Comprehensive Climbers Ranking

[Peyresourde]

LOL, didn't see this until now. When you mentioned that some of the climbs I requested would be on the best-of-the-year list, the Najar one wasn't what immediately came to mind. This is glorious. Now I think you really should look at Gabrovski's Elmali too!

So I guess Padun 2021 will be the other one, as you did address the Mayo Ventoux climb, and it didn't make your list.

Yes, the Najar performance was crazy. For Elmali/Gogubeli, Gabrovski does not even have the climbing record anymore and the VAM don't seem impressive at all at first glance.

I will publish the last few years tomorrow. Padun may appear, but it is a close call for 2021. Alaphilippe would actually have taken it in 2021 if not for an exaggerated sit-up on a certain stage (perhaps no one here would have had that performance in mind for the best in 2021).

 

[Pozzovivo]

According to LR, stage 6, TDS up Moosalp was a terrible performance (w/kg), while the next day, on Malbun, Thomas, Huguita and some others did a "really good performance". How do you evaluate those, @Peyresourde?

(https://lanternerouge.com/2022/06/18/a-good-level-performance-from-geraint-thomas-before-the-tour/)

 

[Peyresourde]

According to LR, stage 6, TDS up Moosalp was a terrible performance (w/kg), while the next day, on Malbun, Thomas, Huguita and some others did a "really good performance". How do you evaluate those, @Peyresourde?

(https://lanternerouge.com/2022/06/18/a-good-level-performance-from-geraint-thomas-before-the-tour/)

Yes, that's basically true. Moosalp seemed so bad that I did not even calculate it. (There were no gaps between favorites even though the field was depleted). Malbun was better, especially considering the heat and illness going around.

Sergio Higuita | 75 (-3): 6.12 W/kg for 39:00 on Malbun (Suisse 2022)

For 24/25 standards this performance is average, but for 2022 I would call this a decent level.

 

[SafeBet]

85 is tied for second best in UAE Tour history with Evenepoel/Yates on Jebel Hafeet in 2023. The best was Pogacar last year on Hafeet with 88.
No other performance comes even close to Tiberi this year.

And how does Del Toro's performance on Jebel Hafeet compare to the other two you mention here?

 

[Peyresourde]

And how does Del Toro's performance on Jebel Hafeet compare to the other two you mention here?

I have Del Toro as 81, so a bit worse, but the pacing was also less regular. Jebel Hafeet is also not an easy climb for estimates (descent on the climb, flat parts, unclear start, strong wind influence with a tailwind this year and headwind in many others), so the uncertainty is higher than for other climbs. The probability is higher that I have underestimated the values than overestimated them.


This is the final part of my 3 rankings, the last 'scheduled' post if you will.
2020 saw a clear uptick in climbing perfromance, and had even more high level performances than 2021 and 2022. In 2023, the 2020 level was confirmed and even exceeded, before the level totally exploded in 2024. Here are the best per year:

2020| Tadej Pogacar | 90 (+5): 6.94 W/kg for 16:10 on Planche des Belles Filles ITT
2021| Mark Padun | 85 (-2): 6.25 W/kg for 45:14 on La Plagne
2022| Jonas Vingegaard | 87 (+3): 6.33 W/kg for 36:37 on Hautacam
2023 | Tadej Pogacar | 92 (0): 7.96 W/kg for 5:43 on Poggio
........... | Jonas Vingegaard | 91 (-2): 7.27 W/kg for 13:27 on Combloux ITT
2024 | Tadej Pogacar | 111 (+2): 6.89 W/kg for 39:50 on Plateau de Beille
2025 | Tadej Pogacar | 107 (-4): 7.47 W/kg for 19:31 on Peyragudes ITT

Notes:
1) 2020 as whole and especially the Tour had a really high level. E.g. Roglic did not improve on his best 2020 performances until the 2023 Vuelta or even 2024. Pogacar had just based on my numbers a better climbing level than 2021 and 2022 with performances of 90, 86, 85 and 83. Of course, race circumstances were different with more of a Sky-Train approach and a focus on the last climbs of the day.

2) The 2021 winner would have easily been Alaphilippe on stage 1 of that Tour, but he sat up too early again (costing him another victory...). I also consider other performances like Pogacar on Romme+Colombiere stronger, but we are talking single climb performances for this list.

