Comprehensive Climbers Ranking

[Peyresourde]

On average right, not peaks?

Yes, these are weighted averages of their 10 best performances, but all my numbers (also the single climb performances in the OP) can be compared the same way to see the difference in w/kg. I already mentioned it somewhere before, but the difference between Pogacar and Evenepoel has consistently been around 0.4 w/kg since 2024 when both were in shape and went all out.

 

[Panda Claws]

He probably doesn't show up in the dataset but did Gilbert really become that much worse on hills after 2011?

 

[Peyresourde]

He probably doesn't show up in the dataset but did Gilbert really become that much worse on hills after 2011?

I don't have Gilbert in my dataset. The Cauberg is really too short to anlyze with my method. But he could not repeat his success in the Ardennes after 2011, so I assume he got worse. I think he also was substantially heavier in some springs in order to compete in the cobble classics.

 

[canina82]

Yes, these are weighted averages of their 10 best performances, but all my numbers (also the single climb performances in the OP) can be compared the same way to see the difference in w/kg. I already mentioned it somewhere before, but the difference between Pogacar and Evenepoel has consistently been around 0.4 w/kg since 2024 when both were in shape and went all out.

Maybe just in 2024. In 2025, I don't believe Remco has a single performance "just" 0.4 w/kg lower than Pogacar's performance.

 

[Berniece]

Maybe just in 2024. In 2025, I don't believe Remco has a single performance "just" 0.4 w/kg lower than Pogacar's performance.

In 2025 you can only compare climbs in Lombardia...

 

[Krzysztof_O]

On a 10% gradient 30 minute climb, 0.1 w/kg equals around 30 seconds difference (same amount of draft). On shallower climbs of 6-7 % a 30 seconds difference would be 0.12-0.13 w/kg difference.

So 0.4 w/kg would be a difference of ~90-120 seconds on a 30 minute climb.

These are just rough estimates that depend on draft, wind and climbing speed etc.

Pogacar put almost 80 seconds into Roglic on a 20-minute climb of Peyreguades (fresh TT effort, it was considered a good performance by Roglic), which is more or less consistent with those w/kg differences. OTOH only 68 seconds on a fresh 55-minute Ventoux climb was much smaller than average (maybe rest day after Pyrenees did its job, while Peyreguades was after difficult Hautacam day).

 

[Peyresourde]

Pogacar put almost 80 seconds into Roglic on a 20-minute climb of Peyreguades (fresh TT effort, it was considered a good performance by Roglic), which is more or less consistent with those w/kg differences. OTOH only 68 seconds on a fresh 55-minute Ventoux climb was much smaller than average (maybe rest day after Pyrenees did its job, while Peyreguades was after difficult Hautacam day).

We have already speculated about Ventoux (and longer climbs in general) erlier in the thread. The w/kg differences also do not specifically refer to fresh efforts, where the gap between the two should be slightly smaller on average anyway. Possible reason for smaller differences on Ventoux:

-Roglic had his best day of the year, better than Peyragudes in my Index
-Pogacar did not go as fast as possible (irregular pacing) and probably had an average day
-Gaps on long climbs seem to be smaller in general (%-wise), especially on Ventoux where the first 10 minutes are always in a bunch. This already reduces the potential gaps at the end.
- Pogacar may be relatively worse on long climbs, while 20 minute efforts are his bread and butter

Edit: And if you just took the time from Vingegaard's attack, it would a 68 second gap on a ~23 minute effort.

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar put almost 80 seconds into Roglic on a 20-minute climb of Peyreguades (fresh TT effort, it was considered a good performance by Roglic), which is more or less consistent with those w/kg differences. OTOH only 68 seconds on a fresh 55-minute Ventoux climb was much smaller than average (maybe rest day after Pyrenees did its job, while Peyreguades was after difficult Hautacam day).

