Contador will not win the TDF?

[LaFlorecita]

Lanark point is with rogers knowledge of marginal gains and riis magic they will be unstoppable.

I hope this is the case, majka and rogers perfomances give me hope, zam it would be funny because you would get a Berto avatar forever

 

[Shardi]

Wiggo setting the pace while dawg reel contador back -> repeat.

SKY in general, dawg in particular - holding ground and stamping his authority on the TTs.

 

[roundabout]

Nobility does not set pace for the commoners.

 

[xrayvision]

Contador will not be a factor in this years tour.

A 7 times gran tour winner, whos whole season is planned on winning the tour, wont be a factor? That means not even a podium if hes not a factor...

Stick to bridge.

 

[Franklin]

I think your attempt to dismiss statistics is hilarious.

The forum discussions are neve built around statistics, because statistic is an unshakable feature no one can argue with.

Ohhhh so you actually backpedal as you acknowledge you can't dismiss it? An appology that I'm actually rather objective seems to be in place

Discussions are built around different opinions. IMO, the opinion which is based on pure statistics is not opinion, because it contains zero personal stance.

I know, it's just objective you know. Be a man retract the"zero objectivity and hot preference". Oh and thank you for admitting you are absolutely not objective and just dsucussing on your own preferences.

If you offer to rely on criteria of statistics, Contador will still stay a GT #1 favorite for many years.

Considering less than a year ago he beat Froome to snot even without any races under his belt this seems the most logical stance.

I'm absolutely wondering what is going through your mind when you are trying to put this as faulty reasoning.

Oh and another stats thingy: check how extraordinary spring campains relate to TdF wins. Report back to us and dismiss this beause that's just "statistics"

 

[roundabout]

Right, so Little Wall will also beat Froome according to the same Franklin "logic".

 

[Netserk]

How many GTs has he won? Did he beat Froome in the ITT?

 

[roundabout]

The bigger point that you seem to fail to grasp (along with Franklin) is that the last Vuelta is not an indicator of relative ability for various reasons.

Otherwise, Murito would be a bigger favorite to win the Tour than Froome.

 

[Netserk]

Did he manage to beat Froome in the ITT? No.

So no Purito is not a bigger favourite than Froome.

 

[Ferminal]

Purito put 10 minutes into Froome in the mountains... Is he going to lose that in one flat ITT?

Maybe Andrew Talansky really will win the Tour.

 

[airstream]

I think your attempt to dismiss statistics is hilarious.

No, sorry, I didn't wanna be harsh. Sorry if it looked so. I'm just a very cheerful person and I tried to say in this post you rather demonstrated who you prefer to win than 'why Contador won't win'.

An appology that I'm actually rather objective seems to be in place

OK. Let's put it other way. In your view, Contador's 5(7) wins make him automatically #1 fav 'cos Froome's never won a GT so far, right?

Considering less than a year ago he beat Froome to snot even without any races under his belt this seems the most logical stance.

Alright, you sound more and more in so many words. In short, Froome's victory will be sensation for you.

Oh and another stats thingy: check how extraordinary spring campains relate to TdF wins. Report back to us and dismiss this beause that's just "statistics"

You put from my words only that part you wanted to dispute.

 

[airstream]

The bigger point that you seem to fail to grasp (along with Franklin) is that the last Vuelta is not an indicator of relative ability for various reasons.

Otherwise, Murito would be a bigger favorite to win the Tour than Froome.

What do you think on Valverde chances? I suppose the podium will be Froome - Rodriguez - Contador, though I'd prefer Schleck-Zubeldia-Froome or... Froome-Wiggins-Porte.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Statistics and past performance is useful to form one's opinion but it's not everything..seems to be the conclusion. Where would we be if we don't have the past. As donovan puts it ... histories of ages past...unenlightened shadows cast...down through all eternity....the crying of humanity.

 

[airstream]

I think redundant conservatism is laid in reliance on the past. Such people are afraid of the future. The past must be considered but can't be the main control point

 

[xrayvision]

What do you think on Valverde chances? I suppose the podium will be Froome - Rodriguez - Contador, though I'd prefer Schleck-Zubeldia-Froome or... Froome-Wiggins-Porte.

The last is the most likely...for a various numbers of reasons.

 

[Pricey_sky]

What do you think on Valverde chances? I suppose the podium will be Froome - Rodriguez - Contador, though I'd prefer Schleck-Zubeldia-Froome or... Froome-Wiggins-Porte.

