Contador positive!!!!!

[theswordsman]

So has every other doper.

True. It was the part in red I was drawing attention to. In the past, he would go quiet and expect people to believe him or not. Giving permission to have all of his Tour samples retested at any lab they want is NOT something all dopers do. Nor is telling them they can retest when new tests become available.

Maybe it's a bigger deal for me because I suggested the retest part on his website hours before he did it. But if people want to discourage the posting of links to new information as it pops up, I'll stay away. I also posted the link to the Science Of Sports blog a few pages back, so it's not like I'm picking sides. But basically this whole forum can go to he ll for being anti-social. Cheers

 

[Der_Gestreifte]

Given its half-life, if he were doping with it in training it almost certainly would have shown up in another control.

Would it nessecarily have shown up?
I mean... the Aug 21 control didn´t show up until a few hours before some journalist (probably) would have made it public.

 

[slowoldman]

True. It was the part in red I was drawing attention to. In the past, he would go quiet and expect people to believe him or not. Giving permission to have all of his Tour samples retested at any lab they want is NOT something all dopers do. Nor is telling them they can retest when new tests become available.

Maybe it's a bigger deal for me because I suggested the retest part on his website hours before he did it. But if people want to discourage the posting of links to new information as it pops up, I'll stay away. I also posted the link to the Science Of Sports blog a few pages back, so it's not like I'm picking sides. But basically this whole forum can go to he ll for being anti-social. Cheers

Take it easy Francis, I was simply pointing out it isn't uncommon for the denials to come.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Why would Contador admit anything? His is a case of prisoner's dilemma with only one prisoner.

 

[Anonymous]

I haven't seen too many people looking for an excuse, or claiming that Contador didn't dope. I'm certainly not. What I do believe is that he was not using Clenbuterol, because it's easily detected and not effective for a cyclist.

Given the amounts in question, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he transfused blood which contained trace amounts of Clenbuterol from tainted meat. Who knows, maybe they found elevated amounts of DEHP from his baseline levels and that's why they drilled down to find something which yields a binary positive test, like some sort of steroid or stimulant?

The DEHP levels are a lot more damning, if they are indeed elevated. It's certainly not unlike the UCI to sweep things under the rug.

That said, if someone gets pulled over for speeding while robbing a bank, and he wasn't speeding, do you still punish him for speeding? Make the case for bank robbery, yes. Speeding, no.

I'm not in the habit of defending dopers, but I also believe in basic fairness. I simply don't see any possible way he was doping with Clenbuterol. Given its half-life, if he were doping with it in training it almost certainly would have shown up in another control.

That is why I referred to the German and French news reports. I believe he got it in a bag of blood. However, I do believe he was doping with Clen because from what I have read, it can be masked and wouldn't show a positive very long even if it wasn't masked. I think they drew the blood at the wrong time, but maybe it was tainted meat?...but I still take the popular interpretation of Occam's Razor and say that it is much more simple to add: Cyclist who has beaten known dopers + Clenbuterol + evidence of di(2-ethylhexyl) = Doping. If people want to add in the tainted meat, go ahead, but I am not buying it.

 

[Anonymous]

Given its half-life, if he were doping with it in training it almost certainly would have shown up in another control.

"After ingestion, clenbuterol is readily absorbed (70-80%) and remains in the body for awhile (25-39 hours). As a result of its long half life, the adverse effects of clenbuterol are often prolonged."

http://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/drugs_concern/clenbuterol.htm

I would say that half life isn't so extreme as to render its use illogical in a training setting.

 

[Cobblestones]

That is why I referred to the German and French news reports. I believe he got it in a bag of blood. However, I do believe he was doping with Clen because from what I have read, it can be masked and wouldn't show a positive very long even if it wasn't masked. I think they drew the blood at the wrong time, but maybe it was tainted meat?...but I still take the popular interpretation of Occam's Razor and say that it is much more simple to add: Cyclist who has beaten known dopers + Clenbuterol + evidence of di(2-ethylhexyl) = Doping. If people want to add in the tainted meat, go ahead, but I am not buying it.