Peyragudes also had shades of Combloux imo with riders below the top 3 especially being more affecting by fatigue and not doing great numbers

 

[Peyresourde]

Peyragudes also had shades of Combloux imo with riders below the top 3 especially being more affecting by fatigue and not doing great numbers

Yeah, TTs with climbs are really strange sometimes. many riders just can't perform on a similar level to a road stage. Peyragudes was a bit subpar from the other riders, but still an acceptable level. If you look at Combloux or also La Turbie in the Nice TT in 2024, the climbing level of many top 10 riders was absolutely horrible.

 

[canina82]

MTTs is where we see the w/kg freaks. I don't believe in fatigue specially when Roglic (who is, nowadays, the rider most affected by fatigue from the GC group) was clearly the third best. He gained 32" on Lipowitz after the first timing point. Lipo is known for being very resistant to fatigue. That's his main quality.
Pogacar and Vingegaard are just "that much better" than others IMO. I think Vingegaard was afraid to go all out in Mont Ventoux because he was afraid a similar scenario to PdB happened again.

 

[Peyresourde]

85% of Peyragudes was still a mountain TT, that's why watts were better than in more mixed TTs like Combloux and Nice. I also don't believe in fatigue (in this case), everyone (except for Lipowitz) was much better than the day before.
Red Bull probably also had the best set-up that day (TT-Bike almost on the weight limit without the space helmet) and Roglic was in the extensions the most.

 

[Netserk]

i know la plagne was a weird stage , very soft and a headwind on a not too steep gradient which made it quite tactical , but i think it also had big fingerprints from the day before all over it

which is also what i found so impressive from lipo

he didnt make it easy for himself on loze and yet he was also strong the next day

 

[Peyresourde]

i know la plagne was a weird stage , very soft and a headwind on a not too steep gradient which made it quite tactical , but i think it also had big fingerprints from the day before all over it

which is also what i found so impressive from lipo

he didnt make it easy for himself on loze and yet he was also strong the next day

That shows again why I do not consider fatigue from previous days in my model. The rider's recovery (at least from good GC riders) is often 100% for the next day and PBs are often reached deep into the third week. La Plagne is also a climb that suits the heavier riders a bit more (Lipowitz, Arensman).

Arensman on La Plagne was even more crazy than Lipowitz. He was awful on Ventoux, then better but still not good on the Loze stage and suddenly he does a clear PB on La Plagne. He was even confident enough already at the bottom of the climb to attack several times. Where did this confidence come from? Did he already know his legs were nuclear and the others were all bad??
To me, this was easily the most shocking performance of the whole Tour and maybe even the whole year.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Roglic is just a monster in fresh w/kg effort, I believe that in perfect shape and not affected by fatigue of the Hautacam stage he could have been even 20-30 secs closer to Vingegaard in Peraygudes, but that just my opinion. He doesn’t recover just like the other two, although high Kj expenditure in a stage is obviously a much bigger problem than his recovery right now.

Also Ventoux was a perfect stage for him, all Rogla fans knew that if there was a chance of following an attack of the two aliens it was in that stage and he was so close to initially make it despite bad positioning in Jonas acceleration.

My guess is that his fresh FTP in perfect conditions is maybe closer to Pog than that 0.45 w/kg and clearly much less to Jonas and better than evevrybody else in the peloton, but unfortunately for him, fatigue durability seems the main factor in these years.

 

[canina82]

Roglic is just a monster in fresh w/kg effort, I believe that in perfect shape and not affected by fatigue of the Hautacam stage he could have been even 20-30 secs closer to Vingegaard in Peraygudes, but that just my opinion. He doesn’t recover just like the other two, although high Kj expenditure in a stage is obviously a much bigger problem than his recovery right now.

Also Ventoux was a perfect stage for him, all Rogla fans knew that if there was a chance of following an attack of the two aliens it was in that stage and he was so close to initially make it despite bad positioning in Jonas acceleration.