3) I gave the nod in 2022 to Vingegaard, but Jay Vine on Pico Jano was basically equal if we are talking about a single climb.

4)The 2023 winner may surprise, but if you rewatch that MSR you will know why the watts were high. I still listed Vingegaard's TT if you want a real climb. Vingegaard's Tour in 2023 was amazingly consistent with Indexes of 91, 90, 88, 85, 85, 85 and more.


This was my last list. In the future I might (or might not) make some posts on legendary stages or races that have not yet featured prominently in my prior posts. I will probably also post about new climbing performances when they happen, but don't rely on it.

I hope for this thread to always stay open for dicsussions about climbers and performances, and if you have any questions, be free to ask. I might also update the lists on page 1 with new riders/performances when needed.

 

[Tim Cahill]

It's always good to see some empirical confirmation of what the real enthusiasts of the forum always knew, that the 2021 Tour is forever asterisked due to the non-inclusion of Padun. That wasn't even his final form, there's gotta a be a great story to come out one day as to what actually happened and why he didn't go. Chris was asking the right questions at the time;

Don't really know because of the competition and speed but the Pidcock attack yesterday seemed... fast, dropped Gregoire and a very good Christen directly off the wheel with a fairly tepid Q36/FDJ leadout on an easy climb. Cipressa-bound perhaps?

 

[Peyresourde]

The Dauphine is often the most freaky race on the calendar. There have been many examples of unknown riders / non climbers suddenly flying. Most of them couldn't repeat that in the Tour a few weeks later.

I did not caclulate the Pidcock effort yesterday, but his attack seemed extremely impressive. Gregoire exploded from the wheel just like on Cipressa last year. I would probably consider him one of the 3 best puncheurs currently, especially on fresher efforts.
If he is in position, I doubt Pogacar can drop him (easily) in MSR.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Padun with the best performance of the year. What a *** legend! He was so good that Bahrain team left him home before the Tour! (apparently he was glowing in the dark)

 

[Netserk]

Notes:

how do you adjust the performance on covadonga 2021

 

[Peyresourde]

how do you adjust the performance on covadonga 2021

2021| Primoz Roglic | 82 (+6): 6.35 W/kg for 26:46 on Covadonga

This kind of effort is hard to judge, they already did the previous climb very hard (77 for Bernal, 75 for Roglic) and then pulled in the valley. I gave quite a few points for that (Covadonga is low altitude, so +6 is a lot). Together with Pogacar's effort on Romme+Colombiere the best combo of climbs of the year and probabaly the two best overall performances.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I have Del Toro as 81, so a bit worse, but the pacing was also less regular. Jebel Hafeet is also not an easy climb for estimates (descent on the climb, flat parts, unclear start, strong wind influence with a tailwind this year and headwind in many others), so the uncertainty is higher than for other climbs. The probability is higher that I have underestimated the values than overestimated them.


This is the final part of my 3 rankings, the last 'scheduled' post if you will.
2020 saw a clear uptick in climbing perfromance, and had even more high level performances than 2021 and 2022. In 2023, the 2020 level was confirmed and even exceeded, before the level totally exploded in 2024. Here are the best per year:

2020| Tadej Pogacar | 90 (+5): 6.94 W/kg for 16:10 on Planche des Belles Filles ITT
2021| Mark Padun | 85 (-2): 6.25 W/kg for 45:14 on La Plagne
2022| Jonas Vingegaard | 87 (+3): 6.33 W/kg for 36:37 on Hautacam
2023 | Tadej Pogacar | 92 (0): 7.96 W/kg for 5:43 on Poggio
........... | Jonas Vingegaard | 91 (-2): 7.27 W/kg for 13:27 on Combloux ITT
2024 | Tadej Pogacar | 111 (+2): 6.89 W/kg for 39:50 on Plateau de Beille
2025 | Tadej Pogacar | 107 (-4): 7.47 W/kg for 19:31 on Peyragudes ITT

Notes:
1) 2020 as whole and especially the Tour had a really high level. E.g. Roglic did not improve on his best 2020 performances until the 2023 Vuelta or even 2024. Pogacar had just based on my numbers a better climbing level than 2021 and 2022 with performances of 90, 86, 85 and 83. Of course, race circumstances were different with more of a Sky-Train approach and a focus on the last climbs of the day.