Add to that the timing of the incident which coincides with a rest day.

 

[luckyboy]

From this CN story - http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/lequipe-raises-new-doubts-over-contador

"The investigators in Cologne are reported to be going through the Astana rider’s blood passport in minute detail in order to assess whether there are any anomalies."

Be nice if they did this with the values from guys that we've all seen. Don't even need minute detail for them..

 

[Anonymous]

Add to that the timing of the incident which coincides with a rest day.

Yep, my equation missed a variable. Thanks for pointing that out. So: Cyclist who has beaten known dopers + Rest day refill time + Clenbuterol + evidence of di(2-ethylhexyl) = Doping

 

[Escarabajo]

...
I'm not in the habit of defending dopers, but I also believe in basic fairness. I simply don't see any possible way he was doping with Clenbuterol. Given its half-life, if he were doping with it in training it almost certainly would have shown up in another control.

There is no possible way of knowing this. No Scientist can come and tell us what happened with certainty.

- We don't know if one contaminant was stable in one bag and not in the other one.
- We don't know if it was from meat he ate during training.
- we don't know if he used Clen during training (just because some of his friends from the inside could have alert him he was going to be tested. It happened with LA all the time, so why not with Contador. Maybe he was protected already by Patty.)
- We don't know if he actually ate the contaminated steak during the rest day.

There are too many unknowns and everything is possible.

Now if I were to judge by the story from Conti versus the Story from Lequipe and the German Radio Station, I'd go with the second one.

Each event is independent of the other one. So in Contador story you have 3 to 4 things that has to happen one after another in order to be possible. The first part of the story already doomed him because he said that the meat was coming from Spain and not from France so you almost reduced your chance of the second event to happen by 50%. The second event is the contamination of the meat in Spain. What is the probability of that happening? Maybe less than 20%. Well, the problem is that you already had reduced your chance by 50% by not consuming the meat in France, so now you are reducing your chance of the two events to happen one after another by 0.5 x 0.2= 10%. By this time you are already pushing the envelope for the third event to happen which is Vinokurov not eating. By that point we might get to below 5% chance of that happening.

Note that I did not the probabilities of the Clen stabilization in meat or blood because that actually happened, because that's what caused the positive with elevated certainty. So it would be around 100% certain by now.

Just my two cents.

 

[Cobblestones]

From this CN story - http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/lequipe-raises-new-doubts-over-contador

"The investigators in Cologne are reported to be going through the Astana rider’s blood passport in minute detail in order to assess whether there are any anomalies."

Be nice if they did this with the values from guys that we've all seen. Don't even need minute detail for them..

What is this quote about:

“the passport of the Spanish cyclist, which is chaotic at times, has provided no reason for suspicion”.

???

 

[slcbiker]

First of all...Contador probably does dope, most likely some kind of autologus blood transfusions or some microdosing of a version of EPO we've not yet heard of. And probably so do many other top pros, including Armstrong.

That said, there's alot of speculation. Without some idea of the environmental level of the plasticizer mentioned, as well as the rate of false positives, it's worthless for us to speculate if this is a good test. I can see this being a substance that's at least somewhat present in the environment, but that's totally just a guess.

Same issue to a certain extent with Clenbuterol. It sounds like this lab in Cologne is able to detect much lower amounts than are normally tested for. So we don't know if you ran a bunch of everyday folks (or cattle) through such a sensitive test if some percentage of them would show up with trace amounts from contaminents. Certainly there are a lot of chemicals floating around in the environment these days. Maybe Contador decided to take some vitamin pill that had CB contamination. He doesn't want to admit that, as that would sound really stupid, so instead he goes down the contaminated meat road, which sounds somewhat less stupid.

 

[luckyboy]

What is this quote about:

“the passport of the Spanish cyclist, which is chaotic at times, has provided no reason for suspicion”.