My guess is that his fresh FTP in perfect conditions is maybe closer to Pog than that 0.45 w/kg and clearly much less to Jonas and better than evevrybody else in the peloton, but unfortunately for him, fatigue durability seems the main factor in these years.

A little bit like Contador post ban. Contador was the best w/kg rider in a fresh effort, even better than Froome but he would lose a lot of power after a hard race.
Who doesn't remember that strange MTT in Dauphiné (IIRC a hill of 3 km) where Contador raced without a powermeter and won the TT? A few days later, Froome just kicked his @ss.

 

[Netserk]

That shows again why I do not consider fatigue from previous days in my model. The rider's recovery (at least from good GC riders) is often 100% for the next day and PBs are often reached deep into the third week. La Plagne is also a climb that suits the heavier riders a bit more (Lipowitz, Arensman).

Arensman on La Plagne was even more crazy than Lipowitz. He was awful on Ventoux, then better but still not good on the Loze stage and suddenly he does a clear PB on La Plagne. He was even confident enough already at the bottom of the climb to attack several times. Where did this confidence come from? Did he already know his legs were nuclear and the others were all bad??
To me, this was easily the most shocking performance of the whole Tour and maybe even the whole year.

well the stage was super easy and arensman only went deep on glandon the day before , so he was much fresher than the others

i think he was badly affected by the hot weather

 

[Peyresourde]

well the stage was super easy and arensman only went deep on glandon the day before , so he was much fresher than the others

i think he was badly affected by the hot weather

He was definitely affected by the weather on Ventoux, but on the Loze stage it was already cool. And he was simply dropped from the break on Madeleine (despite trying). And the fact that it was a short stage makes it even more surprising, because Arensman was previously more the Ben O'connor type rider: Low fresh w/kg, but could hold decent watts for a very long time.

Then he suddenly improves his best pure w/kg effort (in my dataset) by at least 0.2 w/kg the next day.

(I think Arensman also said before that Tour that he had never done heat and strength training before. I wonder if that is a personal thing, or if Ineos in general don't do it. If that is the case, it is no wonder why they were outperformed in recent years.)

 

[Red Rick]

MTTs is where we see the w/kg freaks. I don't believe in fatigue specially when Roglic (who is, nowadays, the rider most affected by fatigue from the GC group) was clearly the third best. He gained 32" on Lipowitz after the first timing point. Lipo is known for being very resistant to fatigue. That's his main quality.
Pogacar and Vingegaard are just "that much better" than others IMO. I think Vingegaard was afraid to go all out in Mont Ventoux because he was afraid a similar scenario to PdB happened again.

Single stage endurance =/= recovery.

Plus I think that when riders are tired they will typically gravitate to their natural skillset more and it will be things outside of their comfort zone that go down more. Roglic is a natural TTer and a natural unipuerto rider, so a 24 minute MTT is right up his wheelhouse twice over.

I also don't think the W/kg estimates in the formula's for the MTT have corrected for the TT bikes, so power estimates of most riders in the top 10 minus Pogacar (because ofcourse Tadej Pogacar who lives by cycling rules of the 1840s) has yet discover aerodynamics

 

[Red Rick]

(I think Arensman also said before that Tour that he had never done heat and strength training before. I wonder if that is a personal thing, or if Ineos in general don't do it. If that is the case, it is no wonder why they were outperformed in recent years.)

Is that for real because holy *** how amateur hour can these top budget WT teams and riders get?

 

[Red Rick]

As for the 'small' gap on Ventoux, it's primarily because headwind in the exposed section causing Vingegaard and Pogacar to play more tactical games.

Plus I don't think Campenaerts was going super fast or anything.

 

[Peyresourde]

Is that for real because holy *** how amateur hour can these top budget WT teams and riders get?

I searched for the quotes again. He said that he did not do heat training 'this year' (2025) but had done it before. (Though only once per week which does not seem much). And he also said that he has indeed never done strength training!

