Can Rodriguez win the Vuelta?

[vcampbell]

come on guys - some of you cant see the wood for the trees. Rodriguez is clearly in the best rider in this vuelta - the course couldnt suit him better if he designed it himself. wouldnt be surprised if he's still in the lead after the TT as he's clearly in great form. Like wiggo in le tour, only disaster can stop him imo.

What? Only one week is gone from this Vuelta and you saying that it is in his bag? What kind of fanboy/girl are you? There is still 2 week, and the hardest part comes only now, the great moutains which suits more to Froome or Contador, than Rodriguez.

 

[Cimber]

come on guys - some of you cant see the wood for the trees. Rodriguez is clearly in the best rider in this vuelta - the course couldnt suit him better if he designed it himself. wouldnt be surprised if he's still in the lead after the TT as he's clearly in great form. Like wiggo in le tour, only disaster can stop him imo.

No the 1st week couldnt have been designed better for him: explosive climbs and short mountains. Now the real stuff begins, which doesnt play into his hands: TT and long mountains.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

That was my first thought too, that I should start a thread with the title "Can Noval win the Vuelta?", and the answers could have been "Yes", and "Vino/Other".

Bad question is bad. He can, but he will not.

I more or less agree (without the thoughts of starting threads) yes he can. I didn't vote, because I'd vote yes on any poll like that.

He did win the first 1/3 ! Don't profess to know enough to prognosticate, but pulling for AC to continue to make it awesome and eventually throw down the gauntlet and win. But AC hasn't looked on his A game.

 

[Cookster15]

Rodriguez strength is where he can apply an anaerobic attack of relatively short duration to gain up to 30 secs or so on summit finishes - we saw that in the Giro (stage 20 to Stelvio). On longer climbs ridden at high tempo he cannot sustain the effort - we also saw that in the Giro (stage 19 to Alpe di Pampeago). If Contador and others with proven pedigree come good in the latter half of the Vuelta Rodriguez will suffer, get dropped and loose time.

 

[learn to ride]

hope he could win.

 

[trompe le monde]

I hope he can manage to not hemorrhage too much time on Wednesday. I've warmed up to Purito the last few seasons as he was somewhat overshadowed by Valverde when he was at Caisse.

He's having a great season so far, and to win La Vuelta would be a nice way to cap it off, though that's stating the rather obvious.

 

[Viking]

No the 1st week couldnt have been designed better for him: explosive climbs and short mountains. Now the real stuff begins, which doesnt play into his hands: TT and long mountains.

Agreed. Though I don't think the TT is going to be as big of a problem for him as is commonly thought. It's not like the TT in 2010 (which may have had a grand total of 10 meters of climbing). There's this sharp little climb right in the middle which suits Purito pretty nicely. And he seems to be TTing much better now than he used to.

But those big mountains are still looming, and that's where he's most likely to suffer a big loss.

 

[airstream]

Purito already dropped a few times in this vuelta and Froome/Contador are from another league than the ones in the giro.

but the leagues are not static and class can be equalled, especially if guys from a higher échelon are not prepared perfectly that we are observing. the situation is purito is very likely to win the stage 12, getting probably about 5-10 sec by pure time. i for myself was quite surprised on sunday, when contador and froome again let him go without resistance. joaquim improved in all components and naturally won't lose in tt disastrously a lot. if he will be able to match his giro climbing level, to think that contador (froome) will start dropping him on a regular basis is rather optimistic. and yet i'd notice purito rides very smartly all mountain stages this season like no one else. seems like he wasted nary effort in vain.

 

[maestro01]

I think it will be over after wednesday, I think he'll lose a good 2-3 minutes to froome.

 

[cineteq]

I think it will be over after wednesday, I think he'll lose a good 2-3 minutes to froome.

you're in luck, that's what people who only read newspapers say

 

[maestro01]

you're in luck, that's what people who only read newspapers say

Did you not see the time trial at the Giro, he lost all his lead on Hesjedal at the first check point and finished nearly a minute behind him.

And Hesjedal finished over 4 minutes behind froome at the olympics!

 

[willbick]

the giro TT was flat. the vuelta TT has a grand total of about 8 miles flat and then goes up and down a hill which is obviously good for purito. And froome is obviously a better TTer than hesjedal but i cant believe ryder was trying 100% in the olympic TT - i mean the chances of him winning a medal were 0

 

[webvan]

He can but probably won't. If it was either Froome or Contador, maybe, but both of them cracking is unlikely. It would be good to see hom not collapse in a real mountain stage at least.

 

[Panda Claws]

Did you not see the time trial at the Giro, he lost all his lead on Hesjedal at the first check point and finished nearly a minute behind him.

And Hesjedal finished over 4 minutes behind froome at the olympics!

Since when was Hesjedal in top form at the olympics?

 

[airstream]

has anything changed?

 

[willbick]

come on guys - some of you cant see the wood for the trees. Rodriguez is clearly in the best rider in this vuelta - the course couldnt suit him better if he designed it himself. wouldnt be surprised if he's still in the lead after the TT as he's clearly in great form. Like wiggo in le tour, only disaster can stop him imo.

come on purito!!

 

[Viking]

has anything changed?

I think so. For me, it means he has a better chance of winning. Others might suddenly think he has a shot to win, since he didn't get killed in the TT.

 

[Netserk]

has anything changed?

no. Contador will still win

 

[SafeBet]

Nothing changed. This is still valid:

This year he's been a much better time trialist, so I don't believe he will be too far from the roja after wednesday.

My prediction:
- race hard from the beginning in stages with multiple climbs (I know there are just two) and he'll eventually fade.
- soft pedal until the last climb hoping to drop him and he'll probably hang on.

 

[the asian]

Purito will definitely podium! Most probably another 2nd place.

 

[webvan]

After today's ITT he certainly deserves to podium but if there are big fights early in the mountain stages between Bertie and Froomey he'll probably crack at some point.

 

[airstream]

everything depends on how much alberto is able to improve. if not that much - purito has a good chance.

 

[Miburo]

everything depends on how much alberto is able to improve. if not that much - purito has a good chance.

Contador doesn't need to improve. Now the stages with more and longer climbs come and if i remember correctly purito already had to drop a few times but at that moment Contador didn't care about him.

He was no threat, now it's different though. So I bet he will ride when purito drops.

 

[airstream]

Contador doesn't need to improve. Now the stages with more and longer climbs come and if i remember correctly purito already had to drop a few times but at that moment Contador didn't care about him.

He was no threat, now it's different though. So I bet he will ride when purito drops.

nonetheless, how much did contador gain on rodriguez in the mountains by pure time so far?

 

[webvan]

Yes so far we've had mountain sprints really, multiple climbs are a different beast, look at what happened on the Toussuire stage, who could have predicted it.