Can Christian Vande Velde win the 2011 Tour de France?

[ak-zaaf]

Cvv finished 8th in 2009 - not a bad performance considering he crashed in the giro apparently breaking vertebrae, ribs and his pelvis. How did he recover so quickly?

Indeed, I thought that was an amazing accomplishment.

But Garmin would be stupid to bet on more than one horse. Hesjedal seems be the guy for the coming years.

 

[Granville57]

It really does not. Too many people think genetics plays a more prominent role than it does in the success of cyclists. It is often a view taken by the lazy and/or those unfamiliar with training routine and lifestyle of a top-level rider.

Well, the tone of my post is meant to be light-hearted but...you're joking, right? I would suggest that genetics have a great deal to do with success in all sports. There's never a shortage of athletes willing to sacrifice everything they have, and work as hard as they possibly can to achieve success. But only a select few will rise the top.

I could train endlessly, with a team of the best coaches and trainers in the world, and never, ever make it to the pro level. Why? I wasn't born with the proper engine for the task. If we compare "top-level riders" they all have access to advance training, nutrition, etc. They all train hard. So what separates them from each other?

And how would you explain Taylor Phinney?

 

[Roland Rat]

CVV? win the Tour?

 

[maltiv]

It really does not. Too many people think genetics plays a more prominent role than it does in the success of cyclists. It is often a view taken by the lazy and/or those unfamiliar with training routine and lifestyle of a top-level rider.

That's a very ignorant claim. If you look at most of the pros, you will see that their training is very similar. What separates an average domestique from a winner is genetics. Life is not as simple as Chris Carmichael would have you to believe by claiming that Lance wins simply because he trains "more" than his competitors...

 

[The Hitch]

If Andy and Gesink crash out

<snip>

(Andy, Gesink, Basso)

Wow. You rate Gesink really really really really highly.

 

[Ryaguas]

CVV cant make it =/ he can make a top 10 but podium is almost impossible... If I were JV I'll put my money on Le Mevel, Ryder or Tommy D.

 

[The_Z_man]

I voted with my heart and not my head, and still picked on of the "No" answers. I'm an American homer, and Argyle Armada member, so I voted that he could get podium position if he doesn't fall off. However, realistically, he'll be lucky for a top 10.

 

[marinoni]

If only he was a couple years younger I'd say he has a decent chance. However, I think in recent years fans have forgotten some very real truths about aging cyclists. Our perceptions about what is possible for older athletes have changed and I think that's great and overdue but I also think there are still limits and very good reasons why riders in their mid-thirties don't win the Tour. Same goes for Vino and Evans. I think it's time to get Martin in the Tour and see what they really have with this kid.

 

[Chuffy]

If he did get on the podium he'd probably fall off that as well.

It would be nice, bless him, but no, it's not going to happen.

 

[mombus]

I could train endlessly, with a team of the best coaches and trainers in the world, and never, ever make it to the pro level. Why? I wasn't born with the proper engine for the task. If we compare "top-level riders" they all have access to advance training, nutrition, etc. They all train hard. So what separates them from each other?

:

I haven't said that genetics doesn't factor into performance. I'm not delusional. I don't know how old you are, but if you'd been riding since you were a child with that team of best coaches and trainers you mention, and you were dedicating your life to cycling, you very well could have (and probably would have) gone pro. The main genetic quality that indeed distinguishes them from you, and I really mean no offense by this, is a mental one. Despite what you might think, almost nobody has the combination of willpower and free time to undergo what is necessary to get to that level.

 

[mombus]

In relation to the topic, I think the reason he has no shot is not on him, but his team. He might be suited to do it, but Cervelo cannot work hard enough to pull him like Leopard and Liguigas are going to be pulling for their men.

 

[Granville57]

If he did get on the podium he'd probably fall off that as well.

LMAO! I could only hope that his teammates would be there, with champagne, to catch him in their arms.

I haven't said that genetics doesn't factor into performance. I'm not delusional. I don't know how old you are, but if you'd been riding since you were a child with that team of best coaches and trainers you mention, and you were dedicating your life to cycling, you very well could have (and probably would have) gone pro. The main genetic quality that indeed distinguishes them from you, and I really mean no offense by this, is a mental one. Despite what you might think, almost nobody has the combination of willpower and free time to undergo what is necessary to get to that level.

Me? Mid 40's.
I think this would make for a really interesting thread in-and-of itself. I'm going to scour the archives here a bit and see what's already been posted, then probably start a new one in a few days. Thanks for the response.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

If Sastre is too old and fading fast as many said he was last year, then what makes you think somebody who's getting to the same point of his career, has had more injuries and was never as good at his peak will do better?

CVDV got a top 5 in 2008 due to:
- the ride of his life
- being a bit of an unknown quantity as a GC rider
- a not especially mountainous parcours
- a not especially strong or deep field including contenders being thrown out (Riccò), or making major errors (Valverde).

CVDV got a top 10 in 2009 because of:
- good riding + being the last domestique for Wiggins
- a number of better riders - including the previous year's entire podium - having absolute nightmare races (Menchov, Sastre, Evans)
- a parcours that helped the TT-centric at the expense of the climber

In 2011 we have:
- a not especially strong field (positive for CVDV)
- a very mountainous parcours (negative for CVDV)
- VDV's 35th birthday (negative for CVDV)
- Garmin-Cervélo necessarily sticking a lot of their effort onto the sprints (negative for CVDV)
- very little TT mileage (negative for CVDV)
- a team on which he is no longer the sole viable GC option (mixed - could be positive as enables him to escape under the radar of some, but negative as it may take team resources away from helping him in the early days of the race when the GC pattern isn't set)
- lots of short, sharp finishes early on (negative for CVDV, though also for quite a few other GC guys)

All in all, he has the ability to top 10, maybe even top 5 again at a push, but the deck is stacked against him this year, and unless he gets a very nice parcours in the future he'll probably never replicate his 2008 showing.

