Comprehensive Climbers Ranking

[Peyresourde]

Relative performance already outweighs absolute performance.

Tip: It is called results.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

This is definitely interesting. You’ve put a lot of thought and hard work into it. Thank you! It seems like the big gap that people are kind of dancing around is relative finish. Like there should be deductions based on gap to the leader and/or additions for winning with a big margin. Perennial finishers in the 5-10 range just seem like they shouldn’t be ranked above winners. Like does anyone really believe Richie Porte was better than 2018-2022 Roglic? Same with the Nibali discussion above.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Relative performance already outweighs absolute performance.

Tip: It is called results.

Did I miss that results are a factor in this ranking?

 

[Pozzovivo]

Did I miss that results are a factor in this ranking?

The results are first converted into time on the final climb, which is then converted into w/kg values, which are then adjusted for factors we believe are important and labeled “performance,” which is then converted into a ranking, which in practice a new set of results.

 

[Peyresourde]

This ranking is based purely on w/kg performances with some adjustments for conditions. Many of the discussions hinge on the fact that this is not enough to define how good a climber someone is. And I agree with that.

I privately have a second ranking where I also adjust for these two categories:
Attack (subcategories: Spirit, Change of Pace, (uphill) Sprint
Consistency (subcategories: climb types, stage hardness, stage to stage, season(s))

These aspects combined are easily worth ~ 0.2 W/kg (or even more in extreme cases).

Some riders like Armstrong or also Pogacar and Roglic from (19-22) then shoot up the rankings, while riders like Ullrich, Sastre and Quintana suffer.

But I probably won't publish that ranking as it is even more subjective and I instead invite everyone to draw their own conclusions from my 'pure w/kg' ranking

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

This ranking is based purely on w/kg performances with some adjustments for conditions. Many of the discussions hinge on the fact that this is not enough to define how a good a climber someone is. And I agree with that.

I privately have a second ranking where I also adjust for these two categories:
Attack (subcategories: Spirit, Change of Pace, (uphill) Sprint
Consistency (subcategories: climb types, stage hardness, stage to stage, season(s))

These aspects are combined are easily worth ~ 0.2 W/kg (or even more in extreme cases).

Some riders Armstrong or also Pogacar and Roglic from (19-22) then shoot up the rankings, while riders like Ullrich, Sastre and Quintana suffer.

But I probably won't publish that ranking as it is even more subjective and I instead invite everyone to draw their own conclusions from my 'pure w/kg' ranking

I totally hear you. If you make too many adjustments and assumptions it almost gets to the point where we might as well just make up our own rankings. A lot of what you've done here makes sense. In terms of the eye test and what I've witnessed, adjustments that result in Lance, Pogacar, and Roglic jumping up and Saste and Quintana dropping off makes sense to me.

 

[Peyresourde]

Perhaps one of the most anticipated parts of the ranking is finally upon us: Roglic vs. Evenepoel vs. Almeida. And we cannot forget Roglic's old 'historical rider comparison' Tony Rominger. Not only are they close in the Alphabet, their palmares and their career trajectory, they even score almost exactly the same in my ranking!!
Tier 4 'Giro/Vuelta Champs' contains only a single Tour winner despite including a 'who is who' of top climbers (this is the least of all tiers -->maybe you would rather be a worse climber??):

Tier 4 (85-90)

Evgeni Berzin | 90.0 | PB: 103 (0): 7.62 W/kg for 11:55 on Arrate Usartza (Euskal Bizikleta 1995)
Tony Rominger | 88.5 | PB: 98 (0): 7.01 W/kg for 22:51 on Selvino ITT (Giro 1995)
Remco Evenepoel | 88.1 | PB: 94 (+2): 6.41 W/kg for 42:41 on Plateau de Beille (Tour 2024)
Primoz Roglic | 87.7 | PB: 92 (-3): 6.90 W/kg for 23:55 on Moncalvillo (Vuelta 2024)
Roberto Heras | 86.6 | PB: 92 (-1): 6.46 W/kg for 41:00 on Angliru (Vuelta 2000)
Joao Almeida | 86.6 | PB: 91 (+2): 6.38 W/kg for 41:10 on Angliru (Vuelta 2025)