2) The 2021 winner would have easily been Alaphilippe on stage 1 of that Tour, but he sat up too early again (costing him another victory...). I also consider other performances like Pogacar on Romme+Colombiere stronger, but we are talking single climb performances for this list.

3) I gave the nod in 2022 to Vingegaard, but Jay Vine on Pico Jano was basically equal if we are talking about a single climb.

4)The 2023 winner may surprise, but if you rewatch that MSR you will know why the watts were high. I still listed Vingegaard's TT if you want a real climb. Vingegaard's Tour in 2023 was amazingly consistent with Indexes of 91, 90, 88, 85, 85, 85 and more.


This was my last list. In the future I might (or might not) make some posts on legendary stages or races that have not yet featured prominently in my prior posts. I will probably also post about new climbing performances when they happen, but don't rely on it.

I hope for this thread to always stay open for dicsussions about climbers and performances, and if you have any questions, be free to ask. I might also update the lists on page 1 with new riders/performances when needed.

Tough luck for Primoz. He puts up numbers superior to the prior 10 years, setting himself up to be the next clear dominator, and this dang kid from his own country comes along and puts up a performance higher than anything since Contador on Verbier.

Also, can you compare the performances of 2020 Tour by Pogi and Roglic to Pogi and Vingegaard in 2021 and 2022?

 

[Peyresourde]

Tough luck for Primoz. He puts up numbers superior to the prior 10 years, setting himself up to be the next clear dominator, and this dang kid from his own country comes along and puts up a performance higher than anything since Contador on Verbier.

Also, can you compare the performances of 2020 Tour by Pogi and Roglic to Pogi and Vingegaard in 2021 and 2022?

To be more specific about Roglic: He had great performances on Loze and Puy Mary, on the other stages he did not do anything special. But yes, he could have theoretically won every Tour of the 2010s with those legs.

To compare these 3 Tours, it is not really enough to just look at numbers.
2020 was in September, so not as hot as normal (favoring Pogacar) and it was raced more in the 2010 fashion with the Jumbo train. Jumbo also often set a good pace, leading to strong climbing times.

The Tour in 2021 and 2022 especially were often raced more aggressively from further out, diminishing the performances on the last climb. Pogacar in 21 and Vingegaard in 22 also did not (have to) go all out every day.

Some posters complain that we only talk about weight with Remco, but in 2021 and 2022 Pogacar may have packed a bit extra. This was not as bad in 2021 with the cold weather especially in the alps, but in 2022 it cost him double because of the heat.

Overall I would rate:

22 Vingegaard = 20 Pogacar > 21/22 Pogacar > 20 Roglic > 21 Vingegaard

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think it also makes sense to categorize climbs based on duration. It's hard to compare a 5-minute climb and 40-minute climb (also regarding physiology) so rating comparison errors are potentially bigger (the formula likely bases on a very generalized power curve). I.e. I would like to see performances of the year divided into three categories (i.e. under 5 minutes, 5-15 minutes and 15+ minutes) or two categories (under 10 min and 10+ min).

 

[Peyresourde]

I think it also makes sense to categorize climbs based on duration. It's hard to compare a 5-minute climb and 40-minute climb (also regarding physiology) so rating comparison errors are potentially bigger (the formula likely bases on a very generalized power curve). I.e. I would like to see performances of the year divided into three categories (i.e. under 5 minutes, 5-15 minutes and 15+ minutes) or two categories (under 10 min and 10+ min).

The errors are definitely bigger for short climbs, not just the calculation but also the adjustments and the power curve itself. I won't do 2 seperate rankings, I don't even have good short performances for many years. I only did short efforts anyways because I found it intersting. Many people calculating w/kg don't even calcaulate these type of efforts because of the big margin of error.

In general I can say that there are some riders only good on short efforts, some only good on longer efforts, but many (especially the better riders) are good on both. I think the most important barrier is somewhere around the 3 minute mark or even shorter, where it becomes more of a power/classic type effort. The 6 % gradient is also a bit of a barrier. Below that, absolute watts and CdA really begin to matter.

Riders like Pogacar, summer Vingegaard, Ayuso, Del Toro, Pidcock, climbing legs Evenepoel etc. are good on all length of effort, so the physiological requirement can't be that different. Even Pantani had a great effort on the Cipressa in 1999.

