Can Voeckler win this? Serious?

[Alpe d'Huez]

I'm actually rooting for the guy too. Why not? He's showing more guts than anyone else, and riding smart.

I think they will likely crack him at some point in the Alps, IF they change strategy. I think if teams can ride a very fast pace up the climbs there, they can drop him. But if we end up with short little attacks and counter attacks and games like we saw today, it benefits him, plus it plays into his riding style actually. If the others want to play this game and take their chances that they can top him at the ITT, I'd love to see him overcome that.

 

[Moller]

As things stand Vockler currently has more time over Evans, than Evans took out of Vockler in the same Grenoble tt in the Dauphine.
The way people are talking it's as if Tommy was hanging on today! how many times did he chase down Basso and Schleck about 6, I think.
Assuming he climbs like he did today, he isn't going to loose 2 mins to evans on the galibier and certainly not on alpe d'huez if he starts it in yellow.
I'd imagine that if he starts the tt with the yellow jersey he'll do a better ride than he did in the dauphine, so if he still has 2 mins on Evans, yes, he can win.

 

[Moller]

As things stand Vockler currently has more time over Evans, than Evans took out of Vockler in the same Grenoble tt in the Dauphine.
The way people are talking it's as if Tommy was hanging on today! how many times did he chase down Basso and Schleck about 6, I think.
Assuming he climbs like he did today, he isn't going to loose 2 mins to evans on the galibier and certainly not on alpe d'huez if he starts it in yellow.
I'd imagine that if he starts the tt with the yellow jersey he'll do a better ride than he did in the dauphine, so if he still has 2 mins on Evans, yes, he can win.

It's also not inconceivable that Vockler and Evans could take time from the schlecks and basso on the extremely technical downhill finish on Wednesday.

 

[movingtarget]

No, even though he has ridden a superb race. The stop start attacks have suited him in the Pyrenees. The Schlecks have to put time into Evans next week and if Contador regains his legs, he also has to make up time on Evans. Sanchez and Basso also have to lay it on the line. They now know that Voeckler is in great form and thay have to get rid of him. Voeckler may not lose all of his time advantage but he will lose the majority of it before the TT I think.

 

[Jeanne]

At this point, I'll root for anyone who is willing to give 100% and catalyze a selection among the strongest 12 riders.

+ 1000000; couldn't agree more

 

[Sophistic]

Depends on if L-Trek change their strategy, if they continue to put all their energy into dropping the sprinters early rather than going nuts at the bottom of the last climb, he might have a shot. What LT did on stage 14 was one of the worst team tactics ive ever seen, wasting 2 guys in the break and the rest to chase the break. The gc guys didnt suffer a bit from the pace they set early and they didnt do any damage at the last climb.

 

[Ratatosk]

It's also not inconceivable that Vockler and Evans could take time from the schlecks and basso on the extremely technical downhill finish on Wednesday.

I noticed Gilbert lost 9 minutes on Plateau and expect him to blitz one of the two descent finishes. If I was Voeckler (or Cuddles or Sammy for that matter) I'd try and follow him. Ideal opportunity to gap the Schlecks.

 

[movingtarget]

I noticed Gilbert lost 9 minutes on Plateau and expect him to blitz one of the two descent finishes. If I was Voeckler (or Cuddles or Sammy for that matter) I'd try and follow him. Ideal opportunity to gap the Schlecks.

I agree, especially Sanchez who is one of the best descenders around. The Gap stage after the rest day looks ideal for him as the finish is not that far from the top of the climb. They can't keep letting Sanchez make up time as he is a good time trialler.

 

[Square-pedaller]

L'Equipe have a poll on their home page (anyone can vote) whether Voeckler can win the Tour. About 11,000 votes at the moment, split almost 50:50 yes:no.

 

[sublimit]

Only Evans can beat him IMO, Contador wont get the 4 minutes back and the Schlecks are too cautious and just have this annoying stop - start way of riding on the climbs.

Voeckler needs to stick to Cadel Evans like glue and get dragged up the climbs and then do the ITT of his life. Rolland is going well also so thats a big plus for him.

 

[dlwssonic]

Only Evans can beat him IMO, Contador wont get the 4 minutes back and the Schlecks are too cautious and just have this annoying stop - start way of riding on the climbs.

Voeckler needs to stick to Cadel Evans like glue and get dragged up the climbs and then do the ITT of his life. Rolland is going well also so thats a big plus for him.

evans is aware of how strong voeckler is so he will make it hard for voeckler in the alps.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

evans is aware of how strong voeckler is so he will make it hard for voeckler in the alps.

And how exactly will he do that? He doesn't really have the team to make a race hard. His teammates are capable of protecting him, but making a race hard is asking too much. And the risk of blowing himself up by attacking early is too big for Evans to risk it. He might profit from someone else making the race hard, but he sure won't be doing it himself. And he shouldn't have to either. If the Schlecks want to win, they need to get rid of both Voeckler and Evans. So it is up to them to make the race hard. The Schlecks, Samu, Basso and Contador all need to win time on both Evans and Voeckler if they want to get to the podium, let alone win.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I didn't understand the waiting game from the beginning. I've noticed from the beginning of the year that Voeckler is really strong this season. In the Dauphine already around the top 10 level on good days.

