Can Sagan win the 2012 TdF points Jersey?

[karlboss]

It started in the Cali thread, but I think it's worthy of it's own.


Depends on so many things, but I think he's in with a shot. Can win on Gilbert type finishes, can place high in bunch sprints, can win reduced bunch sprints, and could have a dig at intermediates.

So what do you guys think?

 

[CQmanager]

I hope so because the way Cav is winning is boring. Sagan is much more versatile and exciting to watch

 

[bicycle_rack]

 

[42x16ss]

This year? Probably not but would be great to see him try, should come close!

Next year or 2014, yes - the kid is so versatile it's frightening.

 

[orangerider]

It is difficult when the team needs to chase down breakaways to gain points and destroy the pure sprinters (namely Cavendish), while also supporting Nibali for the GC. It is also a long race and some questions arise to Sagan's ability to recover for such a long fast paced stage race.

 

[Kwibus]

Ofcourse he can, but it all depends on how many flat stages Cavendish wins and if he can finish top3 often in those pure flat stages.

Right now it's more likely Cavendish wins it. If he's positioned decently he simply wins.

 

[maxmartin]

well if GOSS, GREIPLE, KITTLE can steal a few flat stages, things would be interesting

Ofcourse he can, but it all depends on how many flat stages Cavendish wins and if he can finish top3 often in those pure flat stages.

Right now it's more likely Cavendish wins it. If he's positioned decently he simply wins.

 

[42x16ss]

well if GOSS, GREIPLE, KITTLE can steal a few flat stages, things would be interesting

That isn't out of the question. Cav will have most of his team working for Wiggins instead and EBH will be chancing his arm on the intermediate stages like he did so well last year.

In comparison, Goss and Kittel will have strong, focused sprint trains. They won't beat Cavendish too often but they should steal a few stages.

 

[greenedge]

I would love to see him try but i think Goss will get the green jersey ( like Hushovd did in 09 ).

He definitely could if he focused on it but he might have to help Nibali on a few stages though so that lessens his chances.

 

[Havetts]

It will all depend on how many sprints Cav isnt strong enough for after a hilly parcours/finish and if Sagan has the speed to win/podium the normal flat sprints.

 

[Lexman]

First things first : will he participate?

Then it depends of course if his interests will be compatible with those of Nibali?

Pure on quality : yes he can : can win bunch sprints and can get a lot of points in the medium mountain stages

 

[roundabout]

That would depend on the exact route.

Stages 1, 3 and 12 are the best bets to score points over flat sprinters.

Then I have read rumors about tricky last kms in Metz and Rouen but I would have to check if that's the case.

And a stage to Porrentruy where it also realistic that Sagan can gain points.

Probably won't be enough. Especially with Gilbert and Valverde (possibly) going after the same finishes

 

[El Pistolero]

He's going to dominate the green jersey competition like Zabel did in his years. Maybe not this year, but definitely in the years to come. Too bad they changed the point system, but Sagan is good enough to deal with silly rules changed in favor of a certain type of rider as well.

 

[blaxland]

It started in the Cali thread, but I think it's worthy of it's own.


Depends on so many things, but I think he's in with a shot. Can win on Gilbert type finishes, can place high in bunch sprints, can win reduced bunch sprints, and could have a dig at intermediates.

So what do you guys think?

As you have already said karlboss,it would mostly depend on his condition and motivation for wanting to win green?But he could definantley win the overall if the course was also slightly in his favour.(More medium mtn stages.)This years giro could be his coming?

 

[will10]

He'd need a harder sprint parcours, like in 2011. Looking at how close Gilbert got before running out of steam on the "proper" sprint stages, then Sagan could be up there.

 

[Richeypen]

As you have already said karlboss,it would mostly depend on his condition and motivation for wanting to win green?But he could definantley win the overall if the course was also slightly in his favour.(More medium mtn stages.)This years giro could be his coming?

I dont understand

 

[Bavarianrider]

With the old system easily. With the new one it's almost impossible to beat the top pure sprinters. The system simply favors guys like Cavendish way too much.

 

[brilleaben]

Can Sagan win the 201x TdF mountains Jersey?

 

[cineteq]

First things first : will he participate?

Then it depends of course if his interests will be compatible with those of Nibali?

He will participate in TdF, it's a fact! Nibali wants him in the team. And yes he can win the green jersey this very year. I don't see Cavendish winning the jersey ever again, and Greipel should be the his only hurdle.

 

[Caruut]

Don't think Cav cares enough about the green jersey to go hell for leather like he used to. He'll be about stage wins, now, I think.

Sagan - of course he can win it. Will he? Probably not. Goss this year, possibly. Sagan is way too good to be busting a nut every July for the green jersey though. Would prefer it if he tried to peak in Spring and Autumn and forget July. He has all the attributes to be one of the best classics racers ever.

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

With the old system easily. With the new one it's almost impossible to beat the top pure sprinters. The system simply favors guys like Cavendish way too much.

Cav was actually the only pure sprinter to finish in the top 6 last year. It only favours a pure sprinter if they are able to win almost all of the flat stages. I'd hardly say it was unfair that Cav was able to beat Rojas, who basically did naff all on the whole tour.

 

[will10]

Cav was actually the only pure sprinter to finish in the top 6 last year. It only favours a pure sprinter if they are able to win almost all of the flat stages. I'd hardly say it was unfair that Cav was able to beat Rojas, who basically did naff all on the whole tour.

Rojas was consistant, which is what the green jersey is about. He was also much more versatile than Cav, which is why he was up there - didn't see Cav finishing 4th on Mont des Alouettes, or 11th on Mûr-de-Bretagne...

 

[El Pistolero]

Don't think Cav cares enough about the green jersey to go hell for leather like he used to. He'll be about stage wins, now, I think.

Sagan - of course he can win it. Will he? Probably not. Goss this year, possibly. Sagan is way too good to be busting a nut every July for the green jersey though. Would prefer it if he tried to peak in Spring and Autumn and forget July. He has all the attributes to be one of the best classics racers ever.

You can win the classics and the green jersey.... It's perfectly possible to peak in April and July.

 

[El Pistolero]

Cav was actually the only pure sprinter to finish in the top 6 last year. It only favours a pure sprinter if they are able to win almost all of the flat stages. I'd hardly say it was unfair that Cav was able to beat Rojas, who basically did naff all on the whole tour.

Says more about the sprinter competition than anything else. Also, the route that year had a lot of stages for the puncheurs.

 

[kanari]

I think he'll win it easily if he gets to freedom to go for it and is motivated to do so. He is underrated in the flat sprints I think. IMO only Cav, Greipel and Kittel are definitely faster and I'm not even sure about the last two. So he could get several top 3 in the flat sprints plus picking loads of points in harder stages. He's like Hushovd except better in everything so if Thor could win it he can as well even though the new points system is less favourable for him.

He will also be allowed to go in breaks on harder stages as Sky can't afford to defend the green jersey there, they'll need to consentrate on Wiggins.