Clasica San Sebastián 2018, 4/8 - 228.7km

[yaco]

Great to see a beautiful rider in Alaphalippe win San Sebastian - Surely the Tour of Poland should start on Monday,so you get a better field for San Sebastian.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Without a doubt the worst Clasica I have seen. Everything about the race was just meh.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Not a single SKY in the top 20? :surprised:

WTF?

Obviously Bernal would have been there without his crash. But what do they care ? They have won the past four grand tours.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The critics from the couch potatoes here are pretty dumb again. What do you want him to do? He didn't do much/any work in the final km. The flat road was no place to attack. After the climb he had already gambled and lost. The worst thing to do would be throw away whatever result you had left

You're right. As a matter of fact he forced Alaphilippe to start the sprint from very far

Alaphilippe could have started the sprint from 1km out and still won. Mollema had lost as soon as soon as the gap to the chasers started going out. Which happened because he pulled over the top of the climb.

Mollema lost as soon as he didn't crest solo lol, it's not like there was any other situation today that he'd have won from. At least if you make it a heads up in the finale there's a chance your opponent drops a chain or something.

Nonsense. He would have had a reasonable chance to win from a group of six. Anyone can sneak away in the final 2km, because no-one will take the responsibility to chase. You see it all the time in the other Classics. Its tactics 101.

No chance with just two, because Alaphilippe is always going to immediately close down any move.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Mollema did exactly the correct thing (team orders most likely anyway). Had he just sat on the whole way it would have been far more humiliating when Alaphilippe rinsed him in the sprint

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Without a doubt the worst Clasica I have seen. Everything about the race was just meh.

Yeah, terrible race. Weak start list, the best climbers crashing out and then the favourite winning at a canter. Dull.

 

[rlntlssly]

Mollema had two choices (percentages approximate):

- 10% chance of a win, guaranteed second place
- 20% chance of a win, guaranteed off the podium

He chose the former. Not unreasonable.

 

[Lequack]

Bernal not looking the best being being loaded into the ambulance. And he had such a great Tour as well.
https://twitter.com/ignaciooziyaho1/status/1025769135828086784

 

[ThePirate81]

Is Bernal ok?
He could have been up there with Alaphilippe and Mollema. Roglic too.
Dan Martin evaporated on the last climb.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Mollema had two choices (percentages approximate):

- 10% chance of a win, guaranteed second place
- 20% chance of a win, guaranteed off the podium

He chose the former. Not unreasonable.

Sounds about right. Although I think 10% chance of a win in a heads up against Alaphilippe is a bit generous.

For a rider who has won here before though - which remains his only one day win - you'd think he might be prepared to take the risk.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Mollema had two choices (percentages approximate):

- 10% chance of a win, guaranteed second place
- 20% chance of a win, guaranteed off the podium

He chose the former. Not unreasonable.

Sounds about right. Although I think 10% chance of a win in a heads up against Alaphilippe is a bit generous.

For a rider who has won here before though - which remains his only one day win - you'd think he might be prepared to take the risk.

Yeah, 10% is just too much. Probably 0.5%.

The 20% from a group of many is also too much, though.

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

Re:

Is Bernal ok?
He could have been up there with Alaphilippe and Mollema. Roglic too.
Dan Martin evaporated on the last climb.

No word yet on Bernal's injuries. It looks as if it could be quite bad, certainly hope it is not. Also hope that Landa's back injury is not too bad

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Landa does seem to have an aptitude for crashing as much as Porte nowadays.

I hope they are all ok

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

The critics from the couch potatoes here are pretty dumb again. What do you want him to do? He didn't do much/any work in the final km. The flat road was no place to attack. After the climb he had already gambled and lost. The worst thing to do would be throw away whatever result you had left

You're right. As a matter of fact he forced Alaphilippe to start the sprint from very far

Yeah that was a good dummy. But alaphilippe was too strong and could hold the pace

I agree but then again this actually might have worked if he had forced Alaphilippe to do all the work from the top of the climb onwards. Up to the final few hundred meters from where onwards Mollema stayed behind the workload was almost 50:50 although they were never close to getting caught. If Mollema had refused to work, Alaphilippe still easily could have held off the chasers on his own (and would as even after working a lot more than Mollema he probably would have been the favorite in a sprint) but Mollema's chance in a sprint would have been much bigger.

 

[rlntlssly]

Re: Re:

Mollema had two choices (percentages approximate):

- 10% chance of a win, guaranteed second place
- 20% chance of a win, guaranteed off the podium

He chose the former. Not unreasonable.

Sounds about right. Although I think 10% chance of a win in a heads up against Alaphilippe is a bit generous.

