Contador 2010

[BigBoat]

Last year it was alll about beating the legend.

This year we're going to put him in the coffin and ship his a$$ home.

Along with Leipheimer.

By the time both realise what has been done onto them they'll need a psychological bailout from Oprah and Dr. Phil.

They must pay. And pay they will.

I quite like Contador, and I hope he beats Lance again just to make Lance more jealous... I'll be rooting against Team radio and for team non-radio (Astana).

 

[BigBoat]

Maybe a Sticky...

For this one.

 

[King Of Molehill]

Radio Shack's strategy is probably going to have them using attacks by Armstrong, Kloden and Leipheimer at different times because there are three of them and only one Contador. But it's hardly a two-team race, and Alberto has talked about how other riders in the race will also be competing against The Shack. Let's face it, if you want to finish in the top ten, you're fighting three or four guys on their squad.

AC only has to follow wheels this year. Last year he had to attack to put a stamp on things. So assuming he doesn't lose a ton of time on the cobbles of Northern France he's still the one going into the final epic mountain stages and final 50KM TT as the favorite so he really doesn't need to make the race. And Radioshack will be riding with one goal and that's for Lance to win the TDF so unless Lance provides his biggest miracle yet I'm sayin' AC can follow his wheel anywhere, anytime (except maybe the cobbles

 

[python]

i overheard the other day that contadors progress in time trials is largely due to some special work with his personal trainer. his name is pepe martin (sp?) or something like that.

honestly i never heard of the guy. googling was not much help.

does anyone know who this guy is?

 

[joy118118]

i overheard the other day that contadors progress in time trials is largely due to some special work with his personal trainer. his name is pepe martin (sp?) or something like that.

honestly i never heard of the guy. googling was not much help.

does anyone know who this guy is?

Pepe Martí?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/photos/astana-training-in-spain/100927

 

[python]

Pepe Martí?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/photos/astana-training-in-spain/100927

thanks. that’s much better

googling produced this very interesting (looking back) interview from 2008
http://stanford.wellsphere.com/biking-article/contador-no-plan-b-he-wants-the-tour/353978
…
Q: Any contact with Lance Armstrong?

AC: None whatsoever.

Q: Who do you work with in preparation?

AC: The same as last year. I am working with the trainer on the team (Pepe Martí) and now I am working closely with Alain Gallopin.

Q: What kind of changes have you made in training?

AC: I am working very hard on the time trial. Another thing I learned last year is that I have to become more consistent in the higher cols. I’ve been working very hard to improve my depth of strength and, from rides this year, I can already notice the difference.

Q: How important is it to improve in the time trial?

AC: I am optimistic at improving my time trial, maybe a little too optimistic. Last year I think I made important strides in improving on the time trial and this year I will demonstrate my new improvements on the road. I am working on improving my position, especially with the handlebars, to become more efficient on the bike, to become more aerodynamic. Improving my resistance is also key…

 

[Anonymous]

I had never heard of Pepi Martin until this morning. The original source for the story was astanafans.com, but I couldn't find it easily. I read it here

It's an excerpt about Contador's personal trainer coming up with training plans for the fourteen young (non-Vino) Kazakhs on the Astana team.

Also, Alberto started using his twitter account yesterday, and has tweeted his workout info yesterday in Spanish and today in both Spanish & English. The account is @AContador.

Hola a tod@s,hoy 160km de calidad por tierras valencianas,ahora a descansar!!!

Today 6:30' 210km 3500m/asc.Really good training all team do great job today.I'm very happy with the training camp.I feel goooood

They're making a real effort at trying to share more with fans. They've got the youtube channel, post regular press releases and photos on the website, etc., plus Specialized is trying to help with exposure on their website.

Does anyone have access to the Ride Bike Review interview? I went to the website, and the one issues was $12.95 plus 15 for shipping. That's a lot of unemployment benefits.

 

[deejay]

What I have read on this thread seems to cover most points like.
AC won the TDF despite Bruyneel and his guest rider.
The dirty tricks they played on AC and basically ignored him.
The guest was not even a paid member of the team and paid his own expenses for Equipment, Hotels and Minders.
AC was still his own man and executed his own plan to win anyway, cheers.