 

[Sofía_]

No, and i like him! but... no

 

[9000ft]

He wouldn't be my first choice, or second, or third..... but hey, you never know.

 

[The Hitch]

I think it's time to get Martin in the Tour and see what they really have with this kid.

They can see that in the other grand tours. Far better actually since there are more mountains, bigger mountains, and more attacks.

And even though to us it wouldnt be a surprise if he did well there, it would be to most people who for some reason think his cousin is Irelands big contender.

 

[Granville57]

If Sastre is too old and fading fast as many said he was last year, then what makes you think somebody who's getting to the same point of his career, has had more injuries and was never as good at his peak will do better?

Well, my comment regarding Sastre was mostly just me being a jackazz for the purposes of this poll. In all seriousness, I actually have quite a lot of respect for the guy. He won the Tour, so how could I not, really?

But more specifically, I love the way Carlos carries himself: quietly but with incisive honesty. It was reassuring to hear him call out the peloton last year for the mamby pamby love-fest that was threatening to take the fight out of the race.

I also totally agree with his disgust at the lack of respect shown to him, as a previous winner of the Tour, by the race organizers and the press. The obstruction to allow him to wear the Maillot Jaune at the start of the 2009 race, especially after Armstrong's derogatory comments about the quality of the 2008 Tour, and the media's incessant questioning of Carlos about the AC vs LA "rivalry" was another undeserved indignity thrust upon him. His not being invited to the race for 2011 is another slap in the face. As far as I'm concerned, any rider who wins the Tour should have an automatic return invite, regardless of what team he's on. I think it would only be good for both the image and legacy of the Tour itself. Considering what one has to go through the win that race, it seems the very least the event could do is to properly honor it's previous champions.

My favorite line of Sastre's was from the 2009 press conference at the start of the Tour that raised the issue of Armstrong's remarks that the 2008 Tour was "a joke." Carlos' response summed up his character and style beautifully, I thought.

"Well, I believe that is not correct. It is his point of view; his words; his life. I'm not interested in any of that. I think he is a great champion. He won 7 Tours de France, a World Championship, and he is a great rider. But behind every rider must be a person. And on that point, maybe he needs to learn something more."

Classic Carlos.

http://www.cervelo.com/en_us/video-documentaries/#video_headline

 

[Granville57]

In light of this is new interview, I'm just throwin' this out there again.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vande-velde-vies-for-tour-de-france-success

"I'm not going to let these last two years slide. I could easily just ride and do my job but I want these years to be the best I can make them and it's in my nature to think like that. Cycling is just too hard to go through the motions so if I wasn't going to go for it I would just stop."

 

[uphillstruggle]

In 2011 we have:
- a not especially strong field (positive for CVDV)

It's still going to be a pretty strong field. Only Conatdor and Menchov out. Every other tom, **** and harry are targeting the tour this year. Or are you saying the current crop of riders are below par?

@ mombus: are you honestly trying to argue that anyone with the correct training and support could turn pro. If so you are delusional.

 

[roundabout]

It's good to see that he is healthy and motivated.

However i still don't see CVV as the winner.

 

[Dimtick]

CV can crack the top ten but the only way he wins is if the 8 guys ahead of him crash out in a massive pile up.

 

[ferryman]

They can see that in the other grand tours. Far better actually since there are more mountains, bigger mountains, and more attacks.

And even though to us it wouldnt be a surprise if he did well there, it would be to most people who for some reason think his cousin is Irelands big contender.

I'm not sure you meant it but that seems a tad disrespectul to Roche, who has at least mixed it with the big boys in the Tour with some, albeit, modest success.

I'd love to see Martin unleashed though, the potential is there.

And just to stay on topic - CVV - top 10 at best I would think.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It's still going to be a pretty strong field. Only Conatdor and Menchov out. Every other tom, **** and harry are targeting the tour this year. Or are you saying the current crop of riders are below par?

@ mombus: are you honestly trying to argue that anyone with the correct training and support could turn pro. If so you are delusional.

How many of last year's top 10 do you think can WIN the Tour? I'd say 3, maybe 4. And 2 of those won't be there.

Horner won't, he's too old. Hesjedal won't, he's good for another good finish but lacking that last bit of natural ability required. Rodríguez won't, he can't TT for his life. Kreuziger won't - at least not yet. Same goes for Van den Broeck. Gesink maybe, but I'd still write him a level down on Schleck, Menchov, Contador and maybe Sánchez (at least for the time being, though if we'd seen a proper, non-injured TT from him in Toledo at the end of the '09 Vuelta perhaps we could say with more certainty, though Samu had also crashed and injured himself during that race).

Now, we can add people like Evans (who was there but injured) and Basso (who wasn't there) to the list of potential candidates, for sure, and there's always a surprise interloper in the upper echelons of the GC, but I don't think that's as strong, on paper, as the lineup that started in 2009 or 2010.

 

[usedtobefast]

i think The Pickle, will finish ahead of him.

 

[Mambo95]

i think The Pickle, will finish ahead of him.

The Pickle certainly thinks so:

www.cyclingnews.com/news/pickle-dismisses-cvv.html