Yeah, probably. But Alaphilippe could have punctured, crashed, got lost and ended up in Biarritz... The actual numbers aren't terribly important!

For a rider who has won here before though - which remains his only one day win - you'd think he might be prepared to take the risk.

Indeed. Though the other side of the coin is that this is his best result of the season, unless you count a stage of the Settimana Coppi e Bartali.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

No Gigs, that would have never worked. If Mollema refused to work straight from the top. They would have been caught and Mollema would probably not even finish top 10 while there's a good chance Alafpolak would still win.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The critics from the couch potatoes here are pretty dumb again. What do you want him to do? He didn't do much/any work in the final km. The flat road was no place to attack. After the climb he had already gambled and lost. The worst thing to do would be throw away whatever result you had left

You're right. As a matter of fact he forced Alaphilippe to start the sprint from very far

Yeah that was a good dummy. But alaphilippe was too strong and could hold the pace

I agree but then again this actually might have worked if he had forced Alaphilippe to do all the work from the top of the climb onwards. Up to the final few hundred meters from where onwards Mollema stayed behind the workload was almost 50:50 although they were never close to getting caught. If Mollema had refused to work, Alaphilippe still easily could have held off the chasers on his own (and would as even after working a lot more than Mollema he probably would have been the favorite in a sprint) but Mollema's chance in a sprint would have been much bigger.

Yep. The gap was only about 14 seconds going over the top of the climb. Alaphilippe would have had to work pretty hard by himself to hold them off - and he almost certainly would have tried to do so given that GVA could outsprint him. Mollema then could have countered or, at least, maximized his chances in the sprint. And if they got caught, then he still has chances to win with a late attack.

Working over the top was 100% just riding for 2nd place. Which is understandable given the WT points situation, but a bit rubbish for the fans.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Mollema had two choices (percentages approximate):

- 10% chance of a win, guaranteed second place
- 20% chance of a win, guaranteed off the podium

He chose the former. Not unreasonable.

Sounds about right. Although I think 10% chance of a win in a heads up against Alaphilippe is a bit generous.

Indeed. Though the other side of the coin is that this is his best result of the season, unless you count a stage of the Settimana Coppi e Bartali.

True. And Trek as a team in general probably welcome the WT points after a pretty disastrous season so far.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Mollema had two choices (percentages approximate):

- 10% chance of a win, guaranteed second place
- 20% chance of a win, guaranteed off the podium

He chose the former. Not unreasonable.

This is just wrong. If he hadn't worked at all I'd say it would have been 20% chance of a win, 60% 2nd place, 20% off the podium. Why does everyone assume Alaphilippe would have stopped riding if Mollema hadn't worked especially as the same people seemingly still think Alaphilippe would have won the sprint against Mollema anyway.

 

[Carols]

I saw Bernal moving his legs when he was on the ground which is good. Hopefully both he and Landa are not badly injured.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Without a doubt the worst Clasica I have seen. Everything about the race was just meh.

To be honest I don't think this was any worse than any of the editions since the route change. It's just that all editions since then have been rubbish.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Mollema had two choices (percentages approximate):

- 10% chance of a win, guaranteed second place
- 20% chance of a win, guaranteed off the podium

He chose the former. Not unreasonable.

This is just wrong. If he hadn't worked at all I'd say it would have been 20% chance of a win, 60% 2nd place, 20% off the podium. Why does everyone assume Alaphilippe would have stopped riding if Mollema hadn't worked especially as the same people seemingly still think Alaphilippe would have won the sprint against Mollema anyway.

Yeah, there's no chance Alaphilippe would stop working. Firstly, it's not his style as a rider, and secondly I'm sure he would fancy his chances heads up v Mollema (albeit a fresher Mollema), rather than trying to win from a group of at least six. Where he would have to both fend off late attacks and then beat GVA in a sprint.

 

[tobydawq]

As another argument for him not working, I will say that it would have been hilarious watching Alaphilippe gesticulating at him for 7 kilometres

 

[Lequack]

Re: Re:

I guess Roglic also crashed in that big crash since he was nowhere to be seen on the climb.

Yes, he did. It took a while for him to get going again.

Guess you were right. I really think Roglic could've been up there with Alaphillipe and Mollema, but in the end I still think Alaphillipe would have got the better of both.

He was seen holding his shoulder, hopefully it's okay.

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

I guess Roglic also crashed in that big crash since he was nowhere to be seen on the climb.

Yes, he did. It took a while for him to get going again.

Guess you were right. I really think Roglic could've been up there with Alaphillipe and Mollema, but in the end I still think Alaphillipe would have got the better of both.

He was seen holding his shoulder, hopefully it's okay.