Luc Leblanc | 86.2 | PB: 99 (-1): 6.76 W/kg for 35:19 on Hautacam (Tour 1994)
Fernando Escartin | 85.3 | PB: 94 (-2): 6.91 W/kg for 25:09 on Covadonga (Vuelta 1997)
Alberto Contador | 85.2 | PB: 98 (+1): 7.07 W/kg for 20:40 on Verbier (Tour 2009)
Ivan Gotti | 85.1 | PB: 96 (+4): 6.43 W/kg for 42:07 on Mortirolo (Giro 1996)

Notes:
1) Rominger still ahead of Roglic. To my knowledge, he was the first rider to really explode the watts on a road stage, namely in the Pyrenees in 1993 on Pla d'Adet and Tourmalet. There he even put Indurain under real pressure, who had to teleport down the descent to catch Rominger.
2) Evenepoel, Roglic and Almeida very close. We will see what the future brings.

3)'Hautacam specialist' Luc Leblanc and 'King of the Mortirolo' Ivan Gotti got an extra boost on their favourite climb (a bit similar to Pantani on Alpe d'Huez).
4) Heras and Simoni are basically mirror-images of each other. Both active in the same time period, they could only deliver top performances in their home country. But both have exactly one great performance in the other's country. On both occasions, they (almost) crested the top together (Mortirolo 1999, Lagos de Covadonga 2005)

Bonus: Vingegaard (2021-2023): 88.1
Pogacar (2019-2023): 86.8

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Please rerun this with an adjustment that puts Primoz ahead of Remco. Surely consistent unexplained meltdowns on big climbing days should be a factor? Make it happen!

 

[hayneplane]

Instinctively Almeida above Contador just feels so wrong on an aesthetic basis.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Instinctively Almeida above Contador just feels so wrong on an aesthetic basis.

@Peyresourde you need to fix this. Aesthetics have to be a factor come on.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Please rerun this with an adjustment that puts Primoz ahead of Remco. Surely consistent unexplained meltdowns on big climbing days should be a factor? Make it happen!

If Roglic had not crashed out of the 24'tour he would likely have been ahead of Remco. Outlier race where so many of the modern riders did their all time PR's.

Maybe, @Peyresourde can confirm Remco's score if we remove his performances in 24'TDF. Surely he is in a different tier altogheter. Note: I aknowledge that this is completely arbitrary.

 

[Red Rick]

If Roglic had not crashed out of the 24'tour he would likely have been ahead of Remco. Outlier race where so many of the modern riders did their all time PR's.

Maybe, @Peyresourde can confirm Remco's score if we remove his performances in 24'TDF. Surely he is in a different tier altogheter. Note: I aknowledge that this is completely arbitrary.

It's the Naichaca propaganda of hyping up Evenepoel on climbs where he got destroyed. W2W has his 3 top results as PdB, Couiolle and Isola 2000, with his other top 6 results being Lombardia (overestimated fatigue and underestimating drafting at low altitude) and Erlaitz (where it somehow gets a +2 index).

 

[Pozzovivo]

It's the Naichaca propaganda of hyping up Evenepoel on climbs where he got destroyed. W2W has his 3 top results as PdB, Couiolle and Isola 2000, with his other top 6 results being Lombardia (overestimated fatigue and underestimating drafting at low altitude) and Erlaitz (where it somehow gets a +2 index).

I concede that Remco-hype is one of the strongest forces in the cycling zeitgeist. But he also did outclimb Almeida in TDF 24 and Roglic in vuelta 22. Probalby the third strongest climber in the world still. Wouldn't bet against him in any climbers race except vs Pog and JV.

