Cadel's only hopes

[subzro]

+4 very good summary, Angliru

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Unfortunately, not many riders seem to race that way these days.

Not since Flandis...

 

[Boeing]

put a fork in him

 

[Ninety5rpm]

I agree with Hinault's assessment that the contenders outside of Astana must attack relentlessly hoping to find a flaw in their armour.

Gotta disagree. That's what they said should be done - attack, attack, attack, to find a weakness - back when it was only Armstrong and his mates.

It never worked then, and now they're saying to do that when it's not only Armstrong, but also Contador, Levi and Klodi???

The problem with that is that there is a cost to every attack. Cadel's stupid attack today is going to accomplish nothing but cost him.

Someone has to attack, to be sure, but it can't be relentless. It has to be carefully planned, executed and precisely timed. In other words, they have to outthink Lance and Bruyneel. Good luck with that.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

+5 for the summary (and photo of Miles )

 

[BroDeal]

Single riders cannot attack Astana plus the rest of the peloton and expect to get anywhere. A whole team or two, like Silence-Lotto plus Saxo or Cervelo, would have to burn off all the domestiques early in a stage, leaving the four Astanas and the other GC contenders to go it alone. The Astanas can afford to just follow wheels, so all the work would have to be done by riders like Evans, the Shreks, and Sastre. They would have to be willing to go nearly full gas initially so the group would not be caught from behind. Get enough of a lead in front of the chasing domestiques and then we could talk about single GC riders attacking the small remaining group.

A FLandis-like attack won't work with a team like Astana, which will chase without playing chicken with the rest of the teams by trying to get them to do the work.

 

[mickkk]

Cadels in fine form and riding well. He is fit enough to make a break in the mountains. Hes been lulling them into a false sense of security Astana is now saying Cadel who? Thats good for Cadel. Real challenge will to remain un injured.

 

[Hammerhed]

Oz

As an American, I have always felt an affinity for Australians, perhaps because of our common paternity or our somewhat similar beginnings or maybe just because of our shared culture: Our countries really are more alike than different. So every time an Australian disrespects us for no other reason than being American, I feel saddened really. Don't get me wrong though, as I'm not going to slash my wrists, start taking Prozac, or turn into a quivering mass of self-doubt. I just don't understand why people who share a common interest--a unique common interest at that, one that we both watch and participate in--can't overlook some very minor and superficial differences--like the spelling of a word!--and instead focus on the larger and more enjoyable subject, bike racing.
I for one didn't know this site originated in Australia though I've been reading it for a few years; but I didn't participate in the forums either. Since the site managers don't "wave the flag" much and seem to welcome all of us furriners without showing much repugnance, I just naturally felt welcomed.
However, when I recently began posting, I saw a side of this culture that I had missed before, a low, belittling, trivial, judgemental, and even freakin' evil disposition that doesn't show on the official site. Now, I'm not so foolish as to believe that Australians have a monopoly on idiotic behavior or that they are any more back biting than any other group of humans, because they are fundamentally the same as every one else, good and bad.
All that blabbering to ask if I really must change the way I spell to talk to you. I certainly don't disrespect Australians or their culture, not even an iota, none. Americans in general love Australia and Australians: We think it is the coolest place on the planet, like America but more carefree. We see Australia as informal, tolerant, with cowboys and surfers and "natives" (no disrespect, guys, for real) and babes and beer and on and on. We love you guys, and you want to kick us under the bus because we don't spell the same way. Dude, come on. Really?

 

[Angliru]

+1 . Let it be said there are some here that I believe to be Australian that are quite civil unless pushed to the edge (msjett being the first that comes to mind). We should all try to be more civil and welcoming to newcomers and to those that don't hold the vast knowledge of the world that some of us seem to think that they have. The moderators can't and shouldn't have to police each and every word but collectively we can try to enforce some type of code of civility and simply agree to disagree. As was stated we all obviously love this sport and with that love of course comes passion and with passion sometimes comes rage. Its a thin line we have to toe but we all should be able to simply recognize what is right and what is wrong behaviour wise (how's that, I included the "u" ).

If someone really gets under our skin that is what the ignore option is for.

 

[elapid]

