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Contadors recovery

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Mar 20, 2009
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biker77 said:
I am amazed how fast the top riders rode ventoux. The first 5km appeared to take about 6 minutes (no, not an actual statement of fact, but the km disappeared quite rapidly). I think they were told to slow down, as ventoux in 15 minutes would have raised quite a few flags.

I had a geek moment too and had a watch on them on Ventoux. From St Esteve to the top : 49 minutes. Several minutes slower than the splits from "that" Dauphine TT a few years ago.

From 15k out to 10k out : 15'25"
From 10k out to 5k out : 16'28"
Last 5k 14'44"

The pace through the trees was very high (check out the SRM traces from the Saxo domestiques on their site). That 15'25" is for about 475m vertical (albeit steep). There was a bit of tactical dithering after that when contador and schleck jr were waiting to see whether LAS and Schleck Sr could come across (they couldn't, and it all came back together - Peli caught and passed them all), then I think the wind got them higher up - it's not so steep up there.
 
Laszlo said:
I want to say that I was really surprised by Contadors ability to recovery during the final week of the tour. It seemed to defy the logic of the fatigue experienced by all of us on a day following an extreme effort. That he made an extreme effort on the day prior to the final time trial, I expected a less than stellar result. But beating Cancellera ? Does he think he's Floyd ?

:D Contador was never really under pressure in the final week, so it's normal that he recovers best since he doesn't have as much to recover from. Obviously Contador doped, but if you're looking for miraculous recoveries I'd be looking at the 37yo that took a kicking in a couple of mountain stages and kept coming back for more. In fairness Cancellara did a lot of work for Saxo on a few of the mountain stages and would have been fairly tired; plus GC riders often dominate the final ITT results when everyone is tired.


I am waiting for news from the lab to be published.

Is that a joke? Freaking hilarious. You'll have a long wait for news of anyone on one of Bruyneel's teams testing positive - next year when he's on another team he may well go down. These boys have all the bases covered: the most cutting-edge doping technology plus the best contacts in high places.

It's probably not HGH anymore: IGF-1 looks better and less detectable. There either is, or soon will be, a reliable test for HGH and then there will be retro-testing... normally Bruyneel has this base covered via his friends at the UCI, but there's always the risk that one of the labs manages to get a leak out so it's always better to keep moving. Personally I'd be surprised if the top teams were still autologously blood doping or even using rEPO, they will have moved on by now to HBOCs or PFCs no doubt about it: more convenient, potentially more effective, and much less risky (in terms of getting caught.)
 
Jul 19, 2009
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I Watch Cycling In July said:
Saw these kinds of comments straight after race and had a geek analysis episode.

Lined up TDF 08 & 09 ITT times for riders who did both, adjusted for race length, adjusted for Cancellara = time 0....looks like Cance was an average of 25s further ahead of the rest of the field in 2008.....so I adjusted accordingly.

Then I cross checked the validity of this adjustment...of the 7 riders that finished within 5 places of their position last year (top 60 only), the mean time difference between ITTs for 08 & 09 is 0.4" ..........so adjustment for Cance at 25" down in 09 seems valid. (For fellow geeks: sample standard deviation = 15s. For fellow TRUE geeks, I cut off the lower places because, unsurprisingly, the distribution for longer 08 race had a fatter tail)

Not saying AC isn't jacked, just saying data suggests Cance was not on top form. It's probably more reasonable to debate whether AC 22" behind Cance is normal for him (whatever that means), not 3" up.

Also, looked at Andy Shlecks time, by my calc he improved 41s on last years ITT - of the 11 TDF 08 young riders who were in this TDF ITT - Schleck's is the 2nd SMALLEST improvement, mean was 1'34".

Not saying he's not jacked either - but data SUGGESTS (not proves) minimal change in pharmaceutical regime.

...Astarloza had a good ITT for him compared with last year...
In Annecy ITT wind played a significant role. Weather changed, and of course valley wind which is linked with local thermal activity of mountains, Annecy is famous for his paragliding sites. So a serious effect on race.
The first part Annecy-Doussard was done with backwind, the return, along the other side of the Lake, until the Buffy climb was headwind. The second part was shorter (half distance), so riders who started the last had a signifiant advantage on Cancellara.
 
red_explosions said:
Forgive my ignorance but what's longitudinal testing?