 

[Netserk]

Riders like Pogacar, summer Vingegaard, Ayuso, Del Toro, Pidcock, climbing legs Evenepoel etc. are good on all length of effort, so the physiological requirement can't be that different. Even Pantani had a great effort on the Cipressa in 1999.

pidcocks half hour plus is much worse , especially if it isnt a wait until the end burst

 

[Peyresourde]

pidcocks half hour plus is much worse , especially if it isnt a wait until the end burst

It is a bit worse, but he has really improved. I would rate him Top 10 (or almost) in contrast to Top 3 on short stuff. Still very good. You can also say Pogacar might be slightly worse on 60 minutes than on 20 minutes. All I am saying is that these riders are good on both. There are always individual difference how riders perform depending on several factors (duration, gradient, stage hardness etc.).

In general I think these differences might not be (much) bigger than normal daily fluctuations in form.

 

[Alien Performance]

I still have dreams about Padun in the 2021 TdF

It's always good to see some empirical confirmation of what the real enthusiasts of the forum always knew, that the 2021 Tour is forever asterisked due to the non-inclusion of Padun. That wasn't even his final form, there's gotta a be a great story to come out one day as to what actually happened and why he didn't go. Chris was asking the right questions at the time;

Don't really know because of the competition and speed but the Pidcock attack yesterday seemed... fast, dropped Gregoire and a very good Christen directly off the wheel with a fairly tepid Q36/FDJ leadout on an easy climb. Cipressa-bound perhaps?

 

[Red Rick]

I still love how Padun winning an HC MTF by 30 seconds over Richie Porte (who did nothing at the Tour that year), and like 40 seconds over Jack Haig is considered the most obviously glow in the dodgy performance in that year. It feels like a Russian psy op to me.

I'll use W2W here, but it has 9/10 riders doing their seasonal best, and 4 out of the top 5 doing their PBs that climb, with the exception of MAL who presumably got it in the Ventoux challenge.

 

[Peyresourde]

La Plagne is an obvious climb where many metrics overestimate the effort because of the high finish above 2000m. This is the kind of climb where my ranking shines at least a bit. La Plagne has a very favourable approach. Hence my negative adjustment. It was still a very good effort by Padun, he was also strong on Joux Planes the next day. Also, they were not really faster in the last Tour (though they climbed from further down). 30s + draft difference is also not that small.

I think I once heard a stat in 2023 that Roglic had won by more than 15 secs over all opponents on a mountain stage only once in his career up to that point.

It feels dodgy because he never did anything else.

(And about W2W: I will give them credit here. Their watts calculations have really improved recently, but everthing from 2023 or earlier on that site is almost useless.)

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

W2W has strange info for Contador

 

[Pozzovivo]

Not to go full Richard Thaler mode, but this anomalous climb would be interesting to hear your data and view on, @Peyresourde.

Prati di Tivo

• Tirreno 2021 – Pogacar (+4s)
• Giro d’Abruzzo 2024 – Lutsenko (fastest)
• Giro 2024 – Pogacar et al. (+19s)

From watching the races, Pogacar at Tirreno looks clearly strongest performance, by a big margin. Next comes the Giro 2024 group. Last is the Giro d’Abruzzo finish, where Ulissi paced Yates (for god knows what reason) to sprint against Lutsenko and then lost.

Notably, the top nine in Abruzzo included no elite climbers apart from Yates, who was returning from a serious concussion after UAE.

A simple hypothetical: given their level at the time, it is hard to argue that Pogacar and Vingegaard in 2024 would not have put at least two minutes, likely more, into Ulissi and Lutsenko on a 14.5 km, 7% climb.

If so, what would that performance look like in the charts? All time level?

 

[hayneplane]

Not to go full Richard Thaler mode, but this anomalous climb would be interesting to hear your data and view on, @Peyresourde.

Prati di Tivo

• Tirreno 2021 – Pogacar (+4s)
• Giro d’Abruzzo 2024 – Lutsenko (fastest)
• Giro 2024 – Pogacar et al. (+19s)

From watching the races, Pogacar at Tirreno looks clearly strongest performance, by a big margin. Next comes the Giro 2024 group. Last is the Giro d’Abruzzo finish, where Ulissi paced Yates (for god knows what reason) to sprint against Lutsenko and then lost.