Now my reason of posting is (it may have been covered) that what worries me is, with the amount of money the texan has control over.
It could be unfortunate for AC if someone accidentally causes him to have to withdraw during the summer and not complete the course.
Think about it.

It must have been money to the UCI to allow rules to be bent so that a guest can attach himself to a Professional Cycling Team and join the Peloton.
In my years of being associated with this sport, I have never heard this happen before.
Feel free to educate me if there is a precident. ??

The texan has become the Celebrity of the sport (I'm sorry to say) and you all know that big money is involved if he wins number eight.
Do you think I'm off my trolley or does this point worry you.

 

[Carboncrank]

Well according to his biggest critic he has the mental strength of a champion:

The Team Sky sports director on duty in Adelaide is Sean Yates, who mentored the young Armstrong at the Motorola team, and who joined Brailsford's squad from Astana, where he had a ringside seat as Contador and Armstrong fell out during last year's Tour. Yates suggested that the Spaniard, who prevailed in their battle last year and is most people's favourite to do so again this year, has "a lot of Lance-like traits".

It was an observation that might, during his seven-year reign as Tour champion, have riled him, but the new, more mellow Armstrong seemed unruffled, although his response was revealing in its own way. "Perhaps Sean was talking about the fact that he's a strong character," said Armstrong. "Mentally, he's almost unbreakable. There were times in the Tour last summer where you thought he had to be fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race... And people thought: this guy's going to crack. And he never did. He was always tough the next day. He's a very strong young man."

It sounded suspiciously as though a strategy of Armstrong's had been – as it was in his seven Tour wins – to "break" his biggest rival mentally, despite the fact they were on the same team. With that no longer the case, the gloves can perhaps come off.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/jan/16/cycling-lance-armstrong-team-sky

I think this confirms what we all suspected.

See, this is what being frank and honest gets you. Personal, I thought it was cool that he was complimenting AC so throughly. And all you cranks see is some conspiracy.
If you've ever wondered why politicians learn to talk for hours and say nothing, this is exactly it.
If you say nothing, nobody can claim you meant something else.

 

[Carboncrank]

Radio Shack's strategy is probably going to have them using attacks by Armstrong, Kloden and Leipheimer at different times because there are three of them and only one Contador.
.

By golly gee, why did anybody other think of THAT before. LMAO

 

[UpTheRoad]

Well according to his biggest critic he has the mental strength of a champion:

The Team Sky sports director on duty in Adelaide is Sean Yates, who mentored the young Armstrong at the Motorola team, and who joined Brailsford's squad from Astana, where he had a ringside seat as Contador and Armstrong fell out during last year's Tour. Yates suggested that the Spaniard, who prevailed in their battle last year and is most people's favourite to do so again this year, has "a lot of Lance-like traits".

It was an observation that might, during his seven-year reign as Tour champion, have riled him, but the new, more mellow Armstrong seemed unruffled, although his response was revealing in its own way. "Perhaps Sean was talking about the fact that he's a strong character," said Armstrong. "Mentally, he's almost unbreakable. There were times in the Tour last summer where you thought he had to be fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race... And people thought: this guy's going to crack. And he never did. He was always tough the next day. He's a very strong young man."

It sounded suspiciously as though a strategy of Armstrong's had been – as it was in his seven Tour wins – to "break" his biggest rival mentally, despite the fact they were on the same team. With that no longer the case, the gloves can perhaps come off.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/jan/16/cycling-lance-armstrong-team-sky

I think this confirms what we all suspected.

See, this is what being frank and honest gets you. Personal, I thought it was cool that he was complimenting AC so throughly. And all you cranks see is some conspiracy.
If you've ever wondered why politicians learn to talk for hours and say nothing, this is exactly it.
If you say nothing, nobody can claim you meant something else.

Who was trying to crack him mentally? What things were going on in the race that were attempts to get into his head? Of any examples that are noted, how many came from his own team? None? All? I'm guessing all. All except one, that is. Hushovd's breakaway was really meant to break Contador, of course. The sprint points were just a ruse.

Didn't Armstrong just admit, without outright saying it explicitly, that he tried to break Contador? To sabotage him? Who were the people who thought, "He's going to crack?"

I may have misread the intent of the quote, but if your team is conspiring against you, isn't that a conspiracy?

