Contador vs Froome 2015

[LaFlorecita]

Correct me if I'm wrong, people, but Froome seems to be the only rider who dropped Contador in a duel.
I can't remember if Contador has ever lost half a minute in this manner?

Contador has been dropped many times before, by Ricco, Rasmussen, Schleck, Evans. The field was just a lot better than it is in this race, so there were other riders involved. I can't see why it matters.

 

[staubsauger]

Correct me if I'm wrong, people, but Froome seems to be the only rider who dropped Contador in a duel.
I can't remember if Contador has ever lost half a minute in this manner?

As much as I like Froome. I can't stay that!

 

[sir fly]

As much as I like Froome. I can't stay that!

I really don't remember a case of Contador being dropped when he stays with just one rival on an summit finish.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I really don't remember a case of Contador being dropped when he stays with just one rival on an summit finish.

Does it matter?

 

[GuyIncognito]

Considering the usual form peaks of people who aim for Tour and Giro (Contador will be peaking for the Giro and Tour, while Froome will peak for the March/April stage races, then rest, then peak again for the Tour) and given how Contador is unlikely to be in top form after the Giro, it seems there will only be two races this season where they will race each other while on similar form:

Tirreno and Catalunya......is it March yet?

 

[Netserk]

Considering the usual form peaks of people who aim for Tour and Giro (Contador will be peaking for the Giro and Tour, while Froome will peak for the March/April stage races, then rest, then peak again for the Tour) and given how Contador is unlikely to be in top form after the Giro, it seems there will only be two races this season where they will race each other while on similar form:

Tirreno and Catalunya......is it March yet?

Don't you contradict yourself? If Froome's secondary peak is in March while Contador's isn't, how are they going to be in equal form in March?

 

[Krebs cycle]

I was wondering if there would be a thread which also includes Nibali and Quintana?

Nibali, Froome and Contador are all in the age zone where they should be at the peak of the career, whereas Quintana whilst being a bit younger, remains a serious threat in any race in which climbing outweighs TT opportunity.

Do Quintana and Nibali deserve to be considered in the same thread as Froome and Contador, or do people think that they're not quite at the level required to seriously challenge for overall TdF honours?

If all four remain injury free this season, I'm hoping for one of the most exciting years of racing in a long time.

 

[Krebs cycle]

Newsflash people, form is erratic.

The coefficient of variation of competitive performance of elite athletes in endurance sports is typically around 0.6-1.4%.

Sucks when science gets in the way of good story.

Variability of competitive performance of elite athletes: a systematic review.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108349

 

[movingtarget]

The coefficient of variation of competitive performance of elite athletes in endurance sports is typically around 0.6-1.4%.

Sucks when science gets in the way of good story.

Variability of competitive performance of elite athletes: a systematic review.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108349

Scientific theories and so called facts have more variability than that.

 

[SeriousSam]

I was wondering if there would be a thread which also includes Nibali and Quintana?

Nibali, Froome and Contador are all in the age zone where they should be at the peak of the career, whereas Quintana whilst being a bit younger, remains a serious threat in any race in which climbing outweighs TT opportunity.

Do Quintana and Nibali deserve to be considered in the same thread as Froome and Contador, or do people think that they're not quite at the level required to seriously challenge for overall TdF honours?

If all four remain injury free this season, I'm hoping for one of the most exciting years of racing in a long time.

That's a good point. Mods, please change the title to

"Contador vs Froome 2015. Also, Quintana. Possibly even Nibali"

 

[May0maniac]

Contador has been dropped many times before, by Ricco, Rasmussen, Schleck, Evans. The field was just a lot better than it is in this race, so there were other riders involved. I can't see why it matters.

Yes, you can't domitate every stage against strong competition.
Purito also dropped him on Bola del Mundo in the 2012 Vuelta, but Alberto had a confortable lead in the GC, same with Ricco, he was able to win a few battles but Alberto was able to win the war.

 

[Red Rick]

The coefficient of variation of competitive performance of elite athletes in endurance sports is typically around 0.6-1.4%.

Sucks when science gets in the way of good story.

Variability of competitive performance of elite athletes: a systematic review.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108349

Interesting read

Does CV mean the same here as σ? If that's the case you could have an up to 5 percent difference between an above average and below average performance, for both athletes, so the variation of the difference is bigger. The nature of road cycling is just that it's all so hard to compare and estimate.

