northernsong said:
Froome’s trying to pull off a very difficult thing, win a race he’s never won which is forcing him to alter his approach to the season then keep the level needed to then win the race he has historically targeted while at the same time fighting a positive drug test all at an age (32-33) where athletes typically start to tail off. He could pull it off but if the competition shows up he could be in trouble.
With the positive test, Froome’s late career is suddenly starting to feel a bit like late career Contador, a wounded champion determined to not give in. The difference is, Contador’s decline in results (TDF) was accelerated by Froome’s ascent. I’m not sure there’s anyone in the peloton (rider or team) that is quite ready to rise to the challenge. But the good news for fans is that this year it doesn’t need to be one guy. It can be one guy in the Giro and another in the Tour. Froome’s taking a huge gamble, which you have to respect (ignoring the clinic stuff for a minute). Winning the Giro-Tour double would cap his run of dominance but losing might speed up its end.
Contadors decline in results in the Tour isn't even due to the rise of Froome. It's due to his own decline and due crashing in every Tour. As for Froome's decline, it's not like he has any margin to play with, and as soon as Sky have better options, I don't think he'll get to lead the team anymore. Sky saved his behind a number of times, and I don't think we can blindly assume Froome can do what an ageing Contador could on a weak team. The last 3 GTs Froome has won, he's also been greatly aided by main opponents missing their peak entirely, cause it's not like he's had the top climbing performances of the year in either 2016 or 2017.
It's not certain Froome can still handle peak Quintana, who's not declining any time soon. Egan Bernal might set the new standard in a year or 2. Tom Dumoulin has quickly become a superior TT'er with great climbing ability in top shape. Grand Tours will start with smaller teams from now on, and that's not gonna help team Sky. It's not like there's nobody to wack Froome of his spot.