 

[Red Rick]

I concede that Remco-hype is one of the strongest forces in the cycling zeitgeist. But he also did outclimb Almeida in TDF 24 and Roglic in vuelta 22. Probalby the third strongest climber in the world still. Wouldn't bet against him in any climbers race except vs Pog and JV.

Almeida had to work for Pogacar multiple times that Tour, and I think anyone would admit Roglic wasn't in his finest hour in the 2022 Vuelta. Evenepoel only dropped Enricky Mas once all Vuelta.

Like we're literally talking about anointing Evenepoel the 3rd best climber in the world based on like 3 climbs where he got dropped hard while not giving any credit for stuff like Lipowitz doing the same thing more recently or Almeida beating Vingegaard on the Angliru.

 

[Peyresourde]

Without Tour '24:
Roglic 87.6
Evenepoel 84.3

This is pretty unfair to Evenepoel, every rider's ranking drops if we remove their best race. Roglic would also go down 2+ points if we remove his best race (Vuelta 2024 where he might not have participated at all / not in the same form had he not dropped out of the Tour).

As I mentioned before, if we additionally adjusted for some more intangible aspects of climbing, then a rider like Remco would dip a bit in the rankings and Roglic (at least from 19-24 when he was super consistent) would go up.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Almeida had to work for Pogacar multiple times that Tour, and I think anyone would admit Roglic wasn't in his finest hour in the 2022 Vuelta. Evenepoel only dropped Enricky Mas once all Vuelta.

Like we're literally talking about anointing Evenepoel the 3rd best climber in the world based on like 3 climbs where he got dropped hard while not giving any credit for stuff like Lipowitz doing the same thing more recently or Almeida beating Vingegaard on the Angliru.

It's just my opinion and peyresourdes index that coincide on this matter. I totally agree that remco's climbing performances has been overestimated (literally) and overhyped for many years. Also agree that 22' Rog was not representative.

Almeida was the first guy to drop and PDB and got beaten by a big margin by Remco. Remco clearly stronger on s 19 and 20 of 24 TDF.
Outclimbing Mas in vuelta is a very good standard imo. Not always Roglic managed that either despite winning 4 vueltas.

 

[Red Rick]

It's just my opinion and peyresourdes index that coincide on this matter. I totally agree that remco's climbing performances has been overestimated (literally) and overhyped for many years. Also agree that 22' Rog was not representative.

Almeida was the first guy to drop and PDB and got beaten by a big margin by Remco. Remco clearly stronger on s 19 and 20 of 24 TDF.
Outclimbing Mas in vuelta is a very good standard imo. Not always Roglic managed that either despite winning 4 vueltas.

And by what difference was he better, and by what difference was he worse than Pogacar and Vingegaard on those climbs.

It's basically absurd to me that we're treating a climb where he lost almost 3 mintues to Pogacar with more awe and admiration than a Ventoux with a 1 minute gap just because there was a tailwind on the former.

A lot of these indexes will treat stuff like Landa dropping 4 minutes on Plateau de Beille as a better performance than Roglic destroying the field on Ancares into a headwind.

And many other riders who only show a high level in 1 or 2 GTs won't be treated like top 3 in the world, they'll be dismissed as a sign of a weak field, like how people were talking about the likes of Onley

 

[Peyresourde]

Maybe Remco might have missed his best chance to win the Tour already. IMO with his Vuelta 22 shape (which was very good even though it is true that Roglic was not top) and a bit of luck you can legetimately think of scenarios where he wins the Tour '22. (The same is true for Roglic had he not crashed out)

Of course it is not that likely even in hindsight and he did not participate anyway.

In cycling you also have to think in layers. In '22 Evenepoel had no team to set the pace, so the difference to Mas was just small enough that he could not drop him. In exactly the same shape he would drop Mas everytime if both where beamed into the Tour de France with stronger rivals and teams pacing.