 

[Krebs cycle]

Scientific theories and so called facts have more variability than that.

Have fun with the anti-vaxxers, climate change deniers and creationists in your little anti-science fairyland.

 

[Krebs cycle]

Interesting read

Does CV mean the same here as σ? If that's the case you could have an up to 5 percent difference between an above average and below average performance, for both athletes, so the variation of the difference is bigger. The nature of road cycling is just that it's all so hard to compare and estimate.

To be fair, your post depends on an understanding of the time course. Form over an entire season definitely goes up and down (heck anyone who trains knows that form goes up and down with training... its not rocket science), and importantly, the vast array of studies which show low variability of competitive performance are dependent on true maximal efforts. In pro cycling, I think it is clear that not every cyclist is riding to win every race. Therefore, what may appear as "erratic form" could simply be team tactics, or a longer term goal of racing to train rather than racing to win in some cases (eg: racing when you're not properly rested up for example).

CV is the SD of ones own performances as a percent of the mean eg: if your average power across five TTs is 300W and the SD is 10W, that is a CV of 3%.

 

[Red Rick]

That seems about right

 

[Ataraxus]

Yes, you can't domitate every stage against strong competition.
Purito also dropped him on Bola del Mundo in the 2012 Vuelta, but Alberto had a confortable lead in the GC, same with Ricco, he was able to win a few battles but Alberto was able to win the war.

Just one tiny correction: Rodriguez won all the battles bar one (ITT excluded), not only Bola.

 

[Carols]

Just one tiny correction: Rodriguez won all the battles bar one (ITT excluded), not only Bola.

Yeah but that one was worth 2:30!!!

 

[movingtarget]

Have fun with the anti-vaxxers, climate change deniers and creationists in your little anti-science fairyland.

Twice wrong try for a third. Science is notorious for fitting results around a theory. I just don't believe this report. I think the variation is bigger.

 

[nepetalactone]

Science is notorious for fitting results around a theory.

Well, kind of the opposite actually. All good science realizes that data comes first and acts as the baseline and ultimate arbiter of quality for for any model.

 

[Krebs cycle]

Twice wrong try for a third. Science is notorious for fitting results around a theory. I just don't believe this report. I think the variation is bigger.

Either you are trolling or you're seriously deluded about the nature of reality. It's not possible to have a rational discussion following this post. There is no difference here than trying to have a conversation about genetic evolution with a literal creationist who believes the earth was created about 6000 yrs ago.

 

[SeriousSam]

There is a huge difference between doubting the relevance of a estimated sigma/mu for some performance metric for sports in general to the discussion as to whether Contador getting soundly beaten by Froome a day after he beat him is within normal variation in cycling performance and being "anti-science".

 

[PremierAndrew]

That's a good point. Mods, please change the title to

"Contador vs Froome 2015. Also, Quintana. Possibly even Nibali"

Pretty unfair on Nibali. Don't forget what happened on the cobbles last year, and guess what, there are cobbles this year too

This video sums up Froome v Contador v Quintana v Nibali pretty nicely imo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

 

[King Boonen]

The coefficient of variation of competitive performance of elite athletes in endurance sports is typically around 0.6-1.4%.

Sucks when science gets in the way of good story.

Variability of competitive performance of elite athletes: a systematic review.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108349

This is a very interesting paper, is it worth starting another thread to discuss it?

I've briefly looked at the data they used and I have some problems with correlating that with elite cyclists across an entire season, but don't want to clog this thread with discussion.

 

[ILovecycling]

I was wondering if there would be a thread which also includes Nibali and Quintana?

Nibali, Froome and Contador are all in the age zone where they should be at the peak of the career, whereas Quintana whilst being a bit younger, remains a serious threat in any race in which climbing outweighs TT opportunity.

Do Quintana and Nibali deserve to be considered in the same thread as Froome and Contador, or do people think that they're not quite at the level required to seriously challenge for overall TdF honours?

If all four remain injury free this season, I'm hoping for one of the most exciting years of racing in a long time.

The thing with Nibali and Quintana is logical imo.I believe that in the spring they won't come any close to Ac and Cf.Maybe Nibali at lbl,but I think they will be crying out in TA,I dont think Nibali form is good enough nor is Quintana's.Im worried that the little injufy he had could ruin his preparation and he should skip Adriatico also.

 

[sir fly]

Should we begin with the countdown, already?
Any news about the duo?