 

[Publicus]

Who was trying to crack him mentally? What things were going on in the race that were attempts to get into his head? Of any examples that are noted, how many came from his own team? None? All? I'm guessing all. All except one, that is. Hushovd's breakaway was really meant to break Contador, of course. The sprint points were just a ruse.

Didn't Armstrong just admit, without outright saying it explicitly, that he tried to break Contador? To sabotage him? Who were the people who thought, "He's going to crack?"

I may have misread the intent of the quote, but if your team is conspiring against you, isn't that a conspiracy?

Certainly looks that way. I don't recall anyone else other than Armstrong with an assist from Levi Leipheimer.

Yes, yes it is.

 

[Carboncrank]

Originally Posted by Hibbles
Well according to his biggest critic he has the mental strength of a champion:

The Team Sky sports director on duty in Adelaide is Sean Yates, who mentored the young Armstrong at the Motorola team, and who joined Brailsford's squad from Astana, where he had a ringside seat as Contador and Armstrong fell out during last year's Tour. Yates suggested that the Spaniard, who prevailed in their battle last year and is most people's favourite to do so again this year, has "a lot of Lance-like traits".

It was an observation that might, during his seven-year reign as Tour champion, have riled him, but the new, more mellow Armstrong seemed unruffled, although his response was revealing in its own way. "Perhaps Sean was talking about the fact that he's a strong character," said Armstrong. "Mentally, he's almost unbreakable. There were times in the Tour last summer where you thought he had to be fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race... And people thought: this guy's going to crack. And he never did. He was always tough the next day. He's a very strong young man."

It sounded suspiciously as though a strategy of Armstrong's had been – as it was in his seven Tour wins – to "break" his biggest rival mentally, despite the fact they were on the same team. With that no longer the case, the gloves can perhaps come off.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010...trong-team-sky

I think this confirms what we all suspected.
/QUOTE]

Who was trying to crack him mentally? What things were going on in the race that were attempts to get into his head? Of any examples that are noted, how many came from his own team? None? All? I'm guessing all. All except one, that is. Hushovd's breakaway was really meant to break Contador, of course. The sprint points were just a ruse.

Didn't Armstrong just admit, without outright saying it explicitly, that he tried to break Contador? To sabotage him? Who were the people who thought, "He's going to crack?"

I may have misread the intent of the quote, but if your team is conspiring against you, isn't that a conspiracy?

I'll give you the benifit of doubt and say you didn't understand what he meant.

Lance was talking about breaking because of things that happen IN THE RACE.
"fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race."
Riders break during the race. Happens all the time.
His words are about what going on in the race. What riders do to each other. That in no way implies that they were trying to break him or game him away from the road. If you think that you are reading things into what he said that are not there.
I know you want to believe it but when he says;

"Perhaps Sean was talking about the fact that he's a strong character," said Armstrong. "Mentally, he's almost unbreakable. There were times in the Tour last summer where you thought he had to be fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race... And people thought: this guy's going to crack. And he never did. He was always tough the next day. He's a very strong young man."

He means "in the race"

 

[Publicus]

Originally Posted by Hibbles
Well according to his biggest critic he has the mental strength of a champion:

The Team Sky sports director on duty in Adelaide is Sean Yates, who mentored the young Armstrong at the Motorola team, and who joined Brailsford's squad from Astana, where he had a ringside seat as Contador and Armstrong fell out during last year's Tour. Yates suggested that the Spaniard, who prevailed in their battle last year and is most people's favourite to do so again this year, has "a lot of Lance-like traits".

It was an observation that might, during his seven-year reign as Tour champion, have riled him, but the new, more mellow Armstrong seemed unruffled, although his response was revealing in its own way. "Perhaps Sean was talking about the fact that he's a strong character," said Armstrong. "Mentally, he's almost unbreakable. There were times in the Tour last summer where you thought he had to be fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race... And people thought: this guy's going to crack. And he never did. He was always tough the next day. He's a very strong young man."

It sounded suspiciously as though a strategy of Armstrong's had been – as it was in his seven Tour wins – to "break" his biggest rival mentally, despite the fact they were on the same team. With that no longer the case, the gloves can perhaps come off.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010...trong-team-sky

I think this confirms what we all suspected.
/QUOTE]



I'll give you the benifit of doubt and say you didn't understand what he meant.

