Clasica San Sebastián 1/8 -- 219km

[robin440]

philgil for the win

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Gallopin was completely empty at the end of the Tour. He couldn't even follow wheels in Paris.

 

[Arredondo]

Purito to drop Bala on that climb and soloing to the win.

That criterium in Belgium ruins Valverde's chances.

 

[Squirbos_19]

Contador is out due to sickness

 

[TMP402]

I feel like this is the kind of race Kennaugh could win at some point - he is apparently riding this year - but can't be in great form, having DNF'd the Tour with illness.

Pretty good startlist.

 

[gustienordic]

Purito seems like the logical favorite for this year!

 

[Gigs_98]

Purito seems like the logical favorite for this year!

I think that he wont be able to create a gap on the last climb, which is big enough that he wont be caught on the descent or the flat

 

[jaylew]

Re:

We go to Spain for the penultimate World Tour Classic this weekend, more specifically, we head to the Basque Country. The Clasica San Sebastián falls on a very interesting point in the calendar. It joins the people coming out of form after competing in the Tour (Contador, Uran), those who are using this race to build up to the Vuelta (Landa), those who are targeting this race while also having an eye on the Canadian Classics and the Worlds (Gilbert) and those desperately trying to keep their form to do both the Tour and the Vuelta (Valverde). Basically, very few riders are at 100%. Because of this it is one of my favourite races, to make it even better it has incredible scenery in a region where it is very difficult to not create a hilly race. Last year saw Valverde break from Rodriguez, Mollema, Yates and Nieve on the descent of Bordako Tontorra after they attacked on it IIRC. Yates late crashed on the descent. And Mollema won the sprint for second, if you could call it a sprint. Zubeldia ninja-ed it to the line to finish 7th!

Do you expect people to read the above?

You must skip most of Libertine's posts then

I completely get what you're saying, though. Studies show that particularly online, people don't really read big blocks of uninterrupted text. We tend to skim it instead. Similar with thing with super long articles, or long blog and forum posts. It's much better to break things up into shorter paragraphs, and shorter or separate posts.

I have a tendency myself to do that sort of thing and wind up going back after most posts and making more paragraphs or erasing sentences altogether because I find them to be superfluous.

That paragraph wasn't too terribly long as I've seen much worse, but as the opening to the thread, yeah, it was a bit long. Good OP, though. Informative without being too insanely long.

 

[veji11]

Re:

Dislike the Bordako Tontorra finish, just makes it a Flèche Wallonne styled wait-til-the-last-climb event, and that climb is so steep it just becomes another puncheur race. Part of the joy of San Sebastián is not knowing who's got energy left over from the Tour, who's building up for the autumn, and surprises.

I really wish they'd just stuck Erlaitz in between the two ascents of Jaizkibel if they wanted to make it tougher.

Same, I liked the old route. It is time organisers and UCI realize that the routes aren't the problem : MSR or LBL or the Lombardia or RVV don't need endless route changes because of more bunch or group finishes, we end up with severly backloaded routes.

The problem lies with too strong a peloton : smaller teams (all one day races with 6 riders per team, not 8) for a start would help making the field less controlable. Other measures could be taken, but tinkering endlessly with routes just isn't the right thing to do imho.

The old route was great, sure you had 2012, but you also had 2013 with Gallopin going for it from afar.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Re:

Contador is out due to sickness

Kinda predictable.
Hope he get well and
recovers properly for next season.

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Contador is out due to sickness

Kinda predictable.
Hope he get well and
recovers properly for next season.

Didn't he say his season would end after the Tour anyway?

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Dislike the Bordako Tontorra finish, just makes it a Flèche Wallonne styled wait-til-the-last-climb event, and that climb is so steep it just becomes another puncheur race. Part of the joy of San Sebastián is not knowing who's got energy left over from the Tour, who's building up for the autumn, and surprises.

I really wish they'd just stuck Erlaitz in between the two ascents of Jaizkibel if they wanted to make it tougher.

The route is similar to Lombardia, no Fleche Valone.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Dislike the Bordako Tontorra finish, just makes it a Flèche Wallonne styled wait-til-the-last-climb event, and that climb is so steep it just becomes another puncheur race. Part of the joy of San Sebastián is not knowing who's got energy left over from the Tour, who's building up for the autumn, and surprises.

I really wish they'd just stuck Erlaitz in between the two ascents of Jaizkibel if they wanted to make it tougher.

