Thanks to your question @Ulle97 I have finally been able to motivate myself enough to analyze all the Giro ascensions on Etna since 2011. The reason I hesitated so long is that I knew there had never been a great performance and that they literally use a different side of the mountain every single time.
It is really annoying to have to look up different segment details every single time.
The best performance was (as expected) Contador in 2011, but only with an Index of 71. All the other ascents were Indexes in the 60s with either a late attacker or a group arrival.
I have to agree with Red Rick and hayneplane. The main reasons for the small gaps there is the early position in the race and the fact that there is often no strong favourite in the Giro (and shallow gradient + some headwind)
It is really annoying to have to look up different segment details every single time.
The best performance was (as expected) Contador in 2011, but only with an Index of 71. All the other ascents were Indexes in the 60s with either a late attacker or a group arrival.
I have to agree with Red Rick and hayneplane. The main reasons for the small gaps there is the early position in the race and the fact that there is often no strong favourite in the Giro (and shallow gradient + some headwind)
Yes, the attack looked quite strong. But unless it is a monumental attack, I normally only analyze the whole climb and the pacing on Etna is always pedestrian.
I have segmented some climbs of course. As I said, unless it is a monumental attack, the Index for the whole climb is almost always higher than just for the attack. Exceptions for this are for example Vingegaard on Tourmalet in 2023 and Pogacar on Foscagno in 2024.
On first glance, Contador's attack seems to have been around 6.2 w/kg for 15+ minutes. Not that good, but it could be more as I did not check it very thoroughly.
- Apr 30, 2011
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to analyse it properly , youd need to take all segments into account
vingegaards attack on tourmalet was a much stronger performance than if the climb had only started in la mongie
thus one needs to have some model for how much the overall pacing affected the average
Of course I take in to account that the riders have climbed already at a certain pace before. But I do cap the maximum adjustment for that at some point and the way I do it is not completely scientifc.
The uncertainty and the effort required also go way up if you start segmenting a lot, so I only do it for some famous performances. I would be happy if someone managed to create a real model, but I imagine that would be very difficult and probably only possible by relying on Strava data, which many top riders do not publish (with power).
(My own calculations are mostly based on video timing and analysis. The videos often cut away from the main group causing you to miss something, sometimes there are also no clear geographical features that let you determine the exact location in the middle of a climb etc.)
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- Apr 30, 2011
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yep i also imagine that its very difficult to do so accurately ( maybe to a degree such that its a futile exercise )
i think a starting point could be two segments , as you often have a negative split before a strong attack . in that scenario the attack is usually full throttle and a pretty good test for capacity when the full context is taken into account
i think a starting point could be two segments , as you often have a negative split before a strong attack . in that scenario the attack is usually full throttle and a pretty good test for capacity when the full context is taken into account
- Aug 13, 2024
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What is the correct inference to draw from this?
View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/2021623274170655131
View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/2021623274170655131
Chris Froome | 73 (-6): 6.7 W/kg for 18:33 on Jabal Al Akhdhar (Oman 2014)
Nairo Quintana | 69 (-5): 6.57 W/kg for 18:36 on Jabal Al Akhdhar (Oman 2026)
The Froome performance was actually pretty good, especially for being in February. A similar level to Yates and Scaroni this year.
Quintana was in half decent shape in Oman, but clearly much worse than some years ago (2022 or especially 2020). Quintana also often peaks in February when he is still fresh. His level did not totally fall off the cliff like Froome's. But the combination of him getting worse and the field getting better is still bad for his results, obviously.
Nairo Quintana | 69 (-5): 6.57 W/kg for 18:36 on Jabal Al Akhdhar (Oman 2026)
The Froome performance was actually pretty good, especially for being in February. A similar level to Yates and Scaroni this year.
Quintana was in half decent shape in Oman, but clearly much worse than some years ago (2022 or especially 2020). Quintana also often peaks in February when he is still fresh. His level did not totally fall off the cliff like Froome's. But the combination of him getting worse and the field getting better is still bad for his results, obviously.
- Feb 20, 2012
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Both were unipuerto, which should make them easiest to compare, but it was raced at 46kph average in 2026 compared to 38kph average in 2014.
I think overall the effect of average watts in a calm peloton going up is one of the more difficult things to estimate the effect of
Yeah, that is impossible for me to estimate, especially since it is also different from rider to rider depending on their location in the peloton and their efficiency in moving through it.
The 2014 edition also had a bit more elevation gain, but I did ding it slightly harder because of the low average speed. In general, I rate all stages of similar length about the same if they are flat, regardless of the average speed (except for very big differences in speed like here or if there is echelon action).
- Apr 30, 2011
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that while the spread in the top has increased , we are also witnessing a peloton wide increase in power
- Jul 7, 2013
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Riders live and eat healthier but only the best guys follow true champion's diet.
- Apr 30, 2011
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armstrong also had to ask rasmussen what he had had for breakfast during the 2005 tour
- Jul 7, 2013
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- Sep 26, 2020
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It wasn't his fault the bikes were set up by the crew that later worked with Uijdtebroeks at BORA.