They say the NFL is a copycat-league. I thought it was the same in cycling. Don't other teams think about doing the same when Pogacar gained 20 watts since he started to do strength training?

 

[Red Rick]

I searched for the quotes again. He said that he did not do heat training 'this year' (2025) but had done it before. (Though only once per week which does not seem much). And he also said that he has indeed never done strength training!

They say the NFL is a copycat-league. I thought it was the same in cycling. Don't other teams think about doing the same when Pogacar gained 20 watts since he started to do strength training?

Don't do it because riders claim it's the secret sauce. Do it because the basic science said it's beneficial like a decade ago.

Weight lifting is literally the oldest Dylan Johnson video you'll find on YT.

 

[Pozzovivo]

This is more of a perception driven narrative than a data driven one, but my impression is that Pogacar already showed a clearly stronger climbing level in the 2023 Tour than in 2022. That was partly masked by his preparation, and by the fact that Vingegaard was also exceptionally strong in that race. Pogacar seemed to carry that higher level into early 2024, improve slightly perhaps, and then by the 2024 Tour several riders appeared to be climbing at record strong levels.

I also suspect that Roglic’s apparent lack of “fatigue resistance” may be explained, at least in part, by his positioning difficulties in the bunch. On longer, harder, and more complex stages, that can plausibly contribute to his relatively weaker performances. It may not be primarily a physical limitation. In that area, both Pogacar and Vingegaard are excellent. So while some, like Politt, say Vingegaard is nervous, I do not think that is the right reading. Just about always makes the right split and wheel.

Addition: I also see many riders make a noticeable improvement when they reach 25-26 y.o. This is true lower down the results sheet also. I feel it is perhaps an incorrect assumption that we should expect improvement to be linear and marginal. For me, people appear at a new level, stagnate or hold consistent for a few years, then make another noticable step. Most often, the "big leap" comes around mid twenties. Last few years it's been riders born in 97-98-99. Now I think it will be 99-00-01.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Is that for real because holy *** how amateur hour can these top budget WT teams and riders get?

Meanwhile, the only riders who's been able to beat both Pog and Vingegaard from the GC group in the TDF mtns are both Ineos riders. C.Rod 23' and Arensman 25'

 

[Peyresourde]

This is more of a perception driven narrative than a data driven one, but my impression is that Pogacar already showed a clearly stronger climbing level in the 2023 Tour than in 2022. That was partly masked by his preparation, and by the fact that Vingegaard was also exceptionally strong in that race. Pogacar seemed to carry that higher level into early 2024, improve slightly perhaps, and then by the 2024 Tour several riders appeared to be climbing at record strong levels.

I also suspect that Roglic’s apparent lack of “fatigue resistance” may be explained, at least in part, by his positioning difficulties in the bunch. On longer, harder, and more complex stages, that can plausibly contribute to his relatively weaker performances. It may not be primarily a physical limitation. In that area, both Pogacar and Vingegaard are excellent. So while some, like Politt, say Vingegaard is nervous, I do not think that is the right reading. Just about always makes the right split and wheel.

Addition: I also see many riders make a noticeable improvement when they reach 25-26 y.o. This is true lower down the results sheet also. I feel it is perhaps an incorrect assumption that we should expect improvement to be linear and marginal. For me, people appear at a new level, stagnate or hold consistent for a few years, then make another noticable step. Most often, the "big leap" comes around mid twenties.

Your perception is clearly backed by data, Pogacar already got better in 2023. Progression is also often not linear. He was slightly worse in 21 and 22 than in 2020 from a pure climbing perspective although he had steadily improved as an overall rider, so an improvement in climbing was 'due'.

I do really think starting with strength training after 2023 helped him specifically, because it changed his body composition. If you assume he lost 2kg of fat and gained 500 gram of muscle in 2024 compared to 2022, then half his improvements are already explained.