Can Evans win this giro?

[42x16ss]

At the moment I'm going with options 2 and 3. Highly doubt that Evans can win this with Quintana there, he's just not good enough on the steepest stuff. He'll come close though, should be on the podium on current form, can only see Quintana and maybe Uran beating him right now.

Don't forget that he started the first week of the '11 TdF in top shape too.

 

[IndianCyclist]

I think this year as well he will be on the podium

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

As has been mentioned before by others, I also think that the first time trial will be decisive for his chances. It's a long timetrial that suits his characteristics. Last year in the Tour, in the first Time Trial on Quintana. ALso in the first and longer TT im last years Giro he lost 29 seconds to Wiggins, which isn't bad at all. He also took a minute of Uran in this TT. 3 Minutes should be enough to hold of Uran without many questions I guess.

So considering he's in good shape Quintana should have to gain 3 minutes or more in the mountains. And I think you can hardly give a worse opponent 3 minutes of advantage if he's on good form. But how good his form is we will have to see. Also Quintana never has been in this situation and under that much pressure in a pro race untill now.

But I really have to say that it''s not often the case that the guys I am rooting for are actually winning anything, let alone a Grand Tour. I'd be happy for both of them. So if one of them makes it it's cool for me. So I am hoping that botch are in great form and show as a great battle.

 

[Tigerion]

Of course he can, there wouldn't need to be a poll if it wasn't possible

Will he? Well he has his chance and it will depend on what happens.
Quintana is young and the first time he is in this situation. Youthful exuberance could see him go too deep to fast and then crack on the following day. Or Uran could get a gap on him and he could drag the rest of the contenders back but put himself into red doing so.
Another possibility is Evans getting a break from a small group and Uran and Quintana looking at each other and refusing to work together and let the gap grow.

I think Cadel is a great chance for podium, not sure who of the other riders are going to touch him for 3rd place.

 

[oncehadhair]

Lotta posters here banging on about how Quintana or Uran will beat Evans in the mountains.

Its in the mountains where Evans won Le Tour and Uran was in that race. Qunitana is a different story as he showed some form in last year's tour where Evans looked heavy.

Not saying Evans has the same form as in 2011 but he should have minutes on the above two in the time trial and if he is any sort of shape will stay with them on the climbs.

Can he win? He's certainly in a better position that any of the other serious contenders.

 

[observer]

I think if Cadel can get a little bit more time in the TT or with time bonus, then he can do it. but its pretty much guaranteed that we are going to see some fireworks in the mountains by those who can attack and are close to GC.
Pitty about the big crash yesterday, because I suspect Evans may still have got the time bonus, and with the other still in it would have been great.
But seeing Uran and Quintana go on the attack will also be great.
Pozzovivo and Rolland might also have a bit of a dig.

Apart from the crashes, this is what we are wanting to see.

 

[stefank]

Of course he can win it. Whether he will or not is another matter......

 

[senatorrick]

I sure hope he wins, always liked him!! My only concern is he may tire his team out to soon, Uran is the only one that can challenge, Sorry as much as I like Quintana he's not in form yet ! But it's early.

 

[RichieTheBest]

it depends on injuries quintana got. if evans puts an extra 1'30'' into everyone in TT which is not impossible, his chances will become palpable. the only thing i fear is evans can crack harsly like in the giro 2002 / tour 2010/

 

[SafeBet]

He's got a chance if Quintana crashes out or gets sick.
He probably wouldn't win it anyway, but you can't rule it out.

 

[Pulpstar]

He has a chance, sure, but I don't think he will.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

There's no doubt that Quintana is still the big favorite, but he definitely has a chance. A bigger one than Uran, that is. I can't imagine Uran beating Quintana but Evans has a shot.

I'll definitely be rooting for him!

 

[movingtarget]

The first major MTF usually tells a story. I guess Evans won't convince most until we see how he handles the big mountains and whether he can manage his time losses. Something he is usually good at at. If he gains time in the first time trial especially on Quintana the pressure is back on the younger rider. Evans can ride a bit more conservatively but of course if Quintana climbs like a demon Evans could lose his lead on one stage.

 

[Avoriaz]

Can he win? Sure.
Will he? eh, probably not.

This.

On the upside now he has the gaps the onus is on the other teams and riders to make a race. This means we could see more than sprints in the last 500m on the MTFs.

