to want to risk wearing themselves out at this point chasing, when the ITT is tomorrow? This would leave Cadel with about 15km of tough climbing where he'd have to ride his guts out, before the descent into Le Grand-Bornand.
He's not going to make up enough time on the ITT, and likely not on the Ventoux. But if he does it here, he could put himself into serious contention, or even the lead. He may lose time on the ITT, but it's his strength, and he should be able to contain that.
Comments anyone? Happy to hear other suggestions.