Lance was talking about breaking because of things that happen IN THE RACE.
"fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race."
Riders break during the race. Happens all the time.
His words are about what going on in the race. What riders do to each other. That in no way implies that they were trying to break him or game him away from the road. If you think that you are reading things into what he said that are not there.
I know you want to believe it but when he says;

"Perhaps Sean was talking about the fact that he's a strong character," said Armstrong. "Mentally, he's almost unbreakable. There were times in the Tour last summer where you thought he had to be fragile mentally because of things that were [going on] in the race... And people thought: this guy's going to crack. And he never did. He was always tough the next day. He's a very strong young man."

He means "in the race"

Ok, can you name a couple of events that were going on in the race that caused AC to be fragile mentally? Things unrelated to JB or his teammates.

 

[Anonymous]

A fresh article with power charts and detailed evaluation of Contador and others on the Verbier climb at the 2009 Tour. Translated by Google

535 WATT FOR 4'30''
Leading the pack, Jens Voigt began its final ascent to 30 km / h on a 6% slope. He passes the baton to Sorensen then Cancellara who has left hook group escaped. The pace is still supported, all the escapees are exceeded. Fränk Schleck accelerates. After 2.7 km climb, they are only 5 in head: Frank Schleck, Andy Schleck, Contador, Armstrong and Wiggins. The average power to 550 watts for the first 6 minutes.
Contador attacked violently after 3 km climb. He went alone. Andy Schleck is one second. Contador rapidly widening the gap by supporting an average power of 535 watts for 4min30s. A 4 km from the summit, Contador has 18s ahead of Andy Schleck and 46 seconds on the group led by Armstrong's presence with Klöden, Sastre, Nibali, Wiggins and Evans.
At the end of the climb, Contador continues on a pace to 440 watts. Armstrong falters. The American content of 390 watts on the last two kilometers. It is lagging behind Sastre, Wiggins, Nibali and Evans.

http://www.cyclismag.com/article.php?sid=5538

 

[Señor_Contador]

What I have read on this thread seems to cover most points like.
AC won the TDF despite Bruyneel and his guest rider.
The dirty tricks they played on AC and basically ignored him.
The guest was not even a paid member of the team and paid his own expenses for Equipment, Hotels and Minders.
AC was still his own man and executed his own plan to win anyway, cheers.

I don't think Alberto felt the team was playing dirty tricks on him... I presume by "they" you mean The Dirty Duet (LA & JB), in that case then yes, he smelled he was being set up and acted accordingly. But Alberto did not have ill feelings towards anyone else in the Astana cycling team though.

You have to understand that LA is an entity in itself. By this I mean his team is not only Astana or Radio Shack or whoever. LA's team is Christopher Carmichael, Johan Bruyneel, Paul Sherwin, Phil Liggett, a bunch of other individuals (I like to call them LA's bítches, which makes him Da Pimp) plus whatever team he happens to be riding for.

Sometimes LA's team is part of a cycling team and sometimes a cycling team is part of LA's team. Lance's team is interested in making money and spreading the Livestrong lifestyle, which is a worthy and admirable cause mind you, while the cycling team is interested in winning cycling competitions. Whatever the situation Lance is only confortable if he is # 1. Whether he is the strongest or not is irrelevant. Which explains what happened in 2009.

What happened last year is that, as you well point it out, LA's bítches started badmouthing AC well before the Tour in a carefully planned propaganda attack. Meaning they were trying to break the kid before the Tour to make room for him at # 1.

Rule # 1 of LA's ego: Lance must always be # 1.
Rule # 2 to infinity of Lance's ego: If Lance is not # 1 he must be made # 1.

So, whether you are an LA or a AC fan, I can't see how you can blame AC of anything. I mean, he won Astana, THE TEAM, the Tour de France. The only problem is that Lance's team could not profit from it, and that ate them up inside. Whether it was AC's attack on the Colombiére which caused him to drop Kloden or AC going rogue on Arcalís, it does not really matter, because The Lance Armstrong Show (aka the VS network), sure made it clear every two seconds that Lance was playing the perfect teammate role, subordinating his chances to win the TdF to that of Contador, who was given the role of rogue cyclist. And they played it to perfection. I mean, you have to have two basketball-sized cojones to minimize a major backstabbing like Lance's La Grande-Motte stage in which he told Popobítch and Zubeldia to push and then dropping Contador by 41 seconds and sort of equating Contador's attack on the Colombiére to the biggest act of betrayal since General Custer and Little Big Horn.