The route is similar to Lombardia, no Fleche Valone.

Somewhere between Lombardia and Fleche, easier than former, harder than latter. But I think Libertine's point was that same type of riders are favorites for Fleche and San Sebastian, and it's ridden the same way, everybody waits for the last climb. Bordako Tontorra climb killed attacking from a far

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Maybe Tony Gllopin if he is recovered from the Tour?

He's not racing.

 

[Kwibus]

I just don't like this race. It just doesn't have the right route to be a real classic. Classics should be full of mountains and there should be hardly any flat in the crucial area of the race but the Classica San Sebastian is just a stage everyone could design in an hour, without even knowing the region before. Around 45 kilometers between the last serious climb and the penultimate climb with only one other climb between is just a joke. Everyone will foucus on the last climb and that means action for about 10 minutes.

edit: only my opinion, I can imagine quit well that many people here like this race because of its date in the season

There is no classic stuffed with mountains.

Maybe lombardia, but that race also has plenty of flat. Not sure what your point is.

 

[Tryphon]

Valverde and Gilbert spring to mind here,both former winners and both in form.

I like this race too,was there when Gallopin won,San Sebastian is uber cool.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Maybe Tony Gllopin if he is recovered from the Tour?

He's not racing.

Damn, I was hoping for good things

 

[DBotero]

Very strong Katusha team:
Pavel Kochetkov, Daniel Moreno, Tiago Machado, Joaquim Rodriguez, Egor Silin, Simon Špilak, Iurii Trofimov and Angel Vicioso.

Sky:Kennaugh,Roche,Earle,Seb.Henao,Nordhaug,Pate,Sioutsou,Sutton.

 

[Brullnux]

Very strong Katusha team:
Pavel Kochetkov, Daniel Moreno, Tiago Machado, Joaquim Rodriguez, Egor Silin, Simon Špilak, Iurii Trofimov and Angel Vicioso.

Sky:Kennaugh,Roche,Earle,Seb.Henao,Nordhaug,Pate,Sioutsou,Sutton.

Awesome team for Katusha. Why have Sky not brought the Bastard of the North?

 

[DFA123]

It's difficult to see how Valverde doesn't win this, especially given his form. Although it looks like Movistar will have a fairly weak team (it seems like they are going to deliberately not pick any of their Basque riders), so hopefully that will encourage some attacks on the Jaizkibel.

 

[johnymax]

Re:

It's difficult to see how Valverde doesn't win this, especially given his form. Although it looks like Movistar will have a fairly weak team (it seems like they are going to deliberately not pick any of their Basque riders), so hopefully that will encourage some attacks on the Jaizkibel.

I agree. I can see only two scenarios where Valverde could lose this. First is if a strong group of riders attack on Jaizkibel 55km from the finish or on Arkale 30km to go. The group must be well represented with lets say 7+ very strong riders. They need to work well together and build a nice gap and maybe they'd have some chances to get to the finish. The second scenario is if there's no that big of a selection on Bordako Tontorra and 6-7 or more riders regroup on the descent with no other Movistar rider. With some finisseur like attack, somebody could take a win from Valverde. Both are pretty unlikely though and I'd be surprised if Bala doesn't win.

 

[bala v]

Re: Re:

It's difficult to see how Valverde doesn't win this, especially given his form. Although it looks like Movistar will have a fairly weak team (it seems like they are going to deliberately not pick any of their Basque riders), so hopefully that will encourage some attacks on the Jaizkibel.

I agree. I can see only two scenarios where Valverde could lose this. First is if a strong group of riders attack on Jaizkibel 55km from the finish or on Arkale 30km to go. The group must be well represented with lets say 7+ very strong riders. They need to work well together and build a nice gap and maybe they'd have some chances to get to the finish. The second scenario is if there's no that big of a selection on Bordako Tontorra and 6-7 or more riders regroup on the descent with no other Movistar rider. With some finisseur like attack, somebody could take a win from Valverde. Both are pretty unlikely though and I'd be surprised if Bala doesn't win.

And the third is that Purito could drop him on Bordako Tontorra and cruise to the finish. Not very high possibility, considering Bala's form in the Tour, but if anybody can do that, it's Purito

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

It's difficult to see how Valverde doesn't win this, especially given his form. Although it looks like Movistar will have a fairly weak team (it seems like they are going to deliberately not pick any of their Basque riders), so hopefully that will encourage some attacks on the Jaizkibel.