However, to Evans' benefit, Movistar's chase yesterday looked a tad anaemic, so Quintana could be isolated relatively easily

 

[darwin553]

Sure he can. But it will be ruptures around here when he does!

 

[Jelantik]

With a lot of luck that he is having around, his shot at winning is brighter and brighter.. On paper Quitana will win. But i think his experience... don't know. Yesterday's carnage, people are asking why he won't chase. Maybe he was hurt a bit or he was confidence that he could get his time back in the mountain. He was behind at the TDF too, and ended up on second place.

 

[Flamin]

BMC are doing by far the best job of keeping their leader out of trouble, that's for sure.

 

[ILovecycling]

I sure hope he wins, always liked him!! My only concern is he may tire his team out to soon, Uran is the only one that can challenge, Sorry as much as I like Quintana he's not in form yet ! But it's early.

 

[toolittle]

Cadel is a top-tier cyclists around.
He is only 3 years older than his first TDF win.

Cadel seems to has 90% of his 2011 TDF form.

Only on-form contador or last year foorme could beat him if behind him by 1:30 minutes.

My bet :
1.
Coming ITT, Cadel put 2:00+ to Uran, 1:00+ to Quintana
At the end, Cadel win Giro.
2.
Quintana and Uran can't do any thing big to Cadel.

 

[toolittle]

With a lot of luck that he is having around, his shot at winning is brighter and brighter.. On paper Quitana will win. But i think his experience... don't know. Yesterday's carnage, people are asking why he won't chase. Maybe he was hurt a bit or he was confidence that he could get his time back in the mountain. He was behind at the TDF too, and ended up on second place.

See the ways cadel sprint in last 2 stages.
He gave the best path to riders behind.
So, I predict he may wait and take Pink jersey after stage 12.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Cadel is a top-tier cyclists around.
He is only 3 years older than his first TDF win.

Cadel seems to has 90% of his 2011 TDF form.

Only on-form contador or last year foorme could beat him if behind him by 1:30 minutes.

My bet :
1.
Coming ITT, Cadel put 2:00+ to Uran, 1:00+ to Quintana
At the end, Cadel win Giro.
2.
Quintana and Uran can't do any thing big to Cadel.

what?

 

[toolittle]

I don't see much belief here in Cadel and I'm surprised.
He already has a comfortable advantage which is likely to grow after the first tt, he's not bad at all in the mountains (especially when he just has to ride defensively), he's obviously excellently prepared and has experience of winning the GT, and maybe the most important - I'm not convinced Quintana or Uran or anyone else can take 3+ minutes on him. Maybe if Quintana repeats his Tour performance, but I doubt he'll hit that form in the last week.
So, it's Evans' race to lose at the moment, imo.

Look at the mountains of this giro.
All MTFs come after a long downhill. And last climbs are not super long.

Look at Cadel' team. On form Steve and downhill monster Samuel.
Cadel must always in good position to start all last MTFs.

So, all the benefits and backgrounds... Cadel race to loss.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Look at the mountains of this giro.
All MTFs come after a long downhill. And last climbs are not super long.

Look at Cadel' team. On form Steve and downhill monster Samuel.
Cadel must always in good position for all last MTFs.

So, all the benefits and backgrounds... Cadel race to loss.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY0CA-vtf7Y

Quintana says hi

 

[Afrank]

He can win it the same way he won the Tour, always being there, never having a serious problem, and being consistent. But it's still very early. Anything that happens at this point doesn't mean much. The race will be decided in the 3rd week. And it's no guarantee Evans will definitely stay consistent and not have any trouble over the coming weeks. Many riders are a good chunk of time back from him already and they will be looking to attack when they hit the big mountains.

So, yes its possible. But he'll have to stay consistent, out of trouble, and most importantly will have to match attacks from Quintana, Uran, Pozzovivo, Aru, Majka, plus others.

IMO he'll podium, but it won't be the top step.

 

[Miburo]

Where do people get the info that Cadel is in such good shape?

Ok he's riding good right now, but the stages he rode good are his speciality. He loves those kinda stages.

Has he proven us anything in the big MTF's? No.

When was the last time he proved something there? 2011. Keep in mind that except for that tour Evans always had a terrible day in a GT.

Who is top 3 best climber in the world? Quintana for sure top 3.

So based on what can Evans even think of following Quintana?

Please don't come with the bs that quintana doesn't look good, those weren't his kinda stages, way too easy. I remember that people said nibali looked bad last year too in those first stages.