By waiting and watching eachother in the first 2 pyrenees they have missed opportunities and that was stupid. Now they only have 2 mtf's left to gain time (schlecks+contador mainly). Evans is in position to wait for the TT although I do think he needs to be 45 seconds closer.

We'll see in the alps, but they gave Voeckler hope as well. If they don't do it on Galibier/Alpe d'Huez... well, Voeckler might get a shock win.
Rather him than the Schlecks anyway

 

[dlwssonic]

And how exactly will he do that? He doesn't really have the team to make a race hard. His teammates are capable of protecting him, but making a race hard is asking too much. And the risk of blowing himself up by attacking early is too big for Evans to risk it. He might profit from someone else making the race hard, but he sure won't be doing it himself. And he shouldn't have to either. If the Schlecks want to win, they need to get rid of both Voeckler and Evans. So it is up to them to make the race hard. The Schlecks, Samu, Basso and Contador all need to win time on both Evans and Voeckler if they want to get to the podium, let alone win.

wasnt talking about BMC was talking about evans. He did put in a few digs at the front in stage 12 and 14. But he will do it eventhough there is the risk of himself blowing up. However like you said its more likely that the schlecks will put in a good attack and evans and the schlecks will gain time on voeckler.

 

[K-0tic]

And how exactly will he do that? He doesn't really have the team to make a race hard. His teammates are capable of protecting him, but making a race hard is asking too much. And the risk of blowing himself up by attacking early is too big for Evans to risk it. He might profit from someone else making the race hard, but he sure won't be doing it himself. And he shouldn't have to either. If the Schlecks want to win, they need to get rid of both Voeckler and Evans. So it is up to them to make the race hard. The Schlecks, Samu, Basso and Contador all need to win time on both Evans and Voeckler if they want to get to the podium, let alone win.

Exactly, it's not Evans who will do it himself but he will just count on others (as in his old days) do to the job for him. Whole Leopard team now knows they need to attack and Evans has to stay with Andy and Frank. It will still be hard for Cadel as we will probaby see on the Alpe D'Huez.

 

[Virenque]

If he keeps his form, who should stop him?

The answer clearly is: Evans, Basso and Contador at TT on the penultimate day (if not before). True mountains stages so far have been incredibly boring without any real "push" from the main GC contenders. Once any of them will really decide to go, Voeckler will stay behind.
I say all that despite that I would love to see Thommy keeping the Yellow until Paris!

But Voeckler's case looks a bit similar to the Cunego's one when he won the Giro...with one difference....there was only one and hilly TT at that Giro so he managed to keep his lead.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Voeckler will crack in the final week. He had a stellar day on Plateau de Beille and rode very well on Luz but I don't see him holding on. A top 5 is likely unless he bonks massively.

 

[The Hitch]

Voeckler will crack in the final week. He had a stellar day on Plateau de Beille and rode very well on Luz but I don't see him holding on. A top 5 is likely unless he bonks massively.

He will go into LAlpe with the yellow, and lose 16 minutes on that final stage

 

[auscyclefan94]

He will go into LAlpe with the yellow, and lose 16 minutes on that final stage

I personally don't see the stage to Pinerolo to be overly descisive, the stage to the Gailbier will be brutal though the final climb will suit the non pure climbers with it's rather tame gradients but the stage to the Alpe will be brutal!

 

[dlwssonic]

I personally don't see the stage to Pinerolo to be overly descisive, the stage to the Gailbier will be brutal though the final climb will suit the non pure climbers with it's rather tame gradients but the stage to the Alpe will be brutal!

A good scenario for evans will be the schlecks attack or go hard so that voeckler will lose time. evans might not be able to stick with them but he can limit his losses. evans will gain the time from voeckler and the schlecks in the TT.

 

[Ratatosk]

He will go into LAlpe with the yellow, and lose 16 minutes on that final stage

If Voeckler, in yellow, cracks on the Alpe, beware of the crowd.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

He will attack on the downhills to Gap and Pinerolo and get enough margin that way.

I am 100% serious.

agreed, also voeckler is a100% mental rider. I'm sure he could pull of a pantani timetrial if he needed to

 

[jens_attacks]

evans won't gain more than 20-30 seconds in the itt against voeckler.tommy will fly on that course,knowing all the country will support him.

 

[mulletCobra]

I wonder if some crazy fan will pull a Tonya Harding?

 

[yetanothergreenworld]

Well, I'd love to see TV win; but what I'd love to see more is for France to finally, finally have a real GC contender again. How this talent drought has gone on for so long baffles explanation. Therefore I find Rolland's performances to be the real revelation here. He was pegged for big things a couple of years back, and finally seems to be delivering. He could have stayed with the leaders on L-A if he hadn't been on domestique duty; hopefully, if Tommy V cracks next week, he'll give Rolland the go-ahead to ride his own race.