Now my reason of posting is (it may have been covered) that what worries me is, with the amount of money the Texan has control over.
It could be unfortunate for AC if someone accidentally causes him to have to withdraw during the summer and not complete the course.

There is always a possibility that one of Lance's bítches or someone paid by Lance or one of his bítches doing something stupid, sort of like what happened with Tonya Harding and Nancy Kerrigan back in 1994. The unrelenting, blind, profit-based fanaticism is there. All you need is a "spark".

Too bad he couldn't get Matthew McConaughey to ride with him at Radio Shack. Imagine McConaughey and Armstrong going up the Tourmalet, dropping Alberto while they take their shirts off... that would've been something Phil and Paul would've been drooling over (or jacking off to, who knows!).

Remember rules # 1 and 2.

 

[Señor_Contador]

In fact... there's speculation out there that Lance wants Matthew to join the team. They've been seen training around Rodeo Drive doing 5-mile bromance marathons, the kind Rock Hudson (rest in peace) loved to engage in.

Here are some pics of the "event":

 

[Señor_Contador]

Eat your heart out Ru Paul!!!!

 

[steelciocc]

13:22

Senior_C,

Your 13:22 comments are right on. Well said.

 

[gatete]

By golly gee, why did anybody other think of THAT before. LMAO

I;m sorry to say this, but isn't it time for you to get banned? I think you're deifinitelly getting all the ingredients mixed together.

 

[Carboncrank]

Popobítch
Too bad he couldn't get Matthew McConaughey to ride with him at Radio Shack. Imagine McConaughey and Armstrong going up the Tourmalet, dropping Alberto while they take their shirts off... that would've been something Phil and Paul would've been drooling over (or jacking off to, who knows!).

what are you? like, 12 or 13 years old?

 

[Carboncrank]

Originally Posted by Carboncrank
By golly gee, why did anybody other think of THAT before. LMAO

I;m sorry to say this, but isn't it time for you to get banned? I think you're deifinitelly getting all the ingredients mixed together.

This is your example of something to get banned for?

I've endured far far worse here.

I'm not the only one who thinks JB is a great DS. I'm not going to sit by and watch him slammed by someone who very obviously doesn't know his **** from his bucket on the subject.

 

[gree0232]

I don't think Alberto felt the team was playing dirty tricks on him... I presume by "they" you mean The Dirty Duet (LA & JB), in that case then yes, he smelled he was being set up and acted accordingly. But Alberto did not have ill feelings towards anyone else in the Astana cycling team though.

You have to understand that LA is an entity in itself. By this I mean his team is not only Astana or Radio Shack or whoever. LA's team is Christopher Carmichael, Johan Bruyneel, Paul Sherwin, Phil Liggett, a bunch of other individuals (I like to call them LA's bítches, which makes him Da Pimp) plus whatever team he happens to be riding for.

Sometimes LA's team is part of a cycling team and sometimes a cycling team is part of LA's team. Lance's team is interested in making money and spreading the Livestrong lifestyle, which is a worthy and admirable cause mind you, while the cycling team is interested in winning cycling competitions. Whatever the situation Lance is only confortable if he is # 1. Whether he is the strongest or not is irrelevant. Which explains what happened in 2009.

What happened last year is that, as you well point it out, LA's bítches started badmouthing AC well before the Tour in a carefully planned propaganda attack. Meaning they were trying to break the kid before the Tour to make room for him at # 1.

Rule # 1 of LA's ego: Lance must always be # 1.
Rule # 2 to infinity of Lance's ego: If Lance is not # 1 he must be made # 1.

Remember rules # 1 and 2.

I read things like this and cannot help but wonder why some people take such a delight, even desire, to see heros fall? LA beat cancer to win the Tour seven times, is an undoubtedly sucessful businessman, and you'd think, based on many of the posts from people who profess to have some sort of personal insight to the man that he was just publically revealed to be in cohoots with Somali pirates or something?

Honestly, do we really think that JB & LA are sitting around with professional psychs trying to figure out ways to destroy AC ... but doing so in a manner that makes them look good publically? Or is there an element of normal trash talking that goes in any high level sports rivalry?