I agree. I can see only two scenarios where Valverde could lose this. First is if a strong group of riders attack on Jaizkibel 55km from the finish or on Arkale 30km to go. The group must be well represented with lets say 7+ very strong riders. They need to work well together and build a nice gap and maybe they'd have some chances to get to the finish. The second scenario is if there's no that big of a selection on Bordako Tontorra and 6-7 or more riders regroup on the descent with no other Movistar rider. With some finisseur like attack, somebody could take a win from Valverde. Both are pretty unlikely though and I'd be surprised if Bala doesn't win.

And the third is that Purito could drop him on Bordako Tontorra and cruise to the finish. Not very high possibility, considering Bala's form in the Tour, but if anybody can do that, it's Purito

There's still about 3km of flat after the descent to the finish though. Bearing in mind that Purito is an awful time triallist and a worse descender than Valverde, he'd probably need to go over the top with a lead of around 40 seconds.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

It's difficult to see how Valverde doesn't win this, especially given his form. Although it looks like Movistar will have a fairly weak team (it seems like they are going to deliberately not pick any of their Basque riders), so hopefully that will encourage some attacks on the Jaizkibel.

I agree. I can see only two scenarios where Valverde could lose this. First is if a strong group of riders attack on Jaizkibel 55km from the finish or on Arkale 30km to go. The group must be well represented with lets say 7+ very strong riders. They need to work well together and build a nice gap and maybe they'd have some chances to get to the finish. The second scenario is if there's no that big of a selection on Bordako Tontorra and 6-7 or more riders regroup on the descent with no other Movistar rider. With some finisseur like attack, somebody could take a win from Valverde. Both are pretty unlikely though and I'd be surprised if Bala doesn't win.

And the third is that Purito could drop him on Bordako Tontorra and cruise to the finish. Not very high possibility, considering Bala's form in the Tour, but if anybody can do that, it's Purito

There's still about 3km of flat after the descent to the finish though. Bearing in mind that Purito is an awful time triallist and a worse descender than Valverde, he'd probably need to go over the top with a lead of around 40 seconds.

Just rewatch the final of Lombardia 2013. Purito got 10 seconds on Valverde at the top of Villa Vergano. After the descent, he had between 15 and 20 seconds. So he did a better descent then Piti. And on the flat section after that, Bala lost another 3 seconds (gap was 22 seconds between the two at one point).

So no way he needs 40 seconds. Come on, be real. If he drops Bala, it also means he's fresher. That means he will not lose too much time on the descent. It's not a computer game in the sense that in every situation, Bala will make up time on the descent and on the flat. It's all about form, legs and if you are dropped.

In every situation Purito will win this race, if he's got 15 seconds at the top of Bordako Tontorra.

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

It's difficult to see how Valverde doesn't win this, especially given his form. Although it looks like Movistar will have a fairly weak team (it seems like they are going to deliberately not pick any of their Basque riders), so hopefully that will encourage some attacks on the Jaizkibel.

I agree. I can see only two scenarios where Valverde could lose this. First is if a strong group of riders attack on Jaizkibel 55km from the finish or on Arkale 30km to go. The group must be well represented with lets say 7+ very strong riders. They need to work well together and build a nice gap and maybe they'd have some chances to get to the finish. The second scenario is if there's no that big of a selection on Bordako Tontorra and 6-7 or more riders regroup on the descent with no other Movistar rider. With some finisseur like attack, somebody could take a win from Valverde. Both are pretty unlikely though and I'd be surprised if Bala doesn't win.

And the third is that Purito could drop him on Bordako Tontorra and cruise to the finish. Not very high possibility, considering Bala's form in the Tour, but if anybody can do that, it's Purito

There's still about 3km of flat after the descent to the finish though. Bearing in mind that Purito is an awful time triallist and a worse descender than Valverde, he'd probably need to go over the top with a lead of around 40 seconds.

Just rewatch the final of Lombardia 2013. Purito got 10 seconds on Valverde at the top of Villa Vergano. After the descent, he had between 15 and 20 seconds. So he did a better descent then Piti. And on the flat section after that, Bala lost another 3 seconds (gap was 22 seconds between the two at one point).

So no way he needs 40 seconds. Come on, be real. If he drops Bala, it also means he's fresher. That means he will not lose too much time on the descent.

In every situation Purito will win this race, if he's got 15 seconds at the top of Bordako Tontorra.

Purito had tailwind...