Good outside chance for the podium. Many predict Froome-Contador-Purito however I believe there could be one surprise there. A part of me still wants Schleck to podium, it would be a great comeback.

 

[airstream]

The last is the most likely...for a various numbers of reasons.

I was reasoning the same way during 07-11...

 

[Jelantik]

Froome has gone up a level. Contador has gone down a level. Both are equal in mountains just like Contador & Schleck in 2010. Froome will win it through TTs

Are we going to just base this argumant on Contador vs Froome the first half of the season performance? Everyone also said that based on Froome's TDF he'll be a major threat in Vuelta. Everyone also said that he would smash the TT at the Vuelta where he could gain time and possible took la vuelta (even though he got TDF leg). Well, we saw how it all happens. Even purito was expected to loose badly for TT based on his past performance, managed to hang on the red jersey until he was napping at Fuente De.

I'm not going to quickly say that contador is suddenly becomes an average climber that every one can smack him around when it comes to climbing just because his first season performance. Give him a little credit. He is better than that.

 

[ILovecycling]

Okay, fair enough. Just to clarify, my post wasn't directed at you. Just appreciating ILovecycling continuing to believe in Contador too the end.

Thanks for appreciation Afrank.To explain it completely,I believe in him because his willpower.I dont think he will be in good form,imo it will be like Vuelta 12 or Giro 08 form,but still I think he will win.I dont think about Wiggins x Froome,or Sky bs coz you never know.
My only doubt is TT,in this form he will lose at least 1 minute to Froome,but I think he can make it in the mountains.

"Second place is not good"

Still I hope Andy will perform in the mountains a bit (stage win),and of course my wild card - Quintana.

 

[Boeing]

Contador won't win, but this will be the reason.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RHsW_dnHBo&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Nice. Although "feeling mortal" would have been a better option

 

[IndianCyclist]

Are we going to just base this argumant on Contador vs Froome the first half of the season performance? Everyone also said that based on Froome's TDF he'll be a major threat in Vuelta. Everyone also said that he would smash the TT at the Vuelta where he could gain time and possible took la vuelta (even though he got TDF leg). Well, we saw how it all happens. Even purito was expected to loose badly for TT based on his past performance, managed to hang on the red jersey until he was napping at Fuente De.

I'm not going to quickly say that contador is suddenly becomes an average climber that every one can smack him around when it comes to climbing just because his first season performance. Give him a little credit. He is better than that.

Last year Vuelta Rodriguez was able to match him in the mountains and in fact he lost time to Rodriguez due to sprints. 2008 he dropped Rodriguez like he was standing still.

 

[Jelantik]

Last year Vuelta Rodriguez was able to match him in the mountains and in fact he lost time to Rodriguez due to sprints. 2008 he dropped Rodriguez like he was standing still.

No doubt about that fact. But those are past performance. This year TDF are full with long and steady climb instead of short, steep and explosive. As far as I can remember, Alberto is never good at sprint after the climb. His ammo is always been dropping his rivals in the climb and rides solo to the finish. I know Purito and valverde are very quick in the sprint department. (i guess that's why they always are contenders in the classics). But hey I could be wrong. I don't consider myself as being historically and rule/regulations oriented cycling expert.

 

[airstream]

Last year Vuelta Rodriguez was able to match him in the mountains and in fact he lost time to Rodriguez due to sprints. 2008 he dropped Rodriguez like he was standing still.

It's not a sign of degress, it's just the things that always change. No one can dominate many many years. Moreover no GT man who would be able to be among 3-4 best GC riders during more than 5-6, maximum 7 years. The contention is too tight. Probably Cadel and Ulle are the only exceptions in this regard. They had their breaks, though. So, to me it's rather a matter of number of years on top than a matter of age. Purito fires today exactly because he relatively saved himself more in the early phase of career. I don't know whether it relates to Contador. Just general observation.

 

[LaFlorecita]

It's not a sign of degress, it's just the things that always change. No one can dominate many many years. Moreover no GT man who would be able to be among 3-4 best GC riders during more than 5-6, maximum 7 years. The contention is too tight. Probably Cadel and Ulle are the only exceptions in this regard. They had their breaks, though. So, to me it's rather a matter of number of years on top than a matter of age. Purito fires today exactly because he relatively saved himself more in the early phase of career. I don't know whether it relates to Contador. Just general observation.

Alberto also saved himself by not racing a lot of races.

 

[iZnoGouD]

This poll should have multiple options, i would pick 3
Andy won't be able to compete with him unfortunatly