As an American, I have always felt an affinity for Australians, perhaps because of our common paternity or our somewhat similar beginnings or maybe just because of our shared culture: Our countries really are more alike than different. So every time an Australian disrespects us for no other reason than being American, I feel saddened really. Don't get me wrong though, as I'm not going to slash my wrists, start taking Prozac, or turn into a quivering mass of self-doubt. I just don't understand why people who share a common interest--a unique common interest at that, one that we both watch and participate in--can't overlook some very minor and superficial differences--like the spelling of a word!--and instead focus on the larger and more enjoyable subject, bike racing.
I for one didn't know this site originated in Australia though I've been reading it for a few years; but I didn't participate in the forums either. Since the site managers don't "wave the flag" much and seem to welcome all of us furriners without showing much repugnance, I just naturally felt welcomed.
However, when I recently began posting, I saw a side of this culture that I had missed before, a low, belittling, trivial, judgemental, and even freakin' evil disposition that doesn't show on the official site. Now, I'm not so foolish as to believe that Australians have a monopoly on idiotic behavior or that they are any more back biting than any other group of humans, because they are fundamentally the same as every one else, good and bad.
All that blabbering to ask if I really must change the way I spell to talk to you. I certainly don't disrespect Australians or their culture, not even an iota, none. Americans in general love Australia and Australians: We think it is the coolest place on the planet, like America but more carefree. We see Australia as informal, tolerant, with cowboys and surfers and "natives" (no disrespect, guys, for real) and babes and beer and on and on. We love you guys, and you want to kick us under the bus because we don't spell the same way. Dude, come on. Really?

Unfortunately, it is the outspoken people that others hear. During the Bush era, America was regarded poorly by people from many countries. However, we still knew that this did not reflect on Americans in general. The same with the stereotypical "ugly American tourist" - this is not representative of Americans. There are plenty of ugly Australians, and French tourists were recently voted as the rudest tourists. But hopefully this is not representative of the vast majority of Americans, Australians, and French. Don't give up hope - I am an Aussie and now spell like Americans after living in the States and Canada for 8 years!

 

[Angliru]

+5 for the summary (and photo of Miles )

Thanks Alpe. (That is a great shot of Miles isn't it?).

 

[ridley]

I guess we now know how Cadel is going to make it back to the podium - he is going to crash into the rivals and that way take them out of contention ...

Ok, ok .... only kidding - but still sorry to see LL leave !!!!

 

[Archibald]

As an American, I have always felt an affinity for Australians, perhaps because of our common paternity or our somewhat similar beginnings or maybe just because of our shared culture: Our countries really are more alike than different. So every time an Australian disrespects us for no other reason than being American, I feel saddened really. Don't get me wrong though, as I'm not going to slash my wrists, start taking Prozac, or turn into a quivering mass of self-doubt. I just don't understand why people who share a common interest--a unique common interest at that, one that we both watch and participate in--can't overlook some very minor and superficial differences--like the spelling of a word!--and instead focus on the larger and more enjoyable subject, bike racing.
I for one didn't know this site originated in Australia though I've been reading it for a few years; but I didn't participate in the forums either. Since the site managers don't "wave the flag" much and seem to welcome all of us furriners without showing much repugnance, I just naturally felt welcomed.
However, when I recently began posting, I saw a side of this culture that I had missed before, a low, belittling, trivial, judgemental, and even freakin' evil disposition that doesn't show on the official site. Now, I'm not so foolish as to believe that Australians have a monopoly on idiotic behavior or that they are any more back biting than any other group of humans, because they are fundamentally the same as every one else, good and bad.
All that blabbering to ask if I really must change the way I spell to talk to you. I certainly don't disrespect Australians or their culture, not even an iota, none. Americans in general love Australia and Australians: We think it is the coolest place on the planet, like America but more carefree. We see Australia as informal, tolerant, with cowboys and surfers and "natives" (no disrespect, guys, for real) and babes and beer and on and on. We love you guys, and you want to kick us under the bus because we don't spell the same way. Dude, come on. Really?

methinks "tone" is something that is struggled to be recognised at times when you're just reading words rather than hearing them.
I laughed at the spelling bit - for me it's always been something to sh*tstir/windup my American mates over, but it took a while before they got the Aussie sense of humour in winding them up...
listen to Frankie... he say...

we now resume with our normal programming...

Cadel's chances just improved with the departure of Levi.

 

[fatandfast]

In order for Cadel to win he needs to attack.Not on the bike I mean go into the Astana bus and start swinging for wickets! and then when the are hurt rub swine flu gloo all over their faces and then run to another bus and repeat the process.After the TTT I wouldn't skip the Lotto bus and those guys on his team would know why he was doing it.Yo hammerhead there were only 2 other fu@#ed up countries that agreed with anything Bush did,UK and AU, all three of us are know as ugly tourists in Iraq.Bell's Beach is the best and that Coopers is super duper.Go Cadel.......to another team.

 

[Amsterhammer]

We should all try to be more civil and welcoming to newcomers and to those that don't hold the vast knowledge of the world that some of us seem to think that they have. The moderators can't and shouldn't have to police each and every word but collectively we can try to enforce some type of code of civility and simply agree to disagree. As was stated we all obviously love this sport and with that love of course comes passion and with passion sometimes comes rage. Its a thin line we have to toe but we all should be able to simply recognize what is right and what is wrong behaviour wise (how's that, I included the "u" ).

If someone really gets under our skin that is what the ignore option is for.

Hear, hear....or 'word'....well put Angliru, couldn't agree more! Maybe this should go in the 'Think before you post' topic, as it'll be lost in here.

