Can Evans win this giro?

[toolittle]

Please understand.

"Last climb after a super fast racing" is different from "Last climb after a relaxed riding."

Last year, Sky Train set super fast pace EVERYDAY EVERYWHERE.
Others GC riders tried or dropped before last 5km.

See this Movistar and the mix of possible fast climbers.

Could they set a fast pace to upset Cadel?

If Q & U go away hard before Stelvio, Q & U will see a group of relatively fresh riders again before last climb.

 

[Jelantik]

so far it's true that Cadel looks really good compare to other GC. Starting with the beginning by putting time in TTT. His team rode on the front most of the day and he is the only GC benefit from yesterday's carnage. He is on form and luck is in his side so far too. He has been riding smart and keep taking time whenever possible.

Quintana on paper is still the strongest. But he hasn't gotten his Giro start as good as Cadel. So far he kept loosing time. Uran wasn't that bad. Majka is quitely sitting on top 4 so far. I hope Majka can keep up with Quintana in the mountain. Tomorrow we'll see, if Quintana start chipping his deficit and we'll see how Cadel's climbing leg. But he does look like he got his 2011 form.

 

[Jspear]

Tomorrow will be very interesting. We will see how the GC guys have recovered since yesterdays crashes. Cadel might have an edge since he was one of the few who stayed safe.

 

[movingtarget]

Where do people get the info that Cadel is in such good shape?

Ok he's riding good right now, but the stages he rode good are his speciality. He loves those kinda stages.

Has he proven us anything in the big MTF's? No.

When was the last time he proved something there? 2011. Keep in mind that except for that tour Evans always had a terrible day in a GT.

Who is top 3 best climber in the world? Quintana for sure top 3.

So based on what can Evans even think of following Quintana?

Please don't come with the bs that quintana doesn't look good, those weren't his kinda stages, way too easy. I remember that people said nibali looked bad last year too in those first stages.

Yeah I think it's too early to tell. Looking at the GC after the first ITT will tell a lot more as will the first serious MTF in the final week. No one doubts Evan's experience and tactics but will he have the legs to hold off much younger riders albeit better climbers in the third week ? He might be able to have one bad day in the mountains if the first TT is a really good one but when he usually has one bad day in the mountains he has a few. It's his consistency that has always been his strong point and his grit. If he is near the lead and has the legs he is hard to get rid of.

 

[greenedge]

it depends on injuries quintana got. if evans puts an extra 1'30'' into everyone in TT which is not impossible, his chances will become palpable. the only thing i fear is evans can crack harsly like in the giro 2002 / tour 2010/

He'd crashed the stage before

 

[movingtarget]

He'd crashed the stage before

Not sure why people keep mentioning the 2002 Giro. 12 years ago and one of Evan's first attempts at a GT. Things have changed a little since then as has Evans.

 

[gunara]

The noise this season Contador with 2011 Giro form, Evans with 2011 Tour form, too bad Torku will not be in any grand tour

 

[Netserk]

Evans will blow up one of the days in the mountains like he did on Plateau de Beille '07.

 

[darwin553]

Not sure why people keep mentioning the 2002 Giro. 12 years ago and one of Evan's first attempts at a GT. Things have changed a little since then as has Evans.

Citing examples that are eight years apart doesn't really help establish a pattern

 

[argyllflyer]

Unless the superior climbers start to demonstrate their superiority on Cat 1 climbs, it's a yes.

 

[cineteq]

unless the superior climbers start to demonstrate their superiority on cat 1 climbs, it's a yes.

ˆˆˆthisˆˆˆˆ

 

[UlleGigo]

Hey but Kelderman put 2 seconds into him. He's the real deal now

 

[Akuryo]

People forgetting about Uran? He is only 57 sec down and has looked strong.

I thought the same thing. But Uran will be happy with Evans in pink for now. OPQS has not the manpower to handle pink for two weeks. Movistar/BMC have. So Rigo will patiently wait until next week and take over. Not a prediction, just a guess/hope.

 

[Escarabajo]

Please understand.

"Last climb after a super fast racing" is different from "Last climb after a relaxed riding."

Last year, Sky Train set super fast pace EVERYDAY EVERYWHERE.
Others GC riders tried or dropped before last 5km.

See this Movistar and the mix of possible fast climbers.

Could they set a fast pace to upset Cadel?

If Q & U go away hard before Stelvio, Q & U will see a group of relatively fresh riders again before last climb.

You are over analyzing this. Is not that complicated. If Uran, Quintana and others (2-3 riders maybe) are in good shape, then I say no. If they are not then I say yes, it is a possibility.

 

[SergeDeM]

Last year Evans had more than 1min over Uran before the first ITT and more than 2min after the ITT, which was much flatter and longer than this year's ITT. Still, Uran beat him by over a minute in the end and it would've been much more had the mountains not been cancelled. I even think that with the mountains he wouldn't have been top 5.

Cadel looks just like last year. Good on paper but when the MTFs come around he'll be left behind.

 

[dlwssonic]

really depends on the weather in the mountains...
well at least the dream is still alive now

 

[argyllflyer]

Last year Evans had more than 1min over Uran before the first ITT and more than 2min after the ITT, which was much flatter and longer than this year's ITT. Still, Uran beat him by over a minute in the end and it would've been much more had the mountains not been cancelled. I even think that with the mountains he wouldn't have been top 5.

Cadel looks just like last year. Good on paper but when the MTFs come around he'll be left behind.

To be fair, we've just had one!

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

To be fair, we've just had one!

that was won by Ulissi.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

that was won by Ulissi.

Yeah, Ulissi, who was dropped on the frikking Carpegna.

And if you watched closely, Evans did definately not look at ease most of the time. Hell he lost time in the sprint to Kelderman for goodness sake

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yeah, Ulissi, who was dropped on the frikking Carpegna.

And if you watched closely, Evans did definately not look at ease most of the time. Hell he lost time in the sprint to Kelderman for goodness sake

So did Pozzovivo and Uran...your point is?

Evans looked strong on the climb...you have to take it in the context of Evans with respect to how he looks on the bike and his condition.

 

[SergeDeM]

To be fair, we've just had one!

In the first week where nobody wants to go on the attack. When the real mountains show up Evans will not.

 

[PirazziAttacksVino]

“I’m not scared I’m in good form too early, I went to the GIro di Trentino [which he won - Ed.] with the aim of progressing towards a peak of form in the third week. If I want to win the Giro I’m going to have be in good form then.”

If he'll be able to peak in the third week, meaning he'll be stronger than now, the GC battle should get interesting. But as we've seen last year, his recovery is not his best quality at this moment in his career.

 

[murali]

I thought the same thing. But Uran will be happy with Evans in pink for now. OPQS has not the manpower to handle pink for two weeks. Movistar/BMC have. So Rigo will patiently wait until next week and take over. Not a prediction, just a guess/hope.

Anyone doubting OPQS firepower is....well, pessimistic.

Having said that, neither Uran nor Quintana seem to be in much of a hurry. But i guess the real attack from the Colombians will come on stage 14&15, after the 42km TT.

Today is likely to be another day for riders to lose time, not for contenders to gain imho.

 

[Rollthedice]

After last year's Horner Vuelta Show I wouldn't be surprised if a junior compared to Horner, that is Cadel, can keep up for three weeks. Evans in yesterday's shape with a 2 minute lead can win the Giro. I think the key is to not crack when it matters most, in the last hard week. Whether he is capable remains to be seen but I think he already secured a podium finish if nothing exceptional happens.

 

[Butterhead]

He can, if his contenders keep riding like girls.