for sure froome is able to win next year's tour. being vulnerable under pressure exerted by fresh roglic and dimoulin, who exceeds all expectations, shouldn't get rid him of.
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Froome wants the 5th one. And Sky have no reason to assume Thomas is better than a fresh Froome. I think Bernal is too untested to straight up lead the biggest budget team what I assume to be his 2nd GT in a Tour de France.
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You will definitely be right some day, but he’s still got another year left on the evidence of this season. Brailsford’s ‘2 years left at the top’ prediction after last years Vuelta will be correct.
Valv.Piti said:
You will definitely be right some day, but he’s still got another year left on the evidence of this season. Brailsford’s ‘2 years left at the top’ prediction after last years Vuelta will be correct.
Dumo and Roglic are the best at this moment. Now Roglic knows that he can.
Bernal has an outside change only because his outstanding climbing and his youth.
Bernal has an outside change only because his outstanding climbing and his youth.
rick james
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It’s took Froome having 4 grand tours in his legs for them to beat him, next year when it’s just the tour for Froome he will be back to normalEscarabajo said:
Re: Re:
And what's the normal? 2016 Tour? 2017 Tour? Both were comfortable but not dominant wins, and he won't have that kind of advantage in TTTs and ITTs again. And he'll be 34 with more mileage yadayadayada.
Don't get me wrong. He'll be a favorite to win the race. But he won't be head and shoulders above everyone else. And I also don't think he'll be the only leader. And if Thomas extended before the Tour, I wonder if they made any agreements on what he'd ride in 2018 beforehand.
My guess is Froome and Bernal to the Tour, Thomas and Poels to the Giro, and that is if Poels even wants to be back up leader for the Giro. I think the differences in ability between Froome and Bernal would be tactically more advantageous than bringing both Thomas and Froome to lead again.
Lastly, I wonder how Sivakov will develop. He was nowhere earlier in the year, but he was slowly coming through in Suisse too.
4 in a row doesn't matter. It's the sole result of doing both the Giro and the Tour.rick james said:
And what's the normal? 2016 Tour? 2017 Tour? Both were comfortable but not dominant wins, and he won't have that kind of advantage in TTTs and ITTs again. And he'll be 34 with more mileage yadayadayada.
Don't get me wrong. He'll be a favorite to win the race. But he won't be head and shoulders above everyone else. And I also don't think he'll be the only leader. And if Thomas extended before the Tour, I wonder if they made any agreements on what he'd ride in 2018 beforehand.
My guess is Froome and Bernal to the Tour, Thomas and Poels to the Giro, and that is if Poels even wants to be back up leader for the Giro. I think the differences in ability between Froome and Bernal would be tactically more advantageous than bringing both Thomas and Froome to lead again.
Lastly, I wonder how Sivakov will develop. He was nowhere earlier in the year, but he was slowly coming through in Suisse too.
This was his big chance, salbutamol case closed and a perfect team behind him.
The problem was that he had internal competitor (Thomas), all team members was not dragging for him all the time.
Next tour one year older and mentally he looks broken after all negative reports.
The problem was that he had internal competitor (Thomas), all team members was not dragging for him all the time.
Next tour one year older and mentally he looks broken after all negative reports.
Next year he will be almost 35 years old.
Not to bring Alberto into the picture, but his last GT win was the 2015 Giro after winning the 2014. At the time, few thought that would be his last GT victory, but the light went out at 33 years old. Still competitive, but he wasn’t going to reach “that level” again, despite the hopes of his fans.
There’s no shame in getting older. The thing is that GT is now the defending TdF champion, and unlike 2012, Froome is no longer the younger rider, and Thomas doesn’t have a lot of time himself. If he didn’t focus on the TdF next year, he’d likely never have another chance either.
Not to bring Alberto into the picture, but his last GT win was the 2015 Giro after winning the 2014. At the time, few thought that would be his last GT victory, but the light went out at 33 years old. Still competitive, but he wasn’t going to reach “that level” again, despite the hopes of his fans.
There’s no shame in getting older. The thing is that GT is now the defending TdF champion, and unlike 2012, Froome is no longer the younger rider, and Thomas doesn’t have a lot of time himself. If he didn’t focus on the TdF next year, he’d likely never have another chance either.
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2015 was his normal. 2016-2018 he did not come in at 100%. In 2016 and 2017 he came in undercooked hoping to do the double and was able to win the tour at less than peak shape. In 2018 he was unable to do that. Is that because of age, better competition, illness, bad luck or some combination.
He will certainly be better prepared next year but 2015 will likely no longer be his normal. One does have to question will time have caught up with him next year. I can see him being the favorite but also can see Dumoulin and Roglic being ahead of him. I am curious to see the how they design the tour next year in terms of ITT and mountains. I can see both more MTFs and more ITT kms.
Red Rick said:
2015 was his normal. 2016-2018 he did not come in at 100%. In 2016 and 2017 he came in undercooked hoping to do the double and was able to win the tour at less than peak shape. In 2018 he was unable to do that. Is that because of age, better competition, illness, bad luck or some combination.