 

[auscyclefan94]

So those bone-head moves earlier in the tour were Sargeant's calls? I hope not.

I don't think so. He had to try something on those mountain stages. Why should he just throw away the tour and not lose or try to gain time. I was surprised that Schleck and Sastre didn't do much in the pyrenees because AC will beat those 2 in the ITT easily and they have to get 1:45 and 2:52 back on AC and then gain some time before Annecy. I think Mont Ventoux unless the deficit is between a minute then the winner would of already been decided.

 

[Boeing]

Cadel's only hope is to sign with Garmin the first week in August

 

[runninboy]

Gotta disagree. That's what they said should be done - attack, attack, attack, to find a weakness - back when it was only Armstrong and his mates.

It never worked then, and now they're saying to do that when it's not only Armstrong, but also Contador, Levi and Klodi???

The problem with that is that there is a cost to every attack. Cadel's stupid attack today is going to accomplish nothing but cost him.

Someone has to attack, to be sure, but it can't be relentless. It has to be carefully planned, executed and precisely timed. In other words, they have to outthink Lance and Bruyneel. Good luck with that.

I disagree, while it is nice to carefully map out strategy, it is not an exact science. What happens is you concentrate your attacks in order to try and get the most out of what you have. Then you have people who only want to counter, "let someone else take the starch out of Astana, then we attack!"
So we have alot of teams sitting & waiting which gives Astana more time that they are not working hard. The longer they neutralize the race that reduces the amount of time that they will have to cover attacks. We are getting to the point where there will be just a few stages with a few hard attacks, perfect for Astana.

Hinault was right, you attack today, someone attacks after you, someone after that. You do that day after day. Eventually someone breaks. Astana has to mark Evans,VDV,Martin,Sastre,Kruezinger, plus keep an eye on a break with anyone in the top 30 as they all are within 6 minutes of yellow.
The only way to neutralize Astana is attack them in numbers.

 

[runninboy]

Right now time is running out and with Levi gone Astana is down 1.
One advantage the other GC hopefuls have is anything can happen.
So you put all the variables in play, you make Astana push the descents as well as the climbs. Maybe they overcook a corner, make them chase hard when they flat, if you let them dictate the tempo you remove the dangers of the course. You take them out of their comfort zone so if something happens it will cost them. Box Lance in on a climb so he can't follow an attack right away.

When i was racing on the track you learned in a bunch race when the first rider pulls off and the next in line hesitates you immediately attack. Because the first rider has just pulled, the second rider is reluctant so you use both of them as blockers which gives you a three bike length lead immediately and everyone else has to get around them.

If you mostly sit you are just handing the advantage to the strongest rider.
it aint' rocket science

 

[msjett]

I disagree, while it is nice to carefully map out strategy, it is not an exact science. What happens is you concentrate your attacks in order to try and get the most out of what you have. Then you have people who only want to counter, "let someone else take the starch out of Astana, then we attack!"
So we have alot of teams sitting & waiting which gives Astana more time that they are not working hard. The longer they neutralize the race that reduces the amount of time that they will have to cover attacks. We are getting to the point where there will be just a few stages with a few hard attacks, perfect for Astana.

Hinault was right, you attack today, someone attacks after you, someone after that. You do that day after day. Eventually someone breaks. Astana has to mark Evans,VDV,Martin,Sastre,Kruezinger, plus keep an eye on a break with anyone in the top 30 as they all are within 6 minutes of yellow.
The only way to neutralize Astana is attack them in numbers.

+1

One of the things that I have questioned is, why Astana are so keen to keep someone 3 mins or more back so in check... In the case of Evan's, his team is not particularly strong, so letting him get yellow could be a good tactical move...they have the strength in numbers to pound the crap out of SIL. Do they really rate him (or any of the others for that matter) that much of a threat?

I have always maintained Evan's chance of winning being slim - wafer thin is how I would describe it right now.

 

[mickkk]

Last night was the perfect chance to gain some time, I still think hes got a big effort in the tank for the last week.

 

[mherm79]

Hinault was right, you attack today, someone attacks after you, someone after that. You do that day after day. Eventually someone breaks. Astana has to mark Evans,VDV,Martin,Sastre,Kruezinger, plus keep an eye on a break with anyone in the top 30 as they all are within 6 minutes of yellow.
The only way to neutralize Astana is attack them in numbers.

that's what they used to try against Merkx.

even if it they fail, at least Astana will be forced to work hard and it will be good viewing!

 

[runninboy]

that's what they used to try against Merkx.

even if it they fail, at least Astana will be forced to work hard and it will be good viewing!

exactly it is better than hoping someone else screws up and another tour falls by the wayside

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

after stage 15, i have concluded Evans forsure would have won the tour had it not been for the TTT

 

[Boeing]

his only hope is leadville 100

go 29er back on the trail cadel and bring something to the sport for a change