Notably, the top nine in Abruzzo included no elite climbers apart from Yates, who was returning from a serious concussion after UAE.

A simple hypothetical: given their level at the time, it is hard to argue that Pogacar and Vingegaard in 2024 would not have put at least two minutes, likely more, into Ulissi and Lutsenko on a 14.5 km, 7% climb.

If so, what would that performance look like in the charts? All time level?

Was that the year they did a double loop of Prato Di Tivo in Tirreno which would certainly help explain lower absolute ascent times.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Was that the year they did a double loop of Prato Di Tivo in Tirreno which would certainly help explain lower absolute ascent times.

No, the route was pretty easy coming into PDT in Tirreno. Arguably easier than both the others but colder temps for sure.

 

[Peyresourde]

Not to go full Richard Thaler mode, but this anomalous climb would be interesting to hear your data and view on, @Peyresourde.

Prati di Tivo

• Tirreno 2021 – Pogacar (+4s)
• Giro d’Abruzzo 2024 – Lutsenko (fastest)
• Giro 2024 – Pogacar et al. (+19s)

From watching the races, Pogacar at Tirreno looks clearly strongest performance, by a big margin. Next comes the Giro 2024 group. Last is the Giro d’Abruzzo finish, where Ulissi paced Yates (for god knows what reason) to sprint against Lutsenko and then lost.

Notably, the top nine in Abruzzo included no elite climbers apart from Yates, who was returning from a serious concussion after UAE.

A simple hypothetical: given their level at the time, it is hard to argue that Pogacar and Vingegaard in 2024 would not have put at least two minutes, likely more, into Ulissi and Lutsenko on a 14.5 km, 7% climb.

If so, what would that performance look like in the charts? All time level?

Prati di Tivo has a very easy approach, similar to La Plagne which is very conducive to high watt performances. It is indeed an interesting case study. There is only one road up, so no double ascents. Here are the 3 climbs:

2021| Tadej Pogacar | 81 (-8): 6.45 W/kg for 36:06 on Prati di Tivo (~55% drafting)
2024 | Diego Ulissi | 79 (-7): 6.39 W/kg for 36:02 on Prati di Tivo (~50% drafting, tailwind)
2024 | Tadej Pogacar | 71 (-7): 6.19 W/kg for 36:20 on Prati di Tivo (~95% drafting, more tailwind)

This is still a relatively shallow climb (7%), so drafting the whole way up vs. doing it solo is a difference of ~0.3 W/kg = 12 points. In a big group the draft could even be bigger.

I think we can ignore the 2024 Giro ascent, it was just not paced very hard with Großschartner and Majka doing almost the whole climb and Pogacar just waiting for the sprint. He could have gone much faster that day.

In 2021, Pogacar went full gas and did a strong performance for March.

In Abruzzo 2024, Ulissi is the only outlier. Lutsenko drafted more and did a 76. This is high for him, but he used to do an altitude camp in April for several years and was then in his season best shape for Abruzzo/Sicily and Amstel. The other riders in the Top 10 did even less, and they are also good riders, so nothing to note.

Summary: The only outlier is Ulissi. Sometimes a rider just has the best day of his career. The performance is also not so much over the top that it is completely unbelievable. He used to be more of a puncheur with several deccent efforts on shorter climbs, and probably did not even try hard very often on long climbs. (But it does raise an eyebrow)

Pogacar (50 % drafting) on the same day as Ulissi, if he did 34 / 33 minutes:

[2024 | Tadej Pogacar | 97 (-7): 6.87 W/kg for 34:00 on Prati di Tivo (~50% drafting, tailwind)]
[2024 | Tadej Pogacar | 106 (-7): 7.13 W/kg for 33:00 on Prati di Tivo (~50% drafting, tailwind)]

So 2 minutes faster is easily possible for Pogacar in good shape, 3 minutes faster would be a bit sporty (but possible in PdB shape). Any faster probably would be hard, at some point even Pogacar does not have enough raw watts.

 

[Red Rick]

2021 he put 8 seconds into Yates and 29 seconds into the great Sergio Higuita, and less than a minute into known climbing specialist Wout van Aert.

That performance was very good, but it gets overrated a tonne because of the climbing time and because of how good Pogacar would later become.