Teams & Riders Chris Froome Discussion Thread.

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Most of the examples you list are of two teammates competing for the win, not three (you could argue that Astana had four in 2009, but LL crashed out, and more to the point, no one other than Contador was ever going to challenge LA)..

As any physicist knows, the three body problem is far more complicated. If you have two leaders, one of them is usually going to gain separation at a point where the other has to yield and work for him. If you have three, though, you have the possibility of shifting alliances. We got some taste of that from 2009, where Contador in effect was contending against both LA and Klodi, since the latter would have been siding with LA in any conflict with Contador. That probably played into Contador's decision to attack on a key mountain stage, basically knocking Klodi out of contention for second or even third on the GC.

Granted, there was a lot of bad blood between LA and AC that does not appear to be the case with the three Ineos riders, but you also have the wild card situation, where at any point, any two might be fighting vs. the other, the leader. Suppose Bernal takes an early lead,. He wouldn't want either Froome or Thomas sent up the road, because they would be a challenge to him. If one of them did go up the road, I could see the other actually working to let that one go, since it would potentially improve his chances vs. Bernal. And so on. A lot of potential for chaos, it seems to me.

And again, I remind you that Froome in 2018 was less likely bothered by not winning than he would have been in any other year, having just come from an historic Giro win, and knowing how difficult the double would be. If he hadn't ridden the Giro, or worse, finished far out of contention--as had seemed likely for much of the race--I think not winning the TDF would have been a much bigger deal for him. He could afford to be magnanimous to Thomas, because he still had had a great year.
All true, of course, and the potential for a significant intra-team conflict that affects results for riders on the team negatively is definitely there. But I think that one rider is likely to emerge from the situation as the dominant player, and wind up on the podium, with the most probable position being first. And I think any team takes that, even Ineos.
 
I suspect many of the GC teams that have 2 options will take two options to the Tour this year. Ineos definitely takes Bernal and Thomas (likely Froome as long as he can prove he's recovered). JV likely takes both Roglic and Dumolin. UAE likely takes both Aru and Pogacar. Although in there case it's likely they don't know what to expect from either one. Of course we have Movistar with their new trident of Mas, Soler, and Valverde. Although I suspect Valverde is more the safety net for Mas and Soler. Now if we do get racing I do not expect Movistar's team this year to be as much of a circus as last year. However, Ineos appears to be trying to take that mantel for this year. The difference being Ineos is a more disciplined team to begin with with riders who actually listen to their DS and usually do what they are told.
 
I suspect many of the GC teams that have 2 options will take two options to the Tour this year. Ineos definitely takes Bernal and Thomas (likely Froome as long as he can prove he's recovered). JV likely takes both Roglic and Dumolin. UAE likely takes both Aru and Pogacar. Although in there case it's likely they don't know what to expect from either one. Of course we have Movistar with their new trident of Mas, Soler, and Valverde. Although I suspect Valverde is more the safety net for Mas and Soler. Now if we do get racing I do not expect Movistar's team this year to be as much of a circus as last year. However, Ineos appears to be trying to take that mantel for this year. The difference being Ineos is a more disciplined team to begin with with riders who actually listen to their DS and usually do what they are told.
It would seem Ineos is pretty consistent about their planning and historically quick to correct strategy during the race.
Jumbo-V will be a novel situation if two guys are close into the 3rd week. Generally they seem to stick to the plan.
Do you think Movistar will continue to be as aggressive as last year? Seems like they came up short on several long efforts to break the peloton down in GTs. And some of the aggressors are now protected.
 
It would seem Ineos is pretty consistent about their planning and historically quick to correct strategy during the race.
Jumbo-V will be a novel situation if two guys are close into the 3rd week. Generally they seem to stick to the plan.
Do you think Movistar will continue to be as aggressive as last year? Seems like they came up short on several long efforts to break the peloton down in GTs. And some of the aggressors are now protected.
Agree about Ineos and Jumbo-V. With Movistar I think they still need to figure out Mas and Soler's styles of racing and how they are most comfortable racing as leaders. Mas does have a GT podium, but like Pogacar last year he wasn't a favorite before that Vuelta started. So basically Movistar is going to the Tour with two unproven GC leaders and their long time leader there to help, coach, teach, support them and if all else fails act as the safety net for them. My guess is it will depend on what Mas and Soler are comfortable trying to do. I do think Movistar will be interesting to watch but for better reasons than the last couple of years. This year it will be because they have two young unproven leaders who are getting a chance to lead one of the better GC teams at the Tour.
 
It would seem Ineos is pretty consistent about their planning and historically quick to correct strategy during the race.
Jumbo-V will be a novel situation if two guys are close into the 3rd week. Generally they seem to stick to the plan.
Do you think Movistar will continue to be as aggressive as last year? Seems like they came up short on several long efforts to break the peloton down in GTs. And some of the aggressors are now protected.
IMHO Movistar was successful at breaking down the peloton, at least in last year's Tour, but neither Landa nor Quintana were strong enough to capitalize. This year will be different because they have no legitimate threat for the overall. A low-end Top 10 and/or a stage victory is about all that can be expected for Mas and Soler.

Jumbo-Visma is different. At the Tour, they only ride for minor places and seem happy with that. For example, last year they did nothing until riding in Stage 20 to protect Kruijswijk's 3rd place. If leading GC, they'll try to control. If not, they'll follow and be satisfied with a nice 3rd, 4th and 6th-type scenario.

As you stated, Ineos is consistent, will only care about winning the overall and won't care with who. I can potentially see Bernal or (if strong enough) Froome in some conflict if they both think they can win. But, like last year, will manage it within the context of the team's overall goal.
 
IMHO Movistar was successful at breaking down the peloton, at least in last year's Tour, but neither Landa nor Quintana were strong enough to capitalize. This year will be different because they have no legitimate threat for the overall. A low-end Top 10 and/or a stage victory is about all that can be expected for Mas and Soler.

Jumbo-Visma is different. At the Tour, they only ride for minor places and seem happy with that. For example, last year they did nothing until riding in Stage 20 to protect Kruijswijk's 3rd place. If leading GC, they'll try to control. If not, they'll follow and be satisfied with a nice 3rd, 4th and 6th-type scenario.

As you stated, Ineos is consistent, will only care about winning the overall and won't care with who. I can potentially see Bernal or (if strong enough) Froome in some conflict if they both think they can win. But, like last year, will manage it within the context of the team's overall goal.
Pretty much spot on. The change will be with JV fully armed. Roglic won the Vuelta against lesser competition and team assistance than he'll face in the Tour. He'll have Dumoulin and between them Ineos could have their hands full. Neither Primoz or Tom are afraid to get after it and attack.
 
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Pretty much spot on. The change will be with JV fully armed. Roglic won the Vuelta against lesser competition and team assistance than he'll face in the Tour. He'll have Dumoulin and between them Ineos could have their hands full. Neither Primoz or Tom are afraid to get after it and attack.
Hopefully Tom is fully recovered from his knee issues at this point. He and Roglic could be very good co leaders.
 
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