???

Yeah, that didn't sound too promising. Maybe its a mis-translation/mis-interpretation.

 

[nicholaaaas]

The DEHP levels are a lot more damning, if they are indeed elevated. It's certainly not unlike the UCI to sweep things under the rug.

how? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bis(2-ethylhexyl)_phthalate
it seems that lots of people have it in their blood

 

[nicholaaaas]

True. It was the part in red I was drawing attention to. In the past, he would go quiet and expect people to believe him or not. Giving permission to have all of his Tour samples retested at any lab they want is NOT something all dopers do. Nor is telling them they can retest when new tests become available.

Maybe it's a bigger deal for me because I suggested the retest part on his website hours before he did it. But if people want to discourage the posting of links to new information as it pops up, I'll stay away. I also posted the link to the Science Of Sports blog a few pages back, so it's not like I'm picking sides. But basically this whole forum can go to he ll for being anti-social. Cheers

wow we have the guy who broke the story in AU and Contrador's personal adviser in the the same thread

 

[131313]

That is why I referred to the German and French news reports. I believe he got it in a bag of blood. However, I do believe he was doping with Clen because from what I have read, it can be masked and wouldn't show a positive very long even if it wasn't masked. I think they drew the blood at the wrong time, but maybe it was tainted meat?...but I still take the popular interpretation of Occam's Razor and say that it is much more simple to add: Cyclist who has beaten known dopers + Clenbuterol + evidence of di(2-ethylhexyl) = Doping. If people want to add in the tainted meat, go ahead, but I am not buying it.

I don't know where you read that, but it had to be on the internet and not a text book. If you know of a way to mask any sympathomimetic amine I'd love to see it.

Occam's Razor would suggest that if there's 50 pg/ml of Clenbuterol in someone's urine, it got there via an external source. Sorry that doesn't fit the narrative, but that's what I believe.

If there are baseline levels of DEHP which differ greatly from his other values and the time of degradation varies after the rest day, then that's a completely separate issue, but this just doesn't add up.

 

[131313]

how? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bis(2-ethylhexyl)_phthalate
it seems that lots of people have it in their blood

Yes, they do. However, it enters the bloodstream much more readily via transfusions, and it also leaves the bloodstream much more slowly. The other ways it enters the body are through lung tissue or intestines, but it's metabolized much more by the time it reaches the blood.

A one-off blood test won't tell you anything, but the tend line is a different story. This really shouldn't be that hard to detect.

 

[Polish]

True. It was the part in red I was drawing attention to. In the past, he would go quiet and expect people to believe him or not. Giving permission to have all of his Tour samples retested at any lab they want is NOT something all dopers do. Nor is telling them they can retest when new tests become available.

Maybe it's a bigger deal for me because I suggested the retest part on his website hours before he did it. But if people want to discourage the posting of links to new information as it pops up, I'll stay away. I also posted the link to the Science Of Sports blog a few pages back, so it's not like I'm picking sides. But basically this whole forum can go to he ll for being anti-social. Cheers

Making these PR statements is very different from actually following through. If the AFLD etc called his bluff, Alberto could say "I want to allow you, but my lawyers and Fran insist that I do NOT sign the release. Darn lawyers, Sorry"

I also seem to remember Basso giving permission to look at DNA/Puerto data to some agency group that he knew would not / could not inspect.
And they did not.
But some other agency got him in the end.