@Red Rick You also talk about calculations underestimating draft and then you ding Evenepoel for not dropping Mas on Pico Jano on 6%?
A headwind also matters much less on steep gradients and the gaps can even get bigger once you actually drop someone

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe Remco might have missed his best chance to win the Tour already. IMO with his Vuelta 22 shape (which was very good even though it is true that Roglic was not top) and a bit of luck you can legetimately think of scenarios where he wins the Tour '22. (The same is true for Roglic had he not crashed out)

Of course it is not that likely even in hindsight and he did not participate anyway.

In cycling you also have to think in layers. In '22 Evenepoel had no team to set the pace, so the difference to Mas was just small enough that he could not drop him. In exactly the same shape he would drop Mas everytime if both where beamed into the Tour de France with stronger rivals and teams pacing.

@Red Rick You also talk about calculations underestimating draft and then you ding Evenepoel for not dropping Mas on Pico Jano on 6%?
A headwind also matters much less on steep gradients and the gaps can even get bigger once you actually drop someone

Pico Jano is 8.5% average for the first half. He also failed to drop him on Fancuyana, Penas Blancas, Pandera, Sierra Nevada and Navacerrada.

As for him winning in 2022, I can only chuckle at that the idea of Vuelta Mas following Evenepoel around while Pogacar and Vingegaard are disappearing in the back of the screen, that one sounds entirely implausible.

 

[Netserk]

IMO with his Vuelta 22 shape (which was very good even though it is true that Roglic was not top) and a bit of luck you can legetimately think of scenarios where he wins the Tour '22

whaaaaaat

visma had a stacked team and vingegaard held back most of the race

 

[Peyresourde]

whaaaaaat

visma had a stacked team and vingegaard held back most of the race

I said there are scenarios. In 2022 the gap beween Vingegaard, Pogacar and Evenepoel was the smallest it has ever been, leaving the room open for tactical scenarios.
I am not saying that Remco would have been stronger than Vingegaard. But there was over 50k of TT where he could have gained time, a cobble stage where he might have been with Pogacar and extended the gap (or crashed out).

And the climbing level of Vingegaard is IMO a bit overestimated for 2022 . Of course the heat and tactics might have held him back. Vingegaard took a major step in (April) 2023.

All I am saying is that it might have been his best shot, not that it was likely. It is rare in GTs that a third person is involved. Even if that rider is a bit weaker, things can happen (see Giro 2025).

 

[Red Rick]

Granon and Hautacam are like #1 and #2 on the list of "climbing times that would've been way faster if gone full gas from the bottom

 

[Peyresourde]

Granon and Hautacam are like #1 and #2 on the list of "climbing times that would've been way faster if gone full gas from the bottom

Just in pure theory, if things had stayed similar with Remco in the race:
He does not go with the attacks on Galibier/Spandelles and instead rides a smooth pace like he prefers. The he does not loose more than 30 seconds on either Granon or Hautacam.

Of course that is pure speculation and Visma would have adjusted their tacticts. All I am saying is that it is the only Tour where I would even give Remco a theoretical shot. He was far closer in level than now, and with 3 riders in the mix strange tactics can happen.

 

[Netserk]

i think its very hard to calculate the lvl of vingegaard that tour as he only went full two times, and both stages were raced from the penultimate climb. had galibier been normal steady tempo and the team then fresh enough to ensure granon was raced full gas from the bottom, how much faster could he have gone

 

[Peyresourde]

It is theoretically possible that Vingegaard's watts in 2022 were already the same as in 2023. But then at least he took a big step in his confidence/mentality in '23 from where on he tried to take every opportunity.
All I am saying that he did not bring out those watts on most stages in 2022, which might have given Remco a slight shot or at least would have kept him close.

I am especially wondering about the Peyragudes stage (the day before Hautacam). That day the pace was really weak on the last climb and Pogacar was close to the limit (He was clearly weaker then the following day on Hautacam).
Vingegaard clearly held somewhat back, but how much??

Did he really have no confidence to drop Pogacar or did he not even think about attacking because it was not the original plan? In 2023 he would have attacked 100% in that situation.