I say enough already, and let's stay focused on what professional athletes can do and may do ON THE BIKE where it matters.

That being said, AC will not be as strong this year as he was last year. Whatever happened behind the scenes, it was pretty clear that AC was getting food, water, support, etc. from the team and the 'independant actions that he took were in places where AC was in a position of maximum benefit. The team never deliberately dropped him, leaving him in a come from behind situation. Next year, he will not have such a strong team, and if he does take independant action, it may not be in positions where he can gain maximum benefit as he did last year. He may still be the strongest, but he will be taken down a notch or two with the 'new' team.

That leave AC open to several riders. Andy Schleck seems passed over in most discussions, but he saw immediately where his weaknesses were last year, and he has no doubt been seeking to address those issues ever since. He will also have an incredibly strong and very dedicated team behind him this year. IF AC has been knocked down a notch or two, AS will clearly be up a notch or two and is just beginning to come into his full prowess.

Not too mention, if there is anyone who will benefit from AC and LA tearing each other apart, it will be AS.

There is also Cadel Evans. He may have a realtively weak team, but he has something to prove. He will be in the thick of the action throughout the Tour, but I think he may choose to sacrifice a shot at the overall for stage wins this year. One way or the other though, he will be a factor in the Tour.

Let's not forget Garmin and CV either. These guys largely stay under the radar, they always seem to arrive cohesive and with at least one strong man who slips into contention almost by stealth. Garmin is only going to get better, and if it isn't CV this year we will no doubt be left wondering about Garmin's newest whiz kid.

Finally, Lance's power is well above where it was this time last year. Whether you like or hate the guy, he is a fiercely driven and determined cyclist. He is obviously motivated his year, and he will be coming to the Tour with a chip on his shoulder.

This year's Tour is likely to be the best one in years!

 

[Hugh Januss]

I;m sorry to say this, but isn't it time for you to get banned? I think you're deifinitelly getting all the ingredients mixed together.

Being stupid and stubborn is not grounds for being banned, if he bothers you that much put him on ignore.

 

[ravens]

I agree. If we're talking tactics and strategy during the race Alberto was on his own this year. Bruyneel screamed at him in the team bus after the stage Kloden couldn't stay with him - how often does that happen to a race leader? He was in Armstrong's car for the final Time Trial.

I disagree that Contador was lucky (in general) the past three years. He spent a lot of 2008 hoping to ride the Tour, but was kept out, again. He was able to salvage the year big time, but I think he would have gotten more out of the Giro experience if the invitation hadn't been last minute and he'd been able to train for it and anticipate it.

Radio Shack's strategy is probably going to have them using attacks by Armstrong, Kloden and Leipheimer at different times because there are three of them and only one Contador. But it's hardly a two-team race, and Alberto has talked about how other riders in the race will also be competing against The Shack. Let's face it, if you want to finish in the top ten, you're fighting three or four guys on their squad.

But the sprint stages probably won't have much GC strategy, and the Time Trials are individual. A lot of guys will mix it up in the mountains, with the Schlecks and Wiggins, Sastre, Menchov, Evans, etc. Some days Contador will just stick with those guys. He'll attack when he feels good and can gain the most advantage. He'll hardly be on his own strategy-wise, as Martinelli managed different riders to four Giros and a Tour win. And someone in the team car will make darned sure he eats and drinks.

Astana has nine riders in mind to help Contador win. He and Vino won't race together before the Tour, but I hope Alberto will have riders from the other eight for Algarve, Catalunya, Pais Vasco and Dauphine Libere. Then we'll start getting answers in February.

I see him as having more upside potential than downside. The downsides are the cobbles, his teammates (not a lot new there since his old teammates weren't too handy either, at least at the tdf, but one can never know until they get some races under their belts), screwball management, and of course the same unknowns that anyone can face, sickness, injury, crashes, better dope testing.

I see a lot of potential for the upside, i think he learned a whole lot last year both at the tdf and at Paris Nice. The team is probably slightly more loyal, but again, seeing is believing. I think that he stands a much better chance of having a teammate willing to sacrifice for him this year than at the '09 tdf.

The bigger question is will Andy or some other rival improve from last year a lot. If so, then it could be very dicey. If not, then, all other things being equal, keep the rubber side down and stand on the top step in July.