He will certainly be better prepared next year but 2015 will likely no longer be his normal. One does have to question will time have caught up with him next year. I can see him being the favorite but also can see Dumoulin and Roglic being ahead of him. I am curious to see the how they design the tour next year in terms of ITT and mountains. I can see both more MTFs and more ITT kms.
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He does, he usually just isn't racing when he's not on any kind of form. This Tour he said he showed up at best in race shape. He also was way off form in the 2016 Vuelta when that was his 3rd GT of the season. However, you are correct that you cannot compare anyone to Valverde because his peak and off peak form is actually very close. What we saw in this Tour was race shape, thus way off form. Also his 2016 season should have proven to everyone that if he couldn't do 3 GTs in one year no one can. Of course he also raced a full spring calendar that year. He's planning to try to hit his 2nd peak the 3rd week of la Vuelta and hold that through the Worlds.
dacooley said:Red Rick said:
It's not like anyone can be compared to Valverde in this department. I'm not even sure he ever has peaks and falls in his form.
He does, he usually just isn't racing when he's not on any kind of form. This Tour he said he showed up at best in race shape. He also was way off form in the 2016 Vuelta when that was his 3rd GT of the season. However, you are correct that you cannot compare anyone to Valverde because his peak and off peak form is actually very close. What we saw in this Tour was race shape, thus way off form. Also his 2016 season should have proven to everyone that if he couldn't do 3 GTs in one year no one can. Of course he also raced a full spring calendar that year. He's planning to try to hit his 2nd peak the 3rd week of la Vuelta and hold that through the Worlds.
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If Thomas wants to do the Tour I think he will. There are advantages going into a GT with two good leaders obviously. Froome will want the fifth Tour but it only gets harder for him from now on. He didn't beat Uran and Bardet by much in 2017 and they are not the equal of Dumoulin. Who knows Thomas might be happy to be sole leader at the Giro if he stays. But even with reduced teams and Moscon kicked off the race and Poels nowhere near his usual form Sky were still too strong. Rowe and Bernal have been amazing. Froome would prefer Thomas to do the Giro of course............
Red Rick said:
If Thomas wants to do the Tour I think he will. There are advantages going into a GT with two good leaders obviously. Froome will want the fifth Tour but it only gets harder for him from now on. He didn't beat Uran and Bardet by much in 2017 and they are not the equal of Dumoulin. Who knows Thomas might be happy to be sole leader at the Giro if he stays. But even with reduced teams and Moscon kicked off the race and Poels nowhere near his usual form Sky were still too strong. Rowe and Bernal have been amazing. Froome would prefer Thomas to do the Giro of course............
Even if Thomas goes to the giro and it's bernal who rides the tour with Froome this could be tricky for Froome. I think there is a good chance that bernal will be the best climber in the world by next year. Of course it could then turn out like a Wiggins vs Froome in 2012 with the better climber still working for the better tt rider. But maybe it actually ends as a 2nd Armstrong vs contador and bernal leaves Froome in his dust. Who knows but I'm pretty sure one of froome's biggest rivals next year will come from his own team.
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+1
His head has gone this year, he isn’t the top dog, sky’s plan b if he didn’t ride stepped up and smoked him. Not to mention G is more likeable for the public, is 10 times more stylish and made his way up through grass roots in the UK.
Froome is no longer the only option he knows it and it’s blown his mind.
tretiak said:
+1
His head has gone this year, he isn’t the top dog, sky’s plan b if he didn’t ride stepped up and smoked him. Not to mention G is more likeable for the public, is 10 times more stylish and made his way up through grass roots in the UK.
Froome is no longer the only option he knows it and it’s blown his mind.
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I'd love to know how you'd evidence any of this. It seems to have no basis in reality at all as far as I can tell.
B_Ugli said:
I'd love to know how you'd evidence any of this. It seems to have no basis in reality at all as far as I can tell.
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But then in late 2016 I laughed at the notion of Federer winning Grand Slams again. Difference is that GC cycling got tougher while men's tennis broke down.
I would say this.Valv.Piti said:
But then in late 2016 I laughed at the notion of Federer winning Grand Slams again. Difference is that GC cycling got tougher while men's tennis broke down.
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I think maybe one more and for him he obviously wants it to be the Tour. I think he is still mentally strong but the margins are getting more narrow for him especially in the mountains. Be interesting to see if Sky hold back Bernal for another season or just give him leadership in a GT next season. I think they may hold him back and give him leadership in some of the shorter stage races like this year.
Valv.Piti said:
I think maybe one more and for him he obviously wants it to be the Tour. I think he is still mentally strong but the margins are getting more narrow for him especially in the mountains. Be interesting to see if Sky hold back Bernal for another season or just give him leadership in a GT next season. I think they may hold him back and give him leadership in some of the shorter stage races like this year.
A lot of it will depend on how much doing 2 GTs a year takes out of him in addition to getting older. Last year he came into the TDF undercooked and it paid off, whereas here he is obviously fatigued from the giro and all the other stuff going on. If he just concentrates on the TDF next year I think he has a decent shot at it.
rick james
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