Today I have analyzed the 2013 Giro TT from Nibali. I think @Red Rick asked for it once. This TT has several extended flat sections and a descent, so the uncertainty is very high. According to my calculation, it is one of Nibali's best performances (he was in great shape in 2013):
Vincenzo Nibali | 78 (-9): 6.26 W/kg for 44:29 on Polsa ITT (Giro 2013)
(This inaccuracy could easily be +/- 0.2 w/kg)
Vincenzo Nibali | 78 (-9): 6.26 W/kg for 44:29 on Polsa ITT (Giro 2013)
(This inaccuracy could easily be +/- 0.2 w/kg)
Recently I have looked closer into some splits on famous climbs, especially for the 2024 Tour since @Netserk was interested in it. I have several climbs, but I will post Pla d'Adet and PdB here. This also answers the question (once and for all?!) whether Pogacar was much worse on Pla d'Adet than the next day or if it simply was a pacing issue.
As always, the reminder that splits are especially prone to inaccuracies, especially on Pla d'Adet where the 2 small descents are both in the second half.
Tadej Pogacar | 98 (+3): 6.81 W/kg for 27:50 on Plat d'Adet full
Tadej Pogacar | 67 (+3): 6.35 W/kg for 17:35 on Plat d'Adet bottom part
Tadej Pogacar | 106 (+12): 7.48 W/kg for 10:25 on Plat d'Adet top
A mighty impressive attack from Pogacar on Pla d'Adet (good candidate for strongest attack of all time), showing almost a similar level to PdB the next day. Vingegaard did a worse effort for the attack compared to the whole climb with 85 (+12): 6.93 W/kg for 11:04 (full climb 92)
Matteo Jorgenson | 78 (0): 6.86 W/kg for 14:10 on Plateau de Beille lower third
Tadej Pogacar | 73 (+3): 6.66 W/kg for 14:10 on Plateau de Beille lower third
Jonas Vingegaard | 100 (+10): 7.21 W/kg for 13:24 on Plateau de Beille middle third
Tadej Pogacar | 91 (+10): 6.99 W/kg for 13:24 on Plateau de Beille middle third
Tadej Pogacar | 94 (+15): 7.00 W/kg for 12:16 on Plateau de Beille top third
Jonas Vingegaard | 103 (+3): 6.93 W/kg for 27:34 on Plateau de Beille lower 2/3rd
Tadej Pogacar | 110 (+9): 7.00 W/kg for 25:40 on Plateau de Beille upper 2/3rd
Tadej Pogacar | 111 (+2): 6.89 W/kg for 39:50 on Plateau de Beille full
Vingegaards attack might indeed have been the most impressive attack ever that did not work (together with Pantani in 1994 on Hautacam). Pogacar's effort in the upper two thirds of the climb was basically equivalent to the whole climb according to my numbers.
Overall, Pogacar showed a similar level on both days, while Vingegaards was much stronger on PdB (although the shallower upper part of Pla d'Adet also suits him less).
As always, the reminder that splits are especially prone to inaccuracies, especially on Pla d'Adet where the 2 small descents are both in the second half.
Tadej Pogacar | 98 (+3): 6.81 W/kg for 27:50 on Plat d'Adet full
Tadej Pogacar | 67 (+3): 6.35 W/kg for 17:35 on Plat d'Adet bottom part
Tadej Pogacar | 106 (+12): 7.48 W/kg for 10:25 on Plat d'Adet top
A mighty impressive attack from Pogacar on Pla d'Adet (good candidate for strongest attack of all time), showing almost a similar level to PdB the next day. Vingegaard did a worse effort for the attack compared to the whole climb with 85 (+12): 6.93 W/kg for 11:04 (full climb 92)
Matteo Jorgenson | 78 (0): 6.86 W/kg for 14:10 on Plateau de Beille lower third
Tadej Pogacar | 73 (+3): 6.66 W/kg for 14:10 on Plateau de Beille lower third
Jonas Vingegaard | 100 (+10): 7.21 W/kg for 13:24 on Plateau de Beille middle third
Tadej Pogacar | 91 (+10): 6.99 W/kg for 13:24 on Plateau de Beille middle third
Tadej Pogacar | 94 (+15): 7.00 W/kg for 12:16 on Plateau de Beille top third
Jonas Vingegaard | 103 (+3): 6.93 W/kg for 27:34 on Plateau de Beille lower 2/3rd
Tadej Pogacar | 110 (+9): 7.00 W/kg for 25:40 on Plateau de Beille upper 2/3rd
Tadej Pogacar | 111 (+2): 6.89 W/kg for 39:50 on Plateau de Beille full
Vingegaards attack might indeed have been the most impressive attack ever that did not work (together with Pantani in 1994 on Hautacam). Pogacar's effort in the upper two thirds of the climb was basically equivalent to the whole climb according to my numbers.
Overall, Pogacar showed a similar level on both days, while Vingegaards was much stronger on PdB (although the shallower upper part of Pla d'Adet also suits him less).
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Yes, but I have capped the max adjustment for follow-up effort at +3, otherwise I would get some ridiculous results from time to time. You can see this on the PdB bottom third, where Pogacar gets +3 and Jorgenson 0 (because he did a death pull and stopped afterwards).
It is also obviously more difficult to adjust just for segments than for a whole climb and I also have less experience with it.
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