 

[Darryl Webster]

I see a rather large hiccup in the transfusion theory..lets assume that the platisiser markers for blood bags are distinguishable from other platisers , ie can only come from blood bags.
The implication here is that via retrocative testing ( somat Contador has said he`s wiling to subject every sample in storage he`s given to) a huge number of riders would also test possitive for the plastisers. Infusion of all manner of LEGAL and PEDS is indemic in the upper echelon. Thouge the use of infusions has now been banned if a rider (or team) use this method of delivery for Legal supstances then use of PEDS it isnt. It`s breach of administration methodology. It might be treated the same as PEDS but it ISNT peds.
I dont think a ban on the grounds currently in the public domain is appropriete.
However. The realy possitive news here is that a salution to the prevention or at least something that goes a long way, to ending use of infusion methods IS possible.
With not a lot of effort on manufactueres part it would be possible to make blood bags that most definatly have a specific chemical signature only to be found in blood bags.
Somewhere I seem to have read ( probably New Scientist) this may allready be something being looked into.There are other applications for forensic tracing far more important than doping cyclists.
With international legislation to make said bags the global standard detection of transfusion would escalate to an unaceptable detection risk. PEDS or not.
Does Albert dope?..course he does. But this isnt strong enough proof.
I still smell a Rat...its all just to conveniant for a certain Texan.

 

[Teddy Boom]

However. The realy possitive news here is that a salution to the prevention or at least something that goes a long way, to ending use of infusion methods IS possible.

You know what they used to use for IVs? As soon as riders learn about the existence of a test, they change their methods to counter the test.

(edit for grammar)

 

[Darryl Webster]

You know what they used to use for IVs? As soon as riders learn about the existence of a test, they change their methods to counter the test.

(edit for grammar)

Scuppered by a humble jam jar!. making a comeback in ever team bus fridge.

 

[Anonymous]

I don't know where you read that, but it had to be on the internet and not a text book. If you know of a way to mask any sympathomimetic amine I'd love to see it.

Occam's Razor would suggest that if there's 50 pg/ml of Clenbuterol in someone's urine, it got there via an external source. Sorry that doesn't fit the narrative, but that's what I believe.

If there are baseline levels of DEHP which differ greatly from his other values and the time of degradation varies after the rest day, then that's a completely separate issue, but this just doesn't add up.

It was.

However, I notice you ignored the half life argument. It doesn't seem illogical at all to think he doped in training with Clen considering it is out of the body in less than 39 hours. And unless I completely misunderstand human physiology (which could be the case), levels of the substance would diminish over time, meaning the tiny amount could be at the far end of the time line. Sorry, but I remain unconvinced. Occam's Razor would suggest a cyclist who beat dopers probably dopes, and therefore when considering whether it was doping or tainted meat, the razor cuts to the doping side.

 

[menlo_guy]

If Contador is cleared of wrongdoing, then Fuyu Li should be cleared as well. Both were found to have the same amounts of Clenbuterol found (50 ng/ml). Not surprisingly, Dr. Douwe de Boer, the same guy who defended Li is also defending Contador.

I'm not naive that cheating is common in cycling, but I believe Contador is clean because I believe Fuyu Li never intended to take Clenbuterol either. Li was a low level rider for RadioShack who tested positive during a small one day race (Dwars door Vlaanderen). He finished 122 out of 126 that day. If Li was trying to cheat with Clenbuterol, it certainly didn't help.

Admittedly, if someone told me that steak caused them to test positive, I would say that sounds like "the dog ate my homework". But in this case, with more details, I do believe Contador and Li.

It sucks that people read headlines like "Contador tests positive for drugs" and immediately make judgments. People who hate Contador love this stuff. And I'm sure Lance Armstrong fans don't mind. Newspapers will print the allegations in 2 inch headlines, but few will ever print the story "Contador found not guilty".

 

[The Hitch]

I hope WonderLance comes to make a comment while the scandal is still fresh.

 

[icefire]

Interview with Astana's cook from 23rd of July 2010:

http://www.sport.es/default.asp?idpublicacio_PK=44&idioma=CAS&idtipusrecurs_PK=7&idnoticia_PK=722519

Last paragraph: during the three days they were at the Novotel in Lescar (next to Pau) he wasn't allowed to use the hotel kitchen. He had to make it do with a kitchen in a van. He went to the market at Pau to buy meat. No comment about French meat quality and no mention of meat coming from Spain.