Well, obviously nobody can say who's going to win the Tour, all we can do is look at what's happened so far this season and project a bit based on that. Froome has been kicking eveyone's **** so far, and the one guy who's beaten him won't be at the Tour. Froome has been having the same kind of run-up to the Tour that Contador used to have, when he'd win 3 or 4 or 5 stage races while getting ready. I wouldn't automatically count Contador out, but he's been invisible this year compared to the past. To have a prayer he's going to have to ramp it up dramatically and show us a totally different rider that what we've seen so far. Can he do that? Sure he's smart and experienced, but if he doesn't have the legs then no way. This is Froome's to lose (which is of course very possible too).