To my understanding, it's more of less the bio-passport. Sure someone will elaborate further.

Athletes are monitored by doctors at regular intervals. The medical data forms a record. Anomalies and irregularities (like wild variations in certain values) will lead to a closer scrutiny of the rider, who will be "targeted" with more direct doping tests.
 
Jul 25, 2009
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poupou said:
In Annecy ITT wind played a significant role. Weather changed, so riders who started the last had a signifiant advantage on Cancellara.

Yeah, didn't look into the wind thing because I didn't have any info, but it could definitely make a big difference. Was that a measured wind increase during the day, or just assumed from the standard micro-climate?
 
I think the wind did change as a cold front was moving in from the west. The early starters had hardly any wind while the middle starters had a brisk southerly to deal with (data from Chambery). Not sure what happened after that, local detail can be important anyway as you can get funnelling through mountains.
 
red_explosions said:
Is that for real that they don't test for several hours following a stage finish? If that's true it's just crazy. Why not just cart them off immediately post stage for controls? It doesn't take a genius to figure out that a rider is most vulnerable to being busted right at the finish. If he's boosted ^50% at the start in order to make max gains during the stage, then he's likely to still be ^50% after the stage finish, as there is little/no opportunity to dilute during the stage. Waiting a couple hours is just dumb. You can easily take a few bags of IV saline/colloids during that time.
The testers take the ususal urine samples to search for the typical doping products, but not the blood samples which are crucial information for the Bio Passport. The main reason is that riders claim that the de-hydration produces the hematocrit count to rise and therefore it might misslead the results. Here is a link to Dr. Ferraris take on this topic.

http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=article&id=24

Elapid, onother forum member who is a Doctor, wrote a while back that there is a simple test to verify that the high hemotacrit is actrually due to de-hydration and not artifiacially manipulated. But it looks like nothing has been done about it. Just like why they don't test right before the stage starts.
 
Jun 29, 2009
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Escarabajo said:
The testers take the ususal urine samples to search for the typical doping products, but not the blood samples which are crucial information for the Bio Passport. The main reason is that riders claim that the de-hydration produces the hematocrit count to rise and therefore it might misslead the results. Here is a link to Dr. Ferraris take on this topic.

http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=article&id=24

Elapid, onother forum member who is a Doctor, wrote a while back that there is a simple test to verify that the high hemotacrit is actrually due to de-hydration and not articiacially manipulated. But it looks like nothing has been done about it. Just like why they don't test right before the stage starts.
Hey thanks for the link. Very interesting article. I'm no haematologist but I'm not convinced by the extent of some of the claims he's making.

If I remember rightly Matt Rendell had a crack at debunking the whole dehydration argument in The Death of Marco Pantani. Can't remember the specifics of it but he seemed to have it nailed on that Pantani's positive in 1999 couldn't have been due to dehydration. I'd have to get the book out again to get the precise details.
 
Mar 11, 2009
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R.0.t.O said:
Is that a joke? Freaking hilarious. You'll have a long wait for news of anyone on one of Bruyneel's teams testing positive - next year when he's on another team he may well go down. These boys have all the bases covered: the most cutting-edge doping technology plus the best contacts in high places.

This perfectly sums up my thoughts. Berto better have eyes in the back of his head next year or he'll end up riding folding bicycles with Heras.
 
Jul 7, 2009
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Mr.DNA said:
This perfectly sums up my thoughts. Berto better have eyes in the back of his head next year or he'll end up riding folding bicycles with Heras.

If Bert gets popped once he has parted ways, I am not sure I'd be too surprised. It would be interesting to see others reactions though (like his ex-team mates)! Of course, that is my morbid humor :p
 
Jul 22, 2009
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You wouldn't suppose that JB could rest on his laurels and not have anything to do with doping riders ? His team could come in last place for a year or two and he could still make big bucks as the manager. If he gets caught having anything to do with doping and he could be sleeping in a jail cell. The reward for the risk does not fit.
 
May 1, 2009
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Laszlo said:
You wouldn't suppose that JB could rest on his laurels and not have anything to do with doping riders ? His team could come in last place for a year or two and he could still make big bucks as the manager. If he gets caught having anything to do with doping and he could be sleeping in a jail cell. The reward for the risk does not fit.

There is no way his ego could handle that. This is the man who isn't happy with a Tour de France win. He wants multiple riders on the podium, and the team classification. I couldn't see him being happy with resting on his laurels for a one day race, let alone a year or two.

And you would be surprised how fast the money dries up if you are placing last for a year or more, have a look at the money made by some of the last placed teams. Lampre took home 17,000 euros for the TdF - that wouldn't even cover their food bill for the tour!
 
Mar 10, 2009
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boalio said:
There is no way his ego could handle that. This is the man who isn't happy with a Tour de France win. He wants multiple riders on the podium, and the team classification. I couldn't see him being happy with resting on his laurels for a one day race, let alone a year or two.

And you would be surprised how fast the money dries up if you are placing last for a year or more, have a look at the money made by some of the last placed teams. Lampre took home 17,000 euros for the TdF - that wouldn't even cover their food bill for the tour!

i was amazed when I saw the figures. DO they get start money any more ?

Makes you wonder how some teams find the money to stay racing
 
Laszlo said:
So, where would they get money for doping ?
Just based on the Operacion Puerto files, the riders were paying for the drugs themselves out of their pockets. These riders specifically had high enough salaries to cover for the doping products. I am sure riders like Armstrong, Ullrich and Company do not rely solely on the prizes to cover the expenses. Cycling, in my opinion, is one of the least rewarded sports when it concerns to race prizes.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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I'm refering to systematic team doping as is alleged to be throughout the peleton; the small teams having a limited budget cobbled together from a number of sponsors and being required to account for those dimes and nicklels wouldn't be able to have a big black chunk on the pie chart labeled secret sauce...it would be pretty hard to hide expensive pharmacuticals.
 
May 1, 2009
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Laszlo said:
I'm refering to systematic team doping as is alleged to be throughout the peleton; the small teams having a limited budget cobbled together from a number of sponsors and being required to account for those dimes and nicklels wouldn't be able to have a big black chunk on the pie chart labeled secret sauce...it would be pretty hard to hide expensive pharmacuticals.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/features/chain2.shtml

This is a link to an extract from Willy Voet's book about Festina, he talks a bit about how the team organised systematic doping. They would probably be listed under medical expenses.

Willy's book is pretty interesting. I find it kind of ironic that now the word Festina is associated with the most horrendous doping scandal in all of cycling, but I think Festina were actually being less 'devious' than most of the other teams by bringing it out in the open, controlling it and creating a fairer and maybe less dangerous sytem.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Thank for the link. Festina wasn't a small team though; the owner of Festina watches was a cycling enthusiast, willing to throw a lot of money to his sport.
It's worth noting that not everyone on Festina threw into the scheme.

But it's hard to say, it appears there are a number of high-school footballers who are doping hoping to get good and land a rich contract. Heck, I even worked with one guy 20 years ago who got into steriods at the gym- he turned himself into an ape over a few months. All those cheap drugs are detectable though- and if a bunch of Jamacian runners can afford the more expensive ones, then I guess it's not beyond small team riders to "invest in better results" out of their own pocket. Sad.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Laszlo said:
Thank for the link. Festina wasn't a small team though; the owner of Festina watches was a cycling enthusiast, willing to throw a lot of money to his sport.
It's worth noting that not everyone on Festina threw into the scheme.

But it's hard to say, it appears there are a number of high-school footballers who are doping hoping to get good and land a rich contract. Heck, I even worked with one guy 20 years ago who got into steriods at the gym- he turned himself into an ape over a few months. All those cheap drugs are detectable though- and if a bunch of Jamacian runners can afford the more expensive ones, then I guess it's not beyond small team riders to "invest in better results" out of their own pocket. Sad.

there is another thread on here about that telling anyone who is thinking about drugs not to do it.

Taking a look at a few of the sites you have no idea what they are really sending you via the post, if indeed they don't just take your money.

Plus with no medical knowledge there is no way anyone should be injecting anything into themselves
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Even if there were absolutely no physically ill effects- not-cheating is just a matter of personal honour and pride, some people are just slime and scumbags and have no concept of self-respect. Citizens vs troglodytes. Citizens govern themselves